Target atmospheric CO2: Supporting material

Additional material supporting the article "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?"Comment: 27 pages, 21 figures; final version accepted by Open Science Atmospheric Journal; main article separately submitted to arXiv as "Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?", arxiv:0804.112

Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change

Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1{\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global warming. Thus goals to limit human-made warming to 2{\deg}C are not sufficient - they are prescriptions for disaster. Ice sheet disintegration is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. We suggest that ice sheet mass loss, if warming continues unabated, will be characterized better by a doubling time for mass loss rate than by a linear trend. Satellite gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level rise this century. Observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss supports our conclusion that Earth's temperature now exceeds the mean Holocene value. Rapid reduction of fossil fuel emissions is required for humanity to succeed in preserving a planet resembling the one on which civilization developed.Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures; final version accepted for publication in "Climate Change at the Eve of the Second Decade of the Century: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects: Proceedings of Milutin Milankovitch 130th Anniversary Symposium" (eds. Berger, Mesinger and Sijaci

Targeted Analysis of Serum Proteins Encoded at Known Inflammatory Bowel Disease Risk Loci

Few studies have investigated the blood proteome of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We characterized the serum abundance of proteins encoded at 163 known IBD risk loci and tested these proteins for their biomarker discovery potential. Based on the Human Protein Atlas (HPA) antibody availability, 218 proteins from genes mapping at 163 IBD risk loci were selected. Targeted serum protein profiles from 49 Crohns disease (CD) patients, 51 ulcerative colitis (UC) patients, and 50 sex- and age-matched healthy individuals were obtained using multiplexed antibody suspension bead array assays. Differences in relative serum abundance levels between disease groups and controls were examined. Replication was attempted for CD-UC comparisons (including disease subtypes) by including 64 additional patients (33 CD and 31 UC). Antibodies targeting a potentially novel risk protein were validated by paired antibodies, Western blot, immuno-capture mass spectrometry, and epitope mapping. By univariate analysis, 13 proteins mostly related to neutrophil, T-cell, and B-cell activation and function were differentially expressed in IBD patients vs healthy controls, 3 in CD patients vs healthy controls and 2 in UC patients vs healthy controls (q <0.01). Multivariate analyses further differentiated disease groups from healthy controls and CD subtypes from UC (P <0.05). Extended characterization of an antibody targeting a novel, discriminative serum marker, the laccase (multicopper oxidoreductase) domain containing 1 (LACC1) protein, provided evidence for antibody on-target specificity. Using affinity proteomics, we identified a set of IBD-associated serum proteins encoded at IBD risk loci. These candidate proteins hold the potential to be exploited as diagnostic biomarkers of IBD.Peer reviewe

New constraints on atmospheric CO2 concentration for the Phanerozoic

Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentration (ca) for the Phanerozoic Eon is estimated from proxies and geochemical carbon cycle models. Most estimates come with large, sometimes unbounded uncertainty. Here, we calculate tightly constrained estimates of ca using a universal equation for leaf gas exchange, with key variables obtained directly from the carbon isotope composition and stomatal anatomy of fossil leaves. Our new estimates, validated against ice cores and direct measurements of ca, are less than 1000 ppm for most of the Phanerozoic, from the Devonian to the present, coincident with the appearance and global proliferation of forests. Uncertainties, obtained from Monte Carlo simulations, are typically less than for ca estimates from other approaches. These results provide critical new empirical support for the emerging view that large (~2000-3000 ppm), long-term swings in ca do not characterize the post-Devonian and that Earth's long-term climate sensitivity to ca is greater than originally thought. Key Points A novel CO2 proxy calculates past atmospheric CO2 with improved certainty CO2 is unlikely to have exceeded ~1000 ppm for extended periods post Devonian Earth's long-term climate sensitivity to CO2 is greater than originally thought

Phylogenetic and environmental context of a Tournaisian tetrapod fauna

The end-Devonian to mid-Mississippian time interval has long been known for its depauperate palaeontological record, especially for tetrapods. This interval encapsulates the time of increasing terrestriality among tetrapods, but only two Tournaisian localities previously produced tetrapod fossils. Here we describe five new Tournaisian tetrapods ($\textit{Perittodus apsconditus}$, $\textit{Koilops herma}$, $\textit{Ossirarus kierani}$, $\textit{Diploradus austiumensis}$ and $\textit{Aytonerpeton microps}$) from two localities in their environmental context. A phylogenetic analysis retrieved three taxa as stem tetrapods, interspersed among Devonian and Carboniferous forms, and two as stem amphibians, suggesting a deep split among crown tetrapods. We also illustrate new tetrapod specimens from these and additional localities in the Scottish Borders region. The new taxa and specimens suggest that tetrapod diversification was well established by the Tournaisian. Sedimentary evidence indicates that the tetrapod fossils are usually associated with sandy siltstones overlying wetland palaeosols. Tetrapods were probably living on vegetated surfaces that were subsequently flooded. We show that atmospheric oxygen levels were stable across the Devonian/Carboniferous boundary, and did not inhibit the evolution of terrestriality. This wealth of tetrapods from Tournaisian localities highlights the potential for discoveries elsewhere.NERC consortium grants NE/J022713/1 (Cambridge), NE/J020729/1 (Leicester), NE/J021067/1 (BGS), NE/J020621/1 (NMS) and NE/J021091/1 (Southampton

Stepwise oxygenation of the Paleozoic atmosphere

Oxygen is essential for animal life, and while geochemical proxies have been instrumental in determining the broad evolutionary history of oxygen on Earth, much of our insight into Phanerozoic oxygen comes from biogeochemical modelling. The GEOCARBSULF model utilizes carbon and sulphur isotope records to produce the most detailed history of Phanerozoic atmospheric O2 currently available. However, its predictions for the Paleozoic disagree with geochemical proxies, and with non-isotope modelling. Here we show that GEOCARBSULF oversimplifies the geochemistry of sulphur isotope fractionation, returning unrealistic values for the O2 sourced from pyrite burial when oxygen is low. We rebuild the model from first principles, utilizing an improved numerical scheme, the latest carbon isotope data, and we replace the sulphur cycle equations in line with forwards modelling approaches. Our new model, GEOCARBSULFOR, produces a revised, highly-detailed prediction for Phanerozoic O2 that is consistent with available proxy data, and independently supports a Paleozoic Oxygenation Event, which likely contributed to the observed radiation of complex, diverse fauna at this time

Summer warming explains widespread but not uniform greening in the Arctic tundra biome

Arctic warming can influence tundra ecosystem function with consequences for climate feedbacks, wildlife and human communities. Yet ecological change across the Arctic tundra biome remains poorly quantified due to field measurement limitations and reliance on coarse-resolution satellite data. Here, we assess decadal changes in Arctic tundra greenness using time series from the 30 m resolution Landsat satellites. From 1985 to 2016 tundra greenness increased (greening) at ~37.3% of sampling sites and decreased (browning) at ~4.7% of sampling sites. Greening occurred most often at warm sampling sites with increased summer air temperature, soil temperature, and soil moisture, while browning occurred most often at cold sampling sites that cooled and dried. Tundra greenness was positively correlated with graminoid, shrub, and ecosystem productivity measured at field sites. Our results support the hypothesis that summer warming stimulated plant productivity across much, but not all, of the Arctic tundra biome during recent decades