A Gershunov

A Kaplan

A Robock

AC Clement

AT Wittenberg

C Deser

C Torrence

CF Ropelewski

E Guilyardi

FE Urban

I-S Kang

J Emile-Geay

J Li

JB Adams

JS Chowdary

KE Trenberth

KM Cobb

L Siebert

M Collins

ME Mann

MJ McPhaden

R D’Arrigo

S McGregor

S Stevenson

TR Ault

WC Palmer

Nature Climate Change

Jinbao Li

Shang-Ping Xie

Edward R. Cook

Mariano S. Morales

Duncan A. Christie

Nathaniel C. Johnson

Fahu Chen

Rosanne D’Arrigo

Anthony M. Fowler

Xiaohua Gou

Keyan Fang

Crossref

El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries

Li, J

Xie, S-P

Cook, ER

Morales, MS

Christie, D

Johnson, N

Chen, F

D'Arrigo, R

Fowler, A

Gou, X

Fang, K

HKU Scholars Hub

El Niño Modulations Over The Past Seven Centuries (Letter to the editor)

Predicting how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change with global warming is of enormous importance to society. ENSO exhibits considerable natural variability at interdecadal-centennial timescales. Instrumental records are too short to determine whether ENSO has changed and existing reconstructions are often developed without adequate tropical records. Here we present a seven-century-long ENSO reconstruction based on 2,222 tree-ring chronologies from both the tropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. The inclusion of tropical records enables us to achieve unprecedented accuracy, as attested by high correlations with equatorial Pacific corals and coherent modulation of global teleconnections that are consistent with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Our data indicate that ENSO activity in the late twentieth century was anomalously high over the past seven centuries, suggestive of a response to continuing global warming. Climate models disagree on the ENSO response to global warming, suggesting that many models underestimate the sensitivity to radiative perturbations. Illustrating the radiative effect, our reconstruction reveals a robust ENSO response to large tropical eruptions, with anomalous cooling in the east-central tropical Pacific in the year of eruption, followed by anomalous warming one year after. Our observations provide crucial constraints for improving climate models and their future projections.Fil: Li, Jimbao. University of Hong Kong; China. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados UnidosFil: Xie, Shang Ping. Ocean University of China; China. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos. University of California at San Diego; Estados UnidosFil: Cook, Edward. Columbia University; Estados UnidosFil: Morales, Mariano Santos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Científico Tecnológico Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Chistrie, Duncan A.. Center for Climate and Resilience Research; Chile. Universidad Austral de Chile; ChileFil: Johnson, Nataniel C.. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados UnidosFil: Chen, Fahu. Lanzhou University; ChinaFil: D'Arrigo, Rossane. Columbia University; Estados UnidosFil: Fowler, Anthony M.. University of Auckland; Nueva ZelandaFil: Gou, Xiaohua. Lanzhou University; ChinaFil: Fang, Keyan. Lanzhou University; Chin

Li, Jimbao

Xie, Shang Ping

Cook, Edward

Morales, Mariano Santos

Chistrie, Duncan A.

Johnson, Nataniel C.

Chen, Fahu

D'Arrigo, Rossane

Fowler, Anthony M.

Gou, Xiaohua

Fang, Keyan

LAReferencia - Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas Latinoamericanas

English

CONICET Digital

http://hub.hku.hk/bitstream/10722/189524/1/Content.pdf

El Niño Modulations Over The Past Seven Centuries (Letter to the editor)

Abstract

Similar works

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Crossref

HKU Scholars Hub

LAReferencia - Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas Latinoamericanas

CONICET Digital