Good Policy Choices Even When Voters Entertain Biased Beliefs: A Model with Endogenous Valence

In “The Myth of the Rational Voter” Brian Caplan shows that voters entertain systematically biased beliefs on a number of essential issues of economic policy and concludes that this leads democracies to choose bad policies. We introduce the psychological concept of mental models to address voters’ naive reasoning about the economy and thereby explain the persistent bias in beliefs. Next, we develop a game-theoretical model to show that this does not automatically lead to bad policy choices. The model formalizes Caplan’s thought experiment No. 4 by introducing endogenous party valence to a model of probabilistic voting. In so doing, we provide an investigation of when good policies are chosen in democracy. Based on our findings, we discuss the impact of different political institutions on economic outcomes.Voting behaviour, dynamic party competition, valence, VP-functions, biased voting

A Return of Trust? Future of Democracy 01.2020 May 2020.

The initial phase of the corona crisis has led to a significant improvement in the levels of confidence that Germans have in their state and government. More than two-thirds of all people in Germany currently regard the state as being “rather strong” or “very strong.” This means that the level of trust has risen by 23 percentage points since the end of 2019. At the same time, less than a quarter (23%) still think the state is “rather weak” or “very weak.” That is only about half as many people as at the end of 2019. In addition, more than twice as many people (49%) compared to last year, consider our government to be “strong enough,” and only half as many currently view the political system and political stability as weaknesses. Satisfaction with the government has also reached a high level as compared to other countries. Thus, the initial phase of combating the pandemic has led to a massive return of trust in the state’s and the government’s ability to act. The current trust levels are the highest seen in more than twenty years. Although there was still talk at the end of 2019 of an “erosion of trust,” public sentiment has turned completely around during the first phase of the crisis. But how stable are these figures? In any case, one thing is certain: The measured confidence levels are situation-related “performance evaluations.” In other words, they depict sentiments related to an ongoing event. If the assessed event changes, trust levels can also change again. In the process, short-term setbacks are just as imaginable as further consolidation or improvement. Therefore, the measured values represent situation-specific sentiments rather than basic convictions independent of current events. Nevertheless, they do show that the first phase of combating the pandemic has led to a significant increase in popular trust in the government. This freshly gained capital could still be needed in subsequent phases, so it must not be carelessly squandered in the phase of initial easing that is just now beginning

Übungsaufgaben zu Öffentliche Finanzen

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Forgivingness of an Anteromedially Positioned Small Locked Plate for High Tibial Osteotomy in Case of Overcorrection and Lateral Hinge Fracture

High tibial osteotomy (HTO) represents a sensible treatment option for patients with moderate unicondylar osteoarthritis of the knee and extraarticular malalignment. The possibility of a continuously variable correction setting and a surgical approach low in complications has meant that the medial opening osteotomy has prevailed over the past decades. The objective of the present study was to determine whether anteromedially positioned small plates are nevertheless forgiving under biomechanically unfavourable conditions (overcorrection and lateral hinge fracture). In this study, a simulated HTO was performed on composite tibiae with a 10-mm wedge and fixed-angle anteromedial osteosynthesis with a small implant. Force was applied axially in a neutral mechanical axis, a slight and a marked overcorrection into valgus, with and without a lateral hinge fracture in each case. At the same time, a physiological gait with a dual-peak force profile and a peak load of 2.4 kN was simulated. Interfragmentary motion and rigidity were determined. The rigidity of the osteosynthesis increased over the cycles investigated. A slight overcorrection into valgus led to the lowest interfragmentary motion, compared with pronounced valgisation and neutral alignment. A lateral hinge fracture led to a significant decrease in rigidity and increase in interfragmentary motion. However, in no case was the limit of 1 mm interfragmentary motion critical for osteotomy healing exceeded. The degree of correction of the leg axis, and the presence of a lateral hinge fracture, have an influence on rigidity and interfragmentary motion. From a mechanically neutral axis ranging up to pronounced overcorrection, the implant investigated offers sufficient stability to allow healing of the osteotomy, even if a lateral hinge fracture is present

Inadequate medical treatment of patients with coronary artery disease by primary care physicians in Germany

Aims: The DETECT study was performed to obtain representative data about the frequency, distribution, and treatment of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) in the primary care setting in Germany. Methods and results: The DETECT study was a cross–sectional clinical– epidemiological survey of a nationally representative sample of 3795 primary care offices and 55 518 patients. Overall, 12.4% of patients were diagnosed with CAD. Stable angina pectoris and myocardial infarction were the most frequent (4.2%) subgroups, followed by status post (s/p) percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI, 3.0%) and s/p coronary bypass surgery (2.2%). Patients with CAD were prescribed AT1 receptor antagonists (in 19.4% of cases), beta blockers (57.2%), ACE inhibitors (49.9%), antiplatelet agents (52.7%), statins (43.0%), and long–term nitrates (24.5%). When comparing all CAD patients with social health care insurance to those who had private insurance, private patients had significantly higher rates of revascularisation procedures and use of preventive medications. Conclusion: Great potential remains for improving secondary prevention in primary care in Germany to reduce the risk of further coronary or vascular events, especially in patients with social health care insurance

Determining Vitamin D Status: A Comparison between Commercially Available Assays

Background: Vitamin D is not only important for bone health but can also affect the development of several non-bone diseases. The definition of vitamin D insufficiency by serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D depends on the clinical outcome but might also be a consequence of analytical methods used for the definition. Although numerous 25-hydroxyvitamin D assays are available, their comparability is uncertain. We therefore aim to investigate the precision, accuracy and clinical consequences of differences in performance between three common commercially available assays. Methodology/Principal Findings: Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels from 204 twins from the Swedish Twin Registry were determined with high-pressure liquid chromatography-atmospheric pressure chemical ionization-mass spectrometry (HPLCAPCI-MS), a radioimmunoassay (RIA) and a chemiluminescent immunoassay (CLIA). High inter-assay disagreement was found. Mean 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels were highest for the HPLC-APCI-MS technique (85 nmol/L, 95% CI 81-89), intermediate for RIA (70 nmol/L, 95% CI 66-74) and lowest with CLIA (60 nmol/L, 95% CI 56-64). Using a 50-nmol/L cut-off, 8% of the subjects were insufficient using HPLC-APCI-MS, 22% with RIA and 43% by CLIA. Because of the heritable component of 25-hydroxyvitamin D status, the accuracy of each method could indirectly be assessed by comparison of within-twin pair correlations. The strongest correlation was found for HPLC-APCI-MS (r = 0.7), intermediate for RIA (r = 0.5) and lowest for CLIA (r = 0.4). Regression analyses between the methods revealed a non-uniform variance (p<0.0001) depending on level of 25-hydroxyvitamin D. Conclusions/Significance: There are substantial inter-assay differences in performance. The most valid method was HPLCAPCI-MS. Calibration between 25-hydroxyvitamin D assays is intricate

Rationale and Plan for Vitamin D Food Fortification : A Review and Guidance Paper

Vitamin D deficiency can lead to musculoskeletal diseases such as rickets and osteomalacia, but vitamin D supplementation may also prevent extraskeletal diseases such as respiratory tract infections, asthma exacerbations, pregnancy complications and premature deaths. Vitamin D has a unique metabolism as it is mainly obtained through synthesis in the skin under the influence of sunlight (i.e., ultraviolet-B radiation) whereas intake by nutrition traditionally plays a relatively minor role. Dietary guidelines for vitamin D are based on a consensus that serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations are used to assess vitamin D status, with the recommended target concentrations ranging from >= 25 to >= 50 nmol/L (>= 10->= 20 ng/mL), corresponding to a daily vitamin D intake of 10 to 20 mu g (400-800 international units). Most populations fail to meet these recommended dietary vitamin D requirements. In Europe, 25(OH)D concentrations <30 nmol/L (12 ng/mL) and <50 nmol/L (20 ng/mL) are present in 13.0 and 40.4% of the general population, respectively. This substantial gap between officially recommended dietary reference intakes for vitamin D and the high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in the general population requires action from health authorities. Promotion of a healthier lifestyle with more outdoor activities and optimal nutrition are definitely warranted but will not erase vitamin D deficiency and must, in the case of sunlight exposure, be well balanced with regard to potential adverse effects such as skin cancer. Intake of vitamin D supplements is limited by relatively poor adherence (in particular in individuals with low-socioeconomic status) and potential for overdosing. Systematic vitamin D food fortification is, however, an effective approach to improve vitamin D status in the general population, and this has already been introduced by countries such as the US, Canada, India, and Finland. Recent advances in our knowledge on the safety of vitamin D treatment, the dose-response relationship of vitamin D intake and 25(OH)D levels, as well as data on the effectiveness of vitamin D fortification in countries such as Finland provide a solid basis to introduce and modify vitamin D food fortification in order to improve public health with this likewise cost-effective approach.Peer reviewe

A re-examination of otoconia from the Shaker mouse

We have studied saccular and utricular otoconia from Shaker-1 and Shaker-2 mice by X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy. In contrast to previous reports, we found that the crystals were composed of calcite rather than poly crystalline hydroxylapatite. These crystals were indistinguishable mineralogically and morphologically from normal mouse otoconia. The reported occurrence of hydroxylapatite otoconia in the Shaker mouse is probably false.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47271/1/405_2004_Article_BF00464412.pd

Cell fusions in mammals

Cell fusions are important to fertilization, placentation, development of skeletal muscle and bone, calcium homeostasis and the immune defense system. Additionally, cell fusions participate in tissue repair and may be important to cancer development and progression. A large number of factors appear to regulate cell fusions, including receptors and ligands, membrane domain organizing proteins, proteases, signaling molecules and fusogenic proteins forming alpha-helical bundles that bring membranes close together. The syncytin family of proteins represent true fusogens and the founding member, syncytin-1, has been documented to be involved in fusions between placental trophoblasts, between cancer cells and between cancer cells and host cells. We review the literature with emphasis on the syncytin family and propose that syncytins may represent universal fusogens in primates and rodents, which work together with a number of other proteins to regulate the cell fusion machinery