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Do we (need to) care about canopy radiation schemes in DGVMs? Caveats and potential impacts
Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are an essential part of current state-of-the-art Earth system models. In recent years, the complexity of DGVMs has increased by incorporating new important processes like, e.g., nutrient cycling and land cover dynamics, while biogeophysical processes like surface radiation have not been developed much further. Canopy radiation models are however very important for the estimation of absorption and reflected fluxes and are essential for a proper estimation of surface carbon, energy and water fluxes.
The present study provides an overview of current implementations of canopy radiation schemes in a couple of state-of-the-art DGVMs and assesses their accuracy in simulating canopy absorption and reflection for a variety of different surface conditions. Systematic deviations in surface albedo and fractions of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation (faPAR) are identified and potential impacts are assessed.
The results show clear deviations for both, absorbed and reflected, surface solar radiation fluxes. FaPAR is typically underestimated, which results in an underestimation of gross primary productivity (GPP) for the investigated cases. The deviation can be as large as 25% in extreme cases. Deviations in surface albedo range between −0.15 ≤ Δα ≤ 0.36, with a slight positive bias on the order of Δα ≈ 0.04. Potential radiative forcing caused by albedo deviations is estimated at −1.25 ≤ RF ≤ −0.8 (W m−2), caused by neglect of the diurnal cycle of surface albedo.
The present study is the first one that provides an assessment of canopy RT schemes in different currently used DGVMs together with an assessment of the potential impact of the identified deviations. The paper illustrates that there is a general need to improve the canopy radiation schemes in DGVMs and provides different perspectives for their improvement
Антибіотикопрофілактика в хірургії
Наук. кер.: М.Г. КононенкоГнійно-запальні післяопераційні ускладнення за останні десятиріччя набувають все більшої актуальності. Це вже стає проблемою. Такі ускладнення необхідно попереджувати. Для забезпечення тканин операційного поля антибіотиком у ефективній (бактерицидній) концентрації на весь період хірургічного втручання проводять антибіотикопрофілактику (АБП). Вона є складовою частиною комплексної профілактики гнійно-запальних ускладнень.
При цитуванні документа, використовуйте посилання http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/2734
N deposition and elevated CO2 on methane emissions: Differential responses of indirect effects compared to direct effects through litter chemistry feedbacks
Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and N deposition are expected to affect methane (CH4) production in soils and emission to the atmosphere, directly through increased plant litter production and indirectly through changes in substrate quality. We examined how CH4 emission responded to changes in litter quality under increased N and CO2, beyond differences in CH4 resulting from changes in litter production. We used senesced leaves from 13C-labeled plants of Molinia caerulea grown at elevated and ambient CO2 and affected by N fertilization to carry out two experiments: a laboratory litter incubation and a pot experiment. N fertilization increased N and decreased C concentrations in litter whereas elevated CO2 decreased litter quality as reflected in litter C and N concentrations and in the composition of lignin and saturated fatty acids within the litter. In contrast to our expectations, CH4 production in the laboratory incubation decreased when using litter from N-fertilized plants as substrate, whereas litter from elevated CO2 had no effect, compared to controls without N and at ambient CO2. Owing to high within-treatment variability in CH4 emissions, none of the treatment effects were reflected in the pot experiment. C mineralization rates were not affected by any of the treatments. The decrease in CH4 emissions due to indirect effects of N availability through litter quality changes (described here for the first time) contrast direct effects of N fertilization on CH4 production. The complex interaction of direct effects with indirect effects of increased N on litter quality may potentially result in a net decrease in CH4 emissions from wetlands in the long term.Fil: Pancotto, Veronica Andrea. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Austral de Investigaciones Científicas; ArgentinaFil: Bodegom, P. M. van. University Of Amsterdam; Países BajosFil: Hal, J. van. University Of Amsterdam; Países BajosFil: Logtestijn, R. S. P. van. University Of Amsterdam; Países BajosFil: Blokker, P.. University Of Amsterdam; Países BajosFil: Toet, S.. University Of Amsterdam; Países Bajos. University Of York; Reino UnidoFil: Aerts, R.. University Of Amsterdam; Países Bajo
Methane emissions from floodplains in the Amazon Basin: challenges in developing a process-based model for global applications
Tropical wetlands are estimated to represent about 50% of the natural
wetland methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) emissions and explain a large fraction of the
observed CH<sub>4</sub> variability on timescales ranging from
glacial–interglacial cycles to the currently observed year-to-year
variability. Despite their importance, however, tropical wetlands are poorly
represented in global models aiming to predict global CH<sub>4</sub> emissions.
This publication documents a first step in the development of a process-based
model of CH<sub>4</sub> emissions from tropical floodplains for global
applications. For this purpose, the LPX-Bern Dynamic Global Vegetation Model
(LPX hereafter) was slightly modified to represent floodplain hydrology,
vegetation and associated CH<sub>4</sub> emissions. The extent of tropical
floodplains was prescribed using output from the spatially explicit hydrology
model PCR-GLOBWB. We introduced new plant functional types (PFTs) that
explicitly represent floodplain vegetation. The PFT parameterizations were
evaluated against available remote-sensing data sets (GLC2000 land cover and
MODIS Net Primary Productivity). Simulated CH<sub>4</sub> flux densities were
evaluated against field observations and regional flux inventories. Simulated
CH<sub>4</sub> emissions at Amazon Basin scale were compared to model simulations
performed in the WETCHIMP intercomparison project. We found that LPX
reproduces the average magnitude of observed net CH<sub>4</sub> flux densities for
the Amazon Basin. However, the model does not reproduce the variability
between sites or between years within a site. Unfortunately, site information
is too limited to attest or disprove some model features. At the Amazon Basin
scale, our results underline the large uncertainty in the magnitude of
wetland CH<sub>4</sub> emissions. Sensitivity analyses gave insights into the main
drivers of floodplain CH<sub>4</sub> emission and their associated uncertainties.
In particular, uncertainties in floodplain extent (i.e., difference between
GLC2000 and PCR-GLOBWB output) modulate the simulated emissions by a factor
of about 2. Our best estimates, using PCR-GLOBWB in combination with GLC2000,
lead to simulated Amazon-integrated emissions of
44.4 ± 4.8 Tg yr<sup>−1</sup>. Additionally, the LPX emissions are highly
sensitive to vegetation distribution. Two simulations with the same mean PFT
cover, but different spatial distributions of grasslands within the basin,
modulated emissions by about 20%. Correcting the LPX-simulated NPP using
MODIS reduces the Amazon emissions by 11.3%. Finally, due to an
intrinsic limitation of LPX to account for seasonality in floodplain extent,
the model failed to reproduce the full dynamics in CH<sub>4</sub> emissions but we
proposed solutions to this issue. The interannual variability (IAV) of the
emissions increases by 90% if the IAV in floodplain extent is accounted
for, but still remains lower than in most of the WETCHIMP models. While our
model includes more mechanisms specific to tropical floodplains, we were
unable to reduce the uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH<sub>4</sub>
emissions of the Amazon Basin. Our results helped identify and prioritize
directions towards more accurate estimates of tropical CH<sub>4</sub> emissions,
and they stress the need for more research to constrain floodplain CH<sub>4</sub>
emissions and their temporal variability, even before including other
fundamental mechanisms such as floating macrophytes or lateral water fluxes
Local ecosystem feedbacks and critical transitions in the climate
Global and regional climate models, such as those used in IPCC assessments, are the best tools available for climate predictions. Such models typically account for large-scale land-atmosphere feedbacks. However, these models omit local vegetationenvironment 5 feedbacks that are crucial for critical transitions in ecosystems. Here, we reveal the hypothesis that, if the balance of feedbacks is positive at all scales, local vegetation-environment feedbacks may trigger a cascade of amplifying effects, propagating from local to large scale, possibly leading to critical transitions in the largescale climate. We call for linking local ecosystem feedbacks with large-scale land10 atmosphere feedbacks in global and regional climate models in order to yield climate predictions that we are more confident about
Performing a knee arthroscopy among patients with degenerative knee disease:one-third is potentially low value care
PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to assess in which proportion of patients with degenerative knee disease aged 50+ in whom a knee arthroscopy is performed, no valid surgical indication is reported in medical records, and to explore possible explanatory factors. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted using administrative data from January to December 2016 in 13 orthopedic centers in the Netherlands. Medical records were selected from a random sample of 538 patients aged 50+ with degenerative knee disease in whom arthroscopy was performed, and reviewed on reported indications for the performed knee arthroscopy. Valid surgical indications were predefined based on clinical national guidelines and expert opinion (e.g., truly locked knee). A knee arthroscopy without a reported valid indication was considered potentially low value care. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to assess whether age, diagnosis ("Arthrosis" versus "Meniscal lesion"), and type of care trajectory (initial or follow-up) were associated with performing a potentially low value knee arthroscopy. RESULTS: Of 26,991 patients with degenerative knee disease, 2556 (9.5%) underwent an arthroscopy in one of the participating orthopedic centers. Of 538 patients in whom an arthroscopy was performed, 65.1% had a valid indication reported in the medical record and 34.9% without a reported valid indication. From the patients without a valid indication, a joint patient-provider decision or patient request was reported as the main reason. Neither age [OR 1.013 (95% CI 0.984-1.043)], diagnosis [OR 0.998 (95% CI 0.886-1.124)] or type of care trajectory [OR 0.989 (95% CI 0.948-1.032)] were significantly associated with performing a potentially low value knee arthroscopy. CONCLUSIONS: In a random sample of knee arthroscopies performed in 13 orthopedic centers in 2016, 65% had valid indications reported in the medical records but 35% were performed without a reported valid indication and, therefore, potentially low value care. Patient and/or surgeons preference may play a large role in the decision to perform an arthroscopy without a valid indication. Therefore, interventions should be developed to increase adherence to clinical guidelines by surgeons that target invalid indications for a knee arthroscopy to improve care. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: IV
Preferences and beliefs of Dutch orthopaedic surgeons and patients reduce the implementation of "Choosing Wisely" recommendations in degenerative knee disease
Purpose: The purpose of this study was to assess which factors were associated with the implementation of “Choosing Wisely” recommendations to refrain from routine MRI and arthroscopy use in degenerative knee disease. Methods: Cross-sectional surveys were sent to 123 patients (response rate 95%) and 413 orthopaedic surgeons (response rate 62%) fulfilling the inclusion criteria. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with implementation of “Choosing Wisely” recommendations. Results: Factors reducing implementation of the MRI recommendation among patients included explanation of added value by an orthopaedic surgeon [OR 0.18 (95% CI 0.07–0.47)] and patient preference for MRI [OR 0.27 (95% CI 0.08–0.92)]. Factors reducing implementation among orthopaedic surgeons were higher valuation of own MRI experience than existing evidence [OR 0.41 (95% CI 0.19–0.88)] and higher estimated patients’ knowledge to participate in shared decision-making [OR 0.38 (95% CI 0.17–0.88)]. Factors reducing implementation of the arthroscopy recommendation among patients were orthopaedic surgeons’ preferences for an arthroscopy [OR 0.03 (95% CI 0.00–0.22)] and positive experiences with arthroscopy of friends/family [OR 0.03 (95% CI 0.00–0.39)]. Factors reducing implementation among orthopaedic surgeons were higher valuation of own arthroscopy experience than existing evidence [OR 0.17 (95% CI 0.07–0.46)] and belief in the added value [OR 0.28 (95% CI 0.10–0.81)]. Conclusions: Implementation of “Choosing Wisely” recommendations in degenerative knee disease can be improved by strategies to change clinician beliefs about the added value of MRIs and arthroscopies, and by patient-directed strategies addressing patient preferences and underlying beliefs for added value of MRI and arthroscopies resulting from experiences of people in their environment. Level of evidence: IV
Phase diagram of a Heisenberg spin-Peierls model with quantum phonons
Using a new version of the density-matrix renormalization group we determine
the phase diagram of a model of an antiferromagnetic Heisenberg spin chain
where the spins interact with quantum phonons. A quantum phase transition from
a gapless spin-fluid state to a gapped dimerized phase occurs at a non-zero
value of the spin-phonon coupling. The transition is in the same universality
class as that of a frustrated spin chain, which the model maps to in the
anti-adiabatic limit. We argue that realistic modeling of known spin-Peierls
materials should include the effects of quantum phonons.Comment: RevTeX, 5 pages, 3 eps figures included using epsf. Improved theories
in adiabatic and non-adiabatic regimes give better agreement with DMRG. This
version accepted in Physical Review Letter
Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)
Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two.
Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for
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