Adaptation et évaluation d'un système d'anticipation de crues éclair sur des bassins de montagne non-jaugés

En Europe, les crues éclair affectent principalement les régions méditerranéennes et montagneuses. Les bassins concernés sont le plus souvent de petite taille. Anticiper ce type d'événements demeure un exercice ardu parsemé de multiples difficultés. Cette thèse s'inscrit dans le cadre d'un projet commun à IRSTEA et Météo-France (projet RHYTMME) et ses deux objectifs sont :l'adaptation de modèle hydrologique de la méthode AIGA aux régions montagneuses, en tenant compte des caractéristiques de cet environnement ;l'évaluation du nouveau modèle sur des bassins de petite taille, qui sont réellement non-jaugés.Pour atteindre le premier objectif, le modèle est complexifié (prise en compte de la neige), testé sur 118 bassins versants jaugés et régionalisé. Quant au second but, des relevés de dégâts, issus de la base de données des services de Restauration des Terrains en Montagne (RTM), sont utilisés afin d'évaluer le modèle sur 123 très petits bassins dans des conditions aussi proches que possible de la réalité du terrain.Pour réaliser ce second objectif, une méthode d'évaluation est développée, fondée sur des statistiques de contingence, illustrant la concomitance entre dégâts observés et dépassement de seuil des débits simulés. Il est proposé un graphe renseignant le taux de détection (POD) et le taux de succès (SR) pour différents seuils simultanément à l'instar des courbes de ROC. Le principal résultat est qu'une évaluation sur bassins jaugés est une première étape nécessaire mais pas suffisante. En effet, les travaux illustrent le fait que les meilleurs modèles sur les bassins jaugés ne le sont pas forcément sur les petits bassins non-jaugés, sujets aux crues éclair.In Europe, flash floods primarily occur in the Mediterranean and mountainous areas. The concerned basins are often small and ungauged with a short lag time. Anticipating such events is a tricky task with many difficulties. This thesis is part of a common project between Irstea and Météo-France (RHYTMME project) with two objectives : the adaptation of the hydrological model of AIGA method to the mountainous areas, taking into account the environment characteristics the evaluation of the new model on small basins, which are actually ungauged. To achieve the first objective, the model is complicated by the integration of a snow modelling on 118 gauged basins. Then the model is regionalized. The second objective is to use flood reports from the mountain area restoration services database (services de Restauration des Terrains en Montagne (RTM)). The model is evaluated with these reports on 123 very small basins under conditions as close to as possible the reality. To overcome the second objective, an evaluation method is developed, based on contingency statistics, illustrating the coincidence between observed damages and threshold crossing by simulated flows. A graphic with the probability of detection (POD) according to the success rate (SR) is introduced for different thresholds. Thereby, a multi-threshold approach is used to compare hydrological models like ROC-curves. The main result, highlighted by this thesis is an evaluation on gauged basins is a necessary first step but not sufficient. Indeed, the works illustrate that the decided compromises on the large gauged basins don?t lead automatically to the best performances on the small basins occurring flash floods.PARIS-JUSSIEU-Bib.électronique (751059901) / SudocSudocFranceF

New Constraints on the Galactic Halo Magnetic Field using Rotation Measures of Extragalactic Sources Towards the Outer Galaxy

We present a study of the Milky Way disk and halo magnetic field, determined from observations of Faraday rotation measure (RM) towards 641 polarized extragalactic radio sources in the Galactic longitude range 100-117 degs, within 30 degs of the Galactic plane. For |b| < 15 degs, we observe a symmetric RM distribution about the Galactic plane. This is consistent with a disk field in the Perseus arm of even parity across the Galactic mid-plane. In the range 15<|b|<30 degs, we find median rotation measures of -15+/-4 rad/m^2 and -62+/-5 rad/m^2 in the northern and southern Galactic hemispheres, respectively. If the RM distribution is a signature of the large-scale field parallel to the Galactic plane, this suggests that the halo magnetic field toward the outer Galaxy does not reverse direction across the mid-plane. The variation of RM as a function of Galactic latitude in this longitude range is such that RMs become more negative at larger |b|. This is consistent with an azimuthal magnetic field of strength 2 microGauss (7 microGauss) at a height 0.8-2 kpc above (below) the Galactic plane between the local and the Perseus spiral arm. We propose that the Milky Way could possess spiral-like halo magnetic fields similar to those observed in M51.Comment: 23 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in ApJ. Electronic version of Table 1 is available via email from the first autho

A Survey of Extragalactic Faraday Rotation at High Galactic Latitude: The Vertical Magnetic Field of the Milky Way towards the Galactic Poles

We present a study of the vertical magnetic field of the Milky Way towards the Galactic poles, determined from observations of Faraday rotation toward more than 1000 polarized extragalactic radio sources at Galactic latitudes |b| > 77 degs, using the Westerbork Radio Synthesis Telescope and the Australia Telescope Compact Array. We find median rotation measures (RMs) of 0.0 +/- 0.5 rad/m^2 and +6.3 +/- 0.7 rad/m^2 toward the north and south Galactic poles, respectively, demonstrating that there is no coherent vertical magnetic field in the Milky Way at the Sun's position. If this is a global property of the Milky Way's magnetism, then the lack of symmetry across the disk rules out pure dipole or quadrupole geometries for the Galactic magnetic field. The angular fluctuations in RM seen in our data show no preferred scale within the range ~ 0.1 to 25 degs. The observed standard deviation in RM of ~ 9 rad/m^2 then implies an upper limit of ~1microGauss on the strength of the random magnetic field in the warm ionized medium at high Galactic latitudes.Comment: 38 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables Accepted for publication in ApJ, Electronic versions of Tables 1 and 2 are available via email from the first autho

Defining critical thresholds for ensemble flood forecasting and warning

International audienceThe use of weather ensemble predictions in ensemble flood forecasting is an acknowledged procedure to include the uncertainty of meteorological forecasts in a probabilistic streamflow prediction system. Operational flood forecasters can thus get an overview of the probability of exceeding a critical discharge or water level, and decide on whether a flood warning should be issued or not. This process offers several challenges to forecasters: 1) how to define critical thresholds along all the rivers under survey? 2) How to link locally defined thresholds to simulated discharges, which result from models with specific spatial and temporal resolutions? 3) How to define the number of ensemble forecasts predicting the exceedance of critical thresholds necessary to launch a warning? This study focuses on this third challenge. We investigate the optimal number of ensemble members exceeding a critical discharge in order to issue a flood warning. The optimal probabilistic threshold is the one that minimizes the number of false alarms and misses, while it optimizes the number of flood events correctly forecasted. Furthermore, in our study, an optimal probabilistic threshold also maximizes flood preparedness: the gain in lead-time compared to a deterministic forecast. Data used to evaluate critical thresholds for ensemble flood forecasting come from a selection of 208 catchments in France, which covers a wide range of the hydroclimatic conditions (including catchment size) encountered in the country. The GRP hydrological forecasting model, a lumped soil-moisture-accounting type rainfall-runoff model, is used. The model is driven by the 10-day ECMWF deterministic and ensemble (51 members) precipitation forecasts for a period of 18 months. A trade-off between the number of hits, misses, false alarms and the gain in lead time is sought to find the optimal number of ensemble members exceeding the critical discharge. These optimal probability thresholds are further explored in order to search for correlations with catchment characteristics, forecast lead-time and discharge thresholds

The Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX): Its structure, connection to other international initiatives and future directions

The Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) is an international project aimed at developing enhanced techniques for the a priori estimation of parameters in hydrologic models and in land surface parameterization schemes connected to atmospheric models. The MOPEX science strategy involves: database creation, a priori parameter estimation methodology development, parameter refinement or calibration, and the demonstration of parameter transferability. A comprehensive MOPEX database has been developed that contains historical hydrometeorological data and land surface characteristics data for many hydrologic basins in the United States (US) and in other countries. This database is being continuously expanded to include basins from various hydroclimatic regimes throughout the world. MOPEX research has largely been driven by a series of international workshops that have brought interested hydrologists and land surface modelers together to exchange knowledge and experience in developing and applying parameter estimation techniques. With its focus on parameter estimation, MOPEX plays an important role in the international context of other initiatives such as GEWEX, PUB and PILPS. This paper outlines the MOPEX initiative, discusses its role in the scientific community and briefly states future directions

Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX): Overview and Summary of the Second and Third Workshop Results

Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) is an international project aimed to develop enhanced techniques for the a priori estimation of parameters in hydrologic models and in land surface parameterization schemes of atmospheric models. MOPEX science strategy involves three major steps: data preparation, a priori parameter estimation methodology development, and demonstration of parameter transferability. A comprehensive MOPEX database has been developed that contains historical hydrometeorological data and land surface characteristics data for many hydrologic basins in the United States and in other countries. This database is continuing to be expanded to include more basins in all parts of the world. A number of international MOPEX workshops have been convened to bring together interested hydrologists and land surface modelers from all over world to exchange knowledge and experience in developing a priori parameter estimation techniques. This paper describes the results from the second and third MOPEX workshops. The specific objective of those workshops is to examine the state of a priori parameter estimation techniques and how they can be potentially improved with observations from well-monitored hydrologic basins. Participants of these MOPEX workshops were given data for 12 basins in the Southeastern United States and were asked to carry out a series of numerical experiments using a priori parameters as well as calibrated parameters developed for their respective hydrologic models. Eight different models have carried all out the required numerical experiments and the results from those models have been assembled for analysis in this paper. This paper presents an overview of the MOPEX experiment design. The experimental results are analyzed and the important lessons from the two workshops are discussed. Finally, a discussion of further work and future strategy is given

Optimizing hydrological consistency by incorporating hydrological signatures into model calibration objectives

© American Geophysical Union: Shafii, M., & Tolson, B. A. (2015). Optimizing hydrological consistency by incorporating hydrological signatures into model calibration objectives. Water Resources Research, 51(5), 3796–3814. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016520The simulated outcome of a calibrated hydrologic model should be hydrologically consistent with the measured response data. Hydrologic modelers typically calibrate models to optimize residual-based goodness-of-fit measures, e.g., the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measure, and then evaluate the obtained results with respect to hydrological signatures, e.g., the flow duration curve indices. The literature indicates that the consideration of a large number of hydrologic signatures has not been addressed in a full multiobjective optimization context. This research develops a model calibration methodology to achieve hydrological consistency using goodness-of-fit measures, many hydrological signatures, as well as a level of acceptability for each signature. The proposed framework relies on a scoring method that transforms any hydrological signature to a calibration objective. These scores are used to develop the hydrological consistency metric, which is maximized to obtain hydrologically consistent parameter sets during calibration. This consistency metric is implemented in different signature-based calibration formulations that adapt the sampling according to hydrologic signature values. These formulations are compared with the traditional formulations found in the literature for seven case studies. The results reveal that Pareto dominance-based multiobjective optimization yields the highest level of consistency among all formulations. Furthermore, it is found that the choice of optimization algorithms does not affect the findings of this research.NSERCDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering at University of Waterlo

Two randomised and placebo-controlled studies of an oral prostacyclin analogue (Iloprost) in severe leg ischaemia [The Oral Iloprost in severe Leg Ischaemia Study Group]

Two separate studies are described using the same prostacyclin analogue in a similar group of patients. Objectives: to assess the tolerability and efficacy of two dose regimens of oral Iloprost compared with placebo in the treatment of patients with ischaemic ulcers, gangrene or rest pain due to severe arterial disease over a period of 4 weeks (Study A) and one year (Study B). Design: multicentre, placebo controlled, double-blind, randomized prospective studies. Subjects & Methods: 178 (study A) and 624 (study B) patients with trophic skin lesions (ulcers or gangrene) or ischaemic rest pain due to severe arterial disease. To confirm severe arterial disease patients were required to have a systolic ankle Doppler pressure of 70 mmHg or less or a toe systolic Doppler pressure of 50 mmHg or less in one leg.In both studies patients were randomly allocated to three treatment groups: placebo, low dose Iloprost (50\u2013100 g twice a day) or high dose (150\u2013200 g twice a day) In Study A the main outcome measures were tolerability of different doses of Iloprost and death, major amputation, healing of trophic lesions and relief of rest pain at the end of the follow up, which was 5 months after the end of the treatment. In Study B the primary end point was time to major amputation and stroke or death up to 12 months. Secondary pre-defined end points included the combined end point of patients alive without amputation, no trophic skin changes, no rest pain and not on regular analgesics. Results: the proportion of patients who completed the 4-week treatment period in Study A at the intended dose was 58%, 43%, 45% respectively in the placebo, low dose and high dose Iloprost groups. In an intention to treat analysis the proportion of patients who survived without major amputation, ulcers or gangrene and had no rest pain was 11% in the placebo group, 19% in the low dose iloprost group and 28% in the high dose Iloprost group. The pooled Iloprost groups showed a statistically significantly better result than the placebo group (p=0.04), as did the high dose Iloprost group compared to the placebo (p=0.014). In Study B there was no treatment benefit in terms of a primary end point of amputation and death. However the secondary combined end point of patients who survived without a major amputation, ulcers or gangrene and had no rest pain, nor a need for regular analgesia was favourable for Iloprost, with 18% of patients in the placebo group reaching this optimal secondary end point, compared to 23% in the low dose Iloprost group and 26% in the higher dose Iloprost group (p<0.05). Conclusions: oral Iloprost administered for a year showed no clear benefit in patients with advanced severe leg ischaemia (PAOD III and IV). The results obtained with 4 weeks\u2019 treatment in Study A and in previous trials of intravenous Iloprost could not be reproduce