Protocol on a multicentre statistical and economic modelling study of risk-based stratified and personalised screening for diabetes and its complications in India (SMART India)

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study is to develop practical and affordable models to (a) diagnose people with diabetes and prediabetes and (b) identify those at risk of diabetes complications so that these models can be applied to the population in low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC) where laboratory tests are unaffordable. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This statistical and economic modelling study will be done on at least 48 000 prospectively recruited participants aged 40 years or above through community screening across 20 predefined regions in India. Each participant will be tested for capillary random blood glucose (RBG) and complete a detailed health-related questionnaire. People with known diabetes and all participants with predefined levels of RBG will undergo further tests, including point-of-care (POC) glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), POC lipid profile and POC urine test for microalbuminuria, retinal photography using non-mydriatic hand-held retinal camera, visual acuity assessment in both eyes and complete quality of life questionnaires. The primary aim of the study is to develop a model and assess its diagnostic performance to predict HbA1c diagnosed diabetes from simple tests that can be applied in resource-limited settings; secondary outcomes include RBG cut-off for definition of prediabetes, diagnostic accuracy of cost-effective risk stratification models for diabetic retinopathy and models for identifying those at risk of complications of diabetes. Diagnostic accuracy inter-tests agreement, statistical and economic modelling will be performed, accounting for clustering effects. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The Indian Council of Medical Research/Health Ministry Screening Committee (HMSC/2018–0494 dated 17 December 2018 and institutional ethics committees of all the participating institutions approved the study. Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and will be presented at national and international conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN57962668 V1.0 24/09/2018

Patients with diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis have an increased burden of thoracic aortic calcifications

OBJECTIVES: DISH has been associated with increased coronary artery calcifications and incident ischaemic stroke. The formation of bone along the spine may share pathways with calcium deposition in the aorta. We hypothesized that patients with DISH have increased vascular calcifications. Therefore we aimed to investigate the presence and extent of DISH in relation to thoracic aortic calcification (TAC) severity. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 4703 patients from the Second Manifestation of ARTerial disease cohort, consisting of patients with cardiovascular events or risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Chest radiographs were scored for DISH using the Resnick criteria. Different severities of TAC were scored arbitrarily from no TAC to mild, moderate or severe TAC. Using multivariate logistic regression, the associations between DISH and TAC were analysed with adjustments for age, sex, BMI, diabetes, smoking status, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, cholesterol lowering drug usage, renal function and blood pressure. RESULTS: A total of 442 patients (9.4%) had evidence of DISH and 1789 (38%) patients had TAC. The prevalence of DISH increased from 6.6% in the no TAC group to 10.8% in the mild, 14.3% in the moderate and 17.1% in the severe TAC group. After adjustments, DISH was significantly associated with the presence of TAC [odds ratio (OR) 1.46 [95% CI 1.17, 1.82)]. In multinomial analyses, DISH was associated with moderate TAC [OR 1.43 (95% CI 1.06, 1.93)] and severe TAC [OR 1.67 (95% CI 1.19, 2.36)]. CONCLUSIONS: Subjects with DISH have increased TACs, providing further evidence that patients with DISH have an increased burden of vascular calcifications

El Niño Modulations Over The Past Seven Centuries (Letter to the editor)

postprin

Diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis is associated with incident stroke in patients with increased cardiovascular risk

OBJECTIVES: Earlier retrospective studies have suggested a relation between DISH and cardiovascular disease, including myocardial infarction. The present study assessed the association between DISH and incidence of cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with high cardiovascular risk. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, we included 4624 patients (mean age 58.4 years, 69.6% male) from the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease cohort. The main end point was major cardiovascular events (MACE: stroke, myocardial infarction and vascular death). Secondary endpoints included all-cause mortality and separate vascular events. Cause-specific proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the risk of DISH on all outcomes, and subdistribution hazard models were used to evaluate the effect of DISH on the cumulative incidence. All models were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes, non-HDL cholesterol, packyears, renal function and C-reactive protein. RESULTS: DISH was present in 435 (9.4%) patients. After a median follow-up of 8.7 (IQR 5.0–12.0) years, 864 patients had died and 728 patients developed a MACE event. DISH was associated with an increased cumulative incidence of ischaemic stroke. After adjustment in cause-specific modelling, DISH remained significantly associated with ischaemic stroke (HR 1.55; 95% CI: 1.01, 2.38), but not with MACE (HR 0.99; 95% CI: 0.79, 1.24), myocardial infarction (HR 0.88; 95% CI: 0.59, 1.31), vascular death (HR 0.94; 95% CI: 0.68, 1.27) or all-cause mortality (HR 0.94; 95% CI: 0.77, 1.16). CONCLUSIONS: The presence of DISH is independently associated with an increased incidence and risk for ischaemic stroke, but not with MACE, myocardial infarction, vascular death or all-cause mortality

The impact of ENSO on Southern African rainfall in CMIP5 ocean atmosphere coupled climate models

We study the ability of 24 ocean atmosphere global coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to reproduce the teleconnections between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern African rainfall in austral summer using historical forced simulations, with a focus on the atmospheric dynamic associated with El Niño. Overestimations of summer rainfall occur over Southern Africa in all CMIP5 models. Abnormal westward extensions of ENSO patterns are a common feature of all CMIP5 models, while the warming of the Indian Ocean that happens during El Niño is not correctly reproduced. This could impact the teleconnection between ENSO and Southern African rainfall which is represented with mixed success in CMIP5 models. Large-scale anomalies of suppressed deep-convection over the tropical maritime continent and enhanced convection from the central to eastern Pacific are correctly simulated. However, regional biases occur above Africa and the Indian Ocean, particularly in the position of the deep convection anomalies associated with El Niño, which can lead to the wrong sign in rainfall anomalies in the northwest part of South Africa. From the near-surface to mid-troposphere, CMIP5 models underestimate the observed anomalous pattern of pressure occurring over Southern Africa that leads to dry conditions during El Niño years

The extreme European summer 2012

The European summer of 2012 was marked by strongly contrasting rainfall anomalies, which led to flooding in northern Europe and droughts and wildfires in southern Europe. This season was not an isolated event, rather the latest in a string of summers characterized by a southward shifted Atlantic storm track as described by the negative phase of the SNAO. The degree of decadal variability in these features suggests a role for forcing from outside the dynamical atmosphere, and preliminary numerical experiments suggest that the global SST and low Arctic sea ice extent anomalies are likely to have played a role and that warm North Atlantic SSTs were a particular contributing factor. The direct effects of changes in radiative forcing from greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing are not included in these experiments, but both anthropogenic forcing and natural variability may have influenced the SST and sea ice changes

Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the American Association for the Advancement of Science via the DOI in this recordData and materials availability: All observational and model datasets used here are publicly available or available on request.Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO

Initialization shock in decadal hindcasts due to errors in wind stress over the tropical Pacific

Low prediction skill in the tropical Pacific is a common problem in decadal prediction systems, especially for lead years 2–5 which, in many systems, is lower than in uninitialized experiments. On the other hand, the tropical Pacific is of almost worldwide climate relevance through its teleconnections with other tropical and extratropical regions and also of importance for global mean temperature. Understanding the causes of the reduced prediction skill is thus of major interest for decadal climate predictions. We look into the problem of reduced prediction skill by analyzing the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) decadal hindcasts for the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project and performing a sensitivity experiment in which hindcasts are initialized from a model run forced only by surface wind stress. In both systems, sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific is successfully initialized, but most skill is lost at lead years 2–5. Utilizing the sensitivity experiment enables us to pin down the reason for the reduced prediction skill in MPI-ESM to errors in wind stress used for the initialization. A spurious trend in the wind stress forcing displaces the equatorial thermocline in MPI-ESM unrealistically. When the climate model is then switched into its forecast mode, the recovery process triggers artificial El Niño and La Niña events at the surface. Our results demonstrate the importance of realistic wind stress products for the initialization of decadal prediction

Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy (4th edition)1.

In 2008, we published the first set of guidelines for standardizing research in autophagy. Since then, this topic has received increasing attention, and many scientists have entered the field. Our knowledge base and relevant new technologies have also been expanding. Thus, it is important to formulate on a regular basis updated guidelines for monitoring autophagy in different organisms. Despite numerous reviews, there continues to be confusion regarding acceptable methods to evaluate autophagy, especially in multicellular eukaryotes. Here, we present a set of guidelines for investigators to select and interpret methods to examine autophagy and related processes, and for reviewers to provide realistic and reasonable critiques of reports that are focused on these processes. These guidelines are not meant to be a dogmatic set of rules, because the appropriateness of any assay largely depends on the question being asked and the system being used. Moreover, no individual assay is perfect for every situation, calling for the use of multiple techniques to properly monitor autophagy in each experimental setting. Finally, several core components of the autophagy machinery have been implicated in distinct autophagic processes (canonical and noncanonical autophagy), implying that genetic approaches to block autophagy should rely on targeting two or more autophagy-related genes that ideally participate in distinct steps of the pathway. Along similar lines, because multiple proteins involved in autophagy also regulate other cellular pathways including apoptosis, not all of them can be used as a specific marker for bona fide autophagic responses. Here, we critically discuss current methods of assessing autophagy and the information they can, or cannot, provide. Our ultimate goal is to encourage intellectual and technical innovation in the field

Phylogenetic Analysis of Staphylococcus aureus CC398 Reveals a Sub-Lineage Epidemiologically Associated with Infections in Horses

In the early 2000s, a particular MRSA clonal complex (CC398) was found mainly in pigs and pig farmers in Europe. Since then, CC398 has been detected among a wide variety of animal species worldwide. We investigated the population structure of CC398 through mutation discovery at 97 genetic housekeeping loci, which are distributed along the CC398 chromosome within 195 CC398 isolates, collected from various countries and host species, including humans. Most of the isolates in this collection were received from collaborating microbiologists, who had preserved them over years. We discovered 96 bi-allelic polymorphisms, and phylogenetic analyses revealed that an epidemic sub-clone within CC398 (dubbed 'clade (C)') has spread within and between equine hospitals, where it causes nosocomial infections in horses and colonises the personnel. While clade (C) was strongly associated with S. aureus from horses in veterinary-care settings (p = 2 × 10(-7)), it remained extremely rare among S. aureus isolates from human infections