The challenge of reconciling bottom-up agricultural methane emissions inventories with top-down measurements

Agriculture is estimated to produce more than 40% of anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions, contributing to global climate change. Bottom-up, IPCC based methodologies are typically used to estimate the agriculture sector\u2019s contribution, but these estimates are rarely verified beyond the farm gate, due to the challenge of separating interspersed sources. We present flux measurements of CH4, using eddy covariance (EC), relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) and wavelet covariance obtained using an aircraft-based measurement platform and compare these top-down estimates with bottom-up footprint adjusted inventory estimates of CH4 emissions for an agricultural region in eastern Ontario, Canada. Top-down CH4 fluxes agree well (mean \ub1 1 standard error: EC = 17 \ub1 4 mg CH4 m 122 d 121; REA = 19 \ub1 3 mg CH4 m 122 d 121, wavelet covariance = 16 \ub1 3 mg CH4 m 122 d 121), and are not statistically different, but significantly exceed bottom-up inventory estimates of CH4 emissions based on animal husbandry (8 \ub1 1 mg CH4 m 122 d 121). The discrepancy between top-down and bottom-up estimates was found to be related to both increasing fractional area of wetlands in the flux footprint, and increasing surface temperature. For the case when the wetland area in the flux footprint was less than 10% fractional coverage, the top-down and bottom-up estimates were within the measurement error. This result provides the first independent verification of agricultural methane emissions inventories at the regional scale. Wavelet analysis, which provides spatially resolved fluxes, was used to attempt to separate CH4 emissions from managed and unmanaged CH4 sources. Opportunities to minimize the challenges of verifying agricultural CH4 emissions inventories using aircraft flux measuring systems are discussed.Peer reviewed: YesNRC publication: Ye

Women, know your limits: Cultural sexism in academia

Despite the considerable advances of the feminist movement across Western societies, in Universities women are less likely to be promoted, or paid as much as their male colleagues, or even get jobs in the first place. One way in which we can start to reflect on why this might be the case is through hearing the experiences of women academics themselves. Using feminist methodology, this article attempts to unpack and explore just some examples of ‘cultural sexism’ which characterise the working lives of many women in British academia.This article uses qualitative methods to describe and make sense of just some of those experiences. In so doing, the argument is also made that the activity of academia is profoundly gendered and this explicit acknowledgement may contribute to our understanding of the under-representation of women in senior positions

Contributions of regional boreal wetlands to atmospheric CH4 variations at Churchill (Canada) estimated from carbon and hydrogen isotope measurements

第7回極域科学シンポジウム/横断セッション:[IA] ニーオルスン観測拠点設立25周年記念横断セッション—北極域の科学（ニーオルスン、GRENE、ArCS)—12月2日（金）国立極地研究所1階交流アトリウ

Country-Scale Analysis of Methane Emissions with a High-Resolution Inverse Model Using GOSAT and Surface Observations

We employed a global high-resolution inverse model to optimize the CH4 emission using Greenhouse gas Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and surface observation data for a period from 2011–2017 for the two main source categories of anthropogenic and natural emissions. We used the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v4.3.2) for anthropogenic methane emission and scaled them by country to match the national inventories reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Wetland and soil sink prior fluxes were simulated using the Vegetation Integrative Simulator of Trace gases (VISIT) model. Biomass burning prior fluxes were provided by the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS). We estimated a global total anthropogenic and natural methane emissions of 340.9 Tg CH4 yr−1 and 232.5 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively. Country-scale analysis of the estimated anthropogenic emissions showed that all the top-emitting countries showed differences with their respective inventories to be within the uncertainty range of the inventories, confirming that the posterior anthropogenic emissions did not deviate from nationally reported values. Large countries, such as China, Russia, and the United States, had the mean estimated emission of 45.7 ± 8.6, 31.9 ± 7.8, and 29.8 ± 7.8 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively. For natural wetland emissions, we estimated large emissions for Brazil (39.8 ± 12.4 Tg CH4 yr−1), the United States (25.9 ± 8.3 Tg CH4 yr−1), Russia (13.2 ± 9.3 Tg CH4 yr−1), India (12.3 ± 6.4 Tg CH4 yr−1), and Canada (12.2 ± 5.1 Tg CH4 yr−1). In both emission categories, the major emitting countries all had the model corrections to emissions within the uncertainty range of inventories. The advantages of the approach used in this study were: (1) use of high-resolution transport, useful for simulations near emission hotspots, (2) prior anthropogenic emissions adjusted to the UNFCCC reports, (3) combining surface and satellite observations, which improves the estimation of both natural and anthropogenic methane emissions over spatial scale of countries

CO2 surface fluxes at grid point scale estimated from a global 21 year reanalysis of atmospheric measurements

This paper documents a global Bayesian variational inversion of CO2 surface fluxes during the period 1988–2008. Weekly fluxes are estimated on a 3.75° × 2.5° (longitude-latitude) grid throughout the 21 years. The assimilated observations include 128 station records from three large data sets of surface CO2 mixing ratio measurements. A Monte Carlo approach rigorously quantifies the theoretical uncertainty of the inverted fluxes at various space and time scales, which is particularly important for proper interpretation of the inverted fluxes. Fluxes are evaluated indirectly against two independent CO2 vertical profile data sets constructed from aircraft measurements in the boundary layer and in the free troposphere. The skill of the inversion is evaluated by the improvement brought over a simple benchmark flux estimation based on the observed atmospheric growth rate. Our error analysis indicates that the carbon budget from the inversion should be more accurate than the a priori carbon budget by 20% to 60% for terrestrial fluxes aggregated at the scale of subcontinental regions in the Northern Hemisphere and over a year, but the inversion cannot clearly distinguish between the regional carbon budgets within a continent. On the basis of the independent observations, the inversion is seen to improve the fluxes compared to the benchmark: the atmospheric simulation of CO2 with the Bayesian inversion method is better by about 1 ppm than the benchmark in the free troposphere, despite possible systematic transport errors. The inversion achieves this improvement by changing the regional fluxes over land at the seasonal and at the interannual time scales.This work was performed using HPC resources from GENCI‐ (CCRT/CINES/IDRIS; grant 2009‐ t2009012201). It was cofunded by the European Commission under the EU Seventh Research Framework Programme (grant agreements 212196, COCOS, and 218793, MACC)

Miocene waterfowl and other birds from central Otago, New Zealand

Copyright © The Natural History Museum 2007Abundant fossil bird bones from the lower Bannockburn Formation, Manuherikia Group, an Early-Middle Miocene lacustrine deposit, 16–19 Ma, from Otago in New Zealand, reveal the “St Bathans Fauna” (new name), a first Tertiary avifauna of land and freshwater birds from New Zealand. At least 23 species of birds are represented by bones, and probable moa, Aves: Dinornithiformes, by eggshell. Anatids dominate the fauna with four genera and five species described as new: a sixth and largest anatid species is represented by just one bone. This is the most diverse Early-Middle Miocene duck fauna known worldwide. Among ducks, two species of dendrochenines are most numerous in the fauna, but a tadornine is common as well. A diving petrel (Pelecanoididae: Pelecanoides) is described, so extending the geological range of this genus worldwide from the Pliocene to the Middle Miocene, at least. The remaining 16 taxa are left undescribed but include: a large species of gull (Laridae); two small waders (Charadriiformes, genus indet.), the size of Charadrius bicinctus and Calidris ruficollis, respectively; a gruiform represented by one specimen similar to Aptornis; abundant rail (Rallidae) bones, including a common flightless rail and a rarer slightly larger taxon, about the size of Gallirallus philippensis; an ?eagle (Accipitridae); a pigeon (Columbidae); three parrots (Psittacidae); an owlet nightjar (Aegothelidae: Aegotheles sp.); a swiftlet (Apodidae: Collocalia sp.); and three passerine taxa, of which the largest is a member of the Cracticidae. The absence of some waterbirds, such as anserines (including swans), grebes (Podicipedidae) and shags (Phalacrocoracidae), among the abundant bones, indicates their probable absence from New Zealand in the Early-Middle Miocene.T. H. Worthy, A. J. D. Tennyson, C. Jones, J. A. McNamara and B. J. Dougla

Global CO2 fluxes inferred from surface air-sample measurements and from TCCON retrievals of the CO2 total column

We present the first estimate of the global distribution of CO2surface fluxes from 14 stations of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). The evaluation of this inversion is based on 1) comparison with the fluxes from a classical inversion of surface air-sample-measurements, and 2) comparison of CO2mixing ratios calculated from the inverted fluxes with independent aircraft measurements made during the two years analyzed here, 2009 and 2010. The former test shows similar seasonal cycles in the northern hemisphere and consistent regional carbon budgets between inversions from the two datasets, even though the TCCON inversion appears to be less precise than the classical inversion. The latter test confirms that the TCCON inversion has improved the quality (i.e., reduced the uncertainty) of the surface fluxes compared to the assumed or prior fluxes. The consistency between the surface-air-sample-based and the TCCON-based inversions despite remaining flaws in transport models opens the possibility of increased accuracy and robustness of flux inversions based on the combination of both data sources and confirms the usefulness of space-borne monitoring of the CO2 column.It was co-funded by the European Commission under the EU Seventh Research Framework Programme (grants agreements 218793, MACC, and 212196, COCOS

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)