Explaining inconsistencies between data on condom use and condom sales

BACKGROUND: Several HIV prevention programs use data on condom sales and survey-based data on condom prevalence to monitor progress. However, such indicators are not always consistent. This paper aims to explain these inconsistencies and to assess whether the number of sex acts and the number of condoms used can be estimated from survey data. This would be useful for program managers, as it would enable estimation of the number of condoms needed for different target groups. METHODS: We use data from six Demographic and Health Surveys to estimate the total annual number of sex acts and number of condoms used. Estimates of the number of sex acts are based on self-reported coital frequency, the proportion reporting intercourse the previous day, and survival methods. Estimates of the number of condoms used are based on self-reported frequency of use, the proportion reporting condom use the previous day and in last intercourse. The estimated number of condoms used is then compared with reported data on condom sales and distribution. RESULTS: Analysis of data on the annual number of condoms sold and distributed to the trade reveals very erratic patterns, which reflect stock-ups at various levels in the distribution chain. Consequently, condom sales data are a very poor indicator of the level of condom use. Estimates of both the number of sexual acts and the number of condoms used vary enormously based on the estimation method used. For several surveys, the highest estimate of the annual number of condoms used is tenfold that of the lowest estimate. CONCLUSIONS: Condom sales to the trade are a poor indicator of levels of condom use, and are therefore insufficient to monitor HIV prevention programs. While survey data on condom prevalence allow more detailed monitoring, converting such data to an estimated number of sex acts and condoms used is not straightforward. The estimation methods yield widely different results, and it is impossible to determine which method is most accurate. Until the reliability of these various estimation methods can be established, estimating the annual number of condoms used from survey data will not be feasible. Collecting survey data on the number of sex acts and the number of condoms used in a fixed time period may enable the calculation of more reliable estimates of the number of sex acts and condoms used

Measuring and modelling concurrency

This article explores three critical topics discussed in the recent debate over concurrency (overlapping sexual partnerships): measurement of the prevalence of concurrency, mathematical modelling of concurrency and HIV epidemic dynamics, and measuring the correlation between HIV and concurrency. The focus of the article is the concurrency hypothesis – the proposition that presumed high prevalence of concurrency explains sub-Saharan Africa's exceptionally high HIV prevalence. Recent surveys using improved questionnaire design show reported concurrency ranging from 0.8% to 7.6% in the region. Even after adjusting for plausible levels of reporting errors, appropriately parameterized sexual network models of HIV epidemics do not generate sustainable epidemic trajectories (avoid epidemic extinction) at levels of concurrency found in recent surveys in sub-Saharan Africa. Efforts to support the concurrency hypothesis with a statistical correlation between HIV incidence and concurrency prevalence are not yet successful. Two decades of efforts to find evidence in support of the concurrency hypothesis have failed to build a convincing case

Human immunodeficiency virus prevalence, incidence, and residual transmission risk in first-time and repeat blood donations in Zimbabwe:implications on blood safety

<p>BackgroundNational Blood Service Zimbabwe human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk management strategy includes screening and discarding of first-time donations, which are collected in blood packs without an anticoagulant (dry pack). To evaluate the impact of discarding first-time donations on blood safety the HIV prevalence, incidence, and residual risk in first-time and repeat donations (wet packs) were compared.</p><p>Study Design and MethodsDonor data from 2002 to 2010 were retrieved from a centralized national electronic donor database and retrospectively analyzed. Chi-square test was used to compare HIV prevalence with relative risk (RR), and the RR point estimates and 95% confidence interval (CI) are reported. Trend analysis was done using Cochran-Armitage trend test. HIV residual risk estimates were determined using published residual risk estimation models.</p><p>ResultsOver the 9years the overall HIV prevalence estimates are 1.29% (n=116,058) and 0.42% (n=434,695) for first-time and repeat donations, respectively. The overall RR was 3.1 (95% CI, 2.9-3.3; p</p><p>ConclusionThe significantly high HIV prevalence estimates recorded in first-time over repeat donations is indicative of the effectiveness of the HIV risk management strategy. However, comparable residual transmission risk estimates in first-time and repeat donors point to the need to further review the risk management strategies. Given the potential wastage of valuable resources, future studies should focus on the cost-effectiveness and utility of screening and discarding first-time donations.</p>

Measuring Attitudes About Intimate Partner Violence Against Women: The ATT-IPV Scale

In lower-income settings, women more often than men justify intimate partner violence (IPV). Yet, the role of measurement invariance across gender is unstudied. We developed the ATT-IPV scale to measure attitudes about physical violence against wives in 1,055 married men and women ages 18-50 in My Hao district, Vietnam. Across 10 items about transgressions of the wife, women more often than men agreed that a man had good reason to hit his wife (3 % to 92 %; 0 % to 67 %). In random split-half samples, one-factor exploratory factor analysis (EFA) (N 1 = 527) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) (N 2 = 528) models for nine items with sufficient variability had significant loadings (0.575-0.883; 0.502-0.897) and good fit (RMSEA = 0.068, 0.048; CFI = 0.951, 0.978, TLI = 0.935, 0.970). Three items had significant uniform differential item functioning (DIF) by gender, and adjustment for DIF revealed that measurement noninvariance was partially masking men’s lower propensity than women to justify IPV. A CFA model for the six items without DIF had excellent fit (RMSEA = 0.019, CFI = 0.994, TLI = 0.991) and an attitudinal gender gap similar to the DIF-adjusted nine-item model, suggesting that the six-item scale reliably measures attitudes about IPV across gender. Researchers should validate the scale in urban Vietnam and elsewhere and decompose DIF-adjusted gender attitudinal gaps

Intimate partner violence against women in Maputo city, Mozambique

Background There is limited research about IPV against women and associated factors in Sub-Saharan Africa, not least Mozambique. The objective of this study was to examine the occurrence, severity, chronicity and "predictors" of IPV against women in Maputo City (Mozambique). Methods Data were collected during a 12 month-period (consecutive cases, with each woman seen only once) from 1,442 women aged 15--49 years old seeking help for abuse by an intimate partner at the Forensic Services at the Maputo Central Hospital, Maputo City, Mozambique. Interviews were conducted by trained female interviewers, and data collected included demographics and lifestyle variables, violence (using the previously validated Revised Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS2), and control (using the Controlling Behaviour Scale Revised (CBS-R). The data were analysed using bivariate and multivariate methods. Results The overall experienced IPV during the past 12 months across severity (one or more types, minor and severe) was 70.2% (chronicity, 85.8 +/- 120.9).a Severe IPV varied between 26.3-45.9% and chronicity between 3.1 +/- 9.1-12.8 +/- 26.9, depending on IPV type. Severity and chronicity figures were higher in psychological aggression than in the other IPV types. Further, 26.8% (chronicity, 55.3 +/- 117.6) of women experienced all IPV types across severity. The experience of other composite IPV types across severity (4 combinations of 3 types of IPV) varied between 27.1-42.6% and chronicity between 35.7 +/- 80.3-64.9 +/- 110.9, depending on the type of combination. The combination psychological aggression, physical assault and sexual coercion had the highest figures compared with the other combinations.. The multiple regressions showed that controlling behaviours, own perpetration and co-occurring victimization were more important in "explaining" the experience of IPV than other variables (e.g. abuse as a child). Conclusions In our study, controlling behaviours over/by partner, own perpetration, co-occurring victimization and childhood abuse were more important factors in "explaining" sustained IPV. More investigation into women's IPV exposure and its "predictors" is warranted in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly Mozambique