An Objective-Based Perspective on Assessment of Model-Supported Policy Processes

Simulation models, being in use for a long time in natural sciences and engineering domains, are diffusing to a wider context including policy analysis studies. The differences between the nature of the domain of application, as well as the increased variety of usage partially induced by this difference naturally imply new challenges to be overcome. One of these challenges is related to the assessment of the simulation-based outcomes in terms of their reliability and relevance in the policy context being studied. The importance of this assessment is twofold. First of all, it is all about conducting a high quality policy study with effective results. However, the quality of the study does not necessarily imply acceptance of the results by the clients and/or colleagues. This problem of policy analysts increases the importance of such an assessment; an effective assessment may induce the acceptance of the conclusions drawn from the study by the clients and/or colleagues. The main objective of this paper is to introduce an objective-based assessment perspective for simulation model-supported policy studies. As a first step towards such a goal, an objective-based classification of models is introduced. Based on that, we will discuss the importance of different aspects of the assessment for each type. In doing so, we aim to provide a structured discussion that may serve as a sort of methodological guideline to be used by policy analysts, and also by clients.Simulation, Validation, Model Assessment, Policy Analysis, Model Typology

Adolescent self-control predicts midlife hallucinatory experiences:40-year follow-up of a national birth cohort

Associations between self-control in adolescence and adult mental health are unclear in the general population; to our knowledge, no study has investigated self-control in relation to psychotic-like symptoms

Epicardial fat thickness and cardiovascular involvements.

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Assessment of the methodology for establishing the EU list of critical raw materials : background report

This report presents the results of work carried out by the Directorate General (DG) Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission (EC), in close cooperation with Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (GROW), in the context of the revision of the EC methodology that was used to identify the list of critical raw materials (CRMs) for the EU in 2011 and 2014 (EC 2011, 2014). As a background report, it complements the corresponding Guidelines Document, which contains the "ready-to-apply" methodology for updating the list of CRMs in 2017. This background report highlights the needs for updating the EC criticality methodology, the analysis and the proposals for improvement with related examples, discussion and justifications. However, a few initial remarks are necessary to clarify the context, the objectives of the revision and the approach. As the in-house scientific service of the EC, DG JRC was asked to provide scientific advice to DG GROW in order to assess the current methodology, identify aspects that have to be adapted to better address the needs and expectations of the list of CRMs and ultimately propose an improved and integrated methodology. This work was conducted closely in consultation with the adhoc working group on CRMs, who participated in regular discussions and provided informed expert feedback. The analysis and subsequent revision started from the assumption that the methodology used for the 2011 and 2014 CRMs lists proved to be reliable and robust and, therefore, the JRC mandate was focused on fine-tuning and/or targeted incremental methodological improvements. An in depth re-discussion of fundamentals of criticality assessment and/or major changes to the EC methodology were not within the scope of this work. High priority was given to ensure good comparability with the criticality exercises of 2011 and 2014. The existing methodology was therefore retained, except for specific aspects for which there were policy and/or stakeholder needs on the one hand, or strong scientific reasons for refinement of the methodology on the other. This was partially facilitated through intensive dialogue with DG GROW, the CRM adhoc working group, other key EU and extra-EU stakeholders

Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures

Work-related pesticide poisoning among farmers in two villages of Southern China: a cross-sectional survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pesticide poisoning is an important health problem among Chinese farm workers, but there is a paucity of pesticide poisoning data from China. Using the WHO standard case definition of a possible acute pesticide poisoning, we investigated the prevalence and risk factors of acute work-related pesticide poisoning among farmers in Southern China.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A stratified sample of 910 pesticide applicators from two villages in southern China participated in face-to-face interviews. Respondents who self-reported having two or more of a list of sixty-six symptoms within 24 hours after pesticide application were categorized as having suffered acute pesticide poisoning. The association between the composite behavioral risk score and pesticide poisoning were assessed in a multivariate logistic model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 80 (8.8%) pesticide applicators reported an acute work-related pesticide poisoning. The most frequent symptoms among applicators were dermal (11.6%) and nervous system (10.7%) symptoms. Poisoning was more common among women, farmers in poor areas, and applicators without safety training (all p < 0.001). After controlling for gender, age, education, geographic area and the behavioral risk score, farmers without safety training had an adjusted odds ratio of 3.22 (95% CI: 1.86-5.60). The likelihood of acute pesticide poisoning was also significantly associated with number of exposure risk behaviors. A significant "dose-response" relationship between composite behavioral risk scores calculated from 9 pesticides exposure risk behaviors and the log odds of pesticide poisoning prevalence was seen among these Chinese farmers (R²= 0.9246).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study found that 8.8% of Chinese pesticide applicators suffered acute pesticide poisoning and suggests that pesticide safety training, safe application methods, and precautionary behavioral measures could be effective in reducing the risk of pesticide poisoning.</p

Caspase involvement in autophagy

Caspases are a family of cysteine proteases widely known as the principal mediators of the apoptotic cell death response, but considerably less so as the contributors to the regulation of pathways outside cellular demise. In regards to autophagy, the modulatory roles of caspases have only recently begun to be adequately described. In contrast to apoptosis, autophagy promotes cell survival by providing energy and nutrients through the lysosomal degradation of cytoplasmic constituents. Under basal conditions autophagy and apoptosis cross-regulate each other through an elaborate network of interconnections which also includes the interplay between autophagyrelated proteins (ATGs) and caspases. In this review we focus on the effects of this crosstalk at the cellular level, as we aim to concentrate the main observations from research conducted so far on the fine-tuning of autophagy by caspases. Several members of this protease-family have been found to directly interact with key ATGs involved in different tiers across the autophagic cascade. Therefore, we firstly outline the core mechanism of macroautophagy in brief. In an effort to emphasize the importance of the intricate cross-regulation of ATGs and caspases, we also present examples drawn from Drosophila and plant models regarding the contribution of autophagy to apoptotic cell death during normal development

ERRα promotes breast cancer cell dissemination to bone by increasing RANK expression in primary breast tumors

Bone is the most common metastatic site for breast cancer. Estrogen-related-receptor alpha (ERRα) has been implicated in cancer cell invasiveness. Here, we established that ERRα promotes spontaneous metastatic dissemination of breast cancer cells from primary mammary tumors to the skeleton. We carried out cohort studies, pharmacological inhibition, gain-of-function analyses in vivo and cellular and molecular studies in vitro to identify new biomarkers in breast cancer metastases. Meta-analysis of human primary breast tumors revealed that high ERRα expression levels were associated with bone but not lung metastases. ERRα expression was also detected in circulating tumor cells from metastatic breast cancer patients. ERRα overexpression in murine 4T1 breast cancer cells promoted spontaneous bone micro-metastases formation when tumor cells were inoculated orthotopically, whereas lung metastases occurred irrespective of ERRα expression level. In vivo, Rank was identified as a target for ERRα. That was confirmed in vitro in Rankl stimulated tumor cell invasion, in mTOR/pS6K phosphorylation, by transactivation assay, ChIP and bioinformatics analyses. Moreover, pharmacological inhibition of ERRα reduced primary tumor growth, bone micro-metastases formation and Rank expression in vitro and in vivo. Transcriptomic studies and meta-analysis confirmed a positive association between metastases and ERRα/RANK in breast cancer patients and also revealed a positive correlation between ERRα and BRCA1mut carriers. Taken together, our results reveal a novel ERRα/RANK axis by which ERRα in primary breast cancer promotes early dissemination of cancer cells to bone. These findings suggest that ERRα may be a useful therapeutic target to prevent bone metastases

Cardiovascular health and particulate vehicular emissions: a critical evaluation of the evidence

A major public health goal is to determine linkages between specific pollution sources and adverse health outcomes. This paper provides an integrative evaluation of the database examining effects of vehicular emissions, such as black carbon (BC), carbonaceous gasses, and ultrafine PM, on cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality. Less than a decade ago, few epidemiological studies had examined effects of traffic emissions specifically on these health endpoints. In 2002, the first of many studies emerged finding significantly higher risks of CV morbidity and mortality for people living in close proximity to major roadways, vs. those living further away. Abundant epidemiological studies now link exposure to vehicular emissions, characterized in many different ways, with CV health endpoints such as cardiopulmonary and ischemic heart disease and circulatory-disease-associated mortality; incidence of coronary artery disease; acute myocardial infarction; survival after heart failure; emergency CV hospital admissions; and markers of atherosclerosis. We identify numerous in vitro, in vivo, and human panel studies elucidating mechanisms which could explain many of these cardiovascular morbidity and mortality associations. These include: oxidative stress, inflammation, lipoperoxidation and atherosclerosis, change in heart rate variability (HRV), arrhythmias, ST-segment depression, and changes in vascular function (such as brachial arterial caliber and blood pressure). Panel studies with accurate exposure information, examining effects of ambient components of vehicular emissions on susceptible human subjects, appear to confirm these mechanisms. Together, this body of evidence supports biological mechanisms which can explain the various CV epidemiological findings. Based upon these studies, the research base suggests that vehicular emissions are a major environmental cause of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in the United States. As a means to reduce the public health consequences of such emissions, it may be desirable to promulgate a black carbon (BC) PM2.5 standard under the National Ambient Air Quality Standards, which would apply to both on and off-road diesels. Two specific critical research needs are identified. One is to continue research on health effects of vehicular emissions, gaseous as well as particulate. The second is to utilize identical or nearly identical research designs in studies using accurate exposure metrics to determine whether other major PM pollutant sources and types may also underlie the specific health effects found in this evaluation for vehicular emissions