Utility and Residential Solar Resource Assessment and Modeling for Alaska’s Railbelt Transmission System

Research Poste

Validation of cell-cycle arrest biomarkers for acute kidney injury using clinical adjudication.

RationaleWe recently reported two novel biomarkers for acute kidney injury (AKI), tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases (TIMP)-2 and insulin-like growth factor binding protein 7 (IGFBP7), both related to G1 cell cycle arrest.ObjectivesWe now validate a clinical test for urinary [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7] at a high-sensitivity cutoff greater than 0.3 for AKI risk stratification in a diverse population of critically ill patients.MethodsWe conducted a prospective multicenter study of 420 critically ill patients. The primary analysis was the ability of urinary [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7] to predict moderate to severe AKI within 12 hours. AKI was adjudicated by a committee of three independent expert nephrologists who were masked to the results of the test.Measurements and main resultsUrinary TIMP-2 and IGFBP7 were measured using a clinical immunoassay platform. The primary endpoint was reached in 17% of patients. For a single urinary [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7] test, sensitivity at the prespecified high-sensitivity cutoff of 0.3 (ng/ml)(2)/1,000 was 92% (95% confidence interval [CI], 85-98%) with a negative likelihood ratio of 0.18 (95% CI, 0.06-0.33). Critically ill patients with urinary [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7] greater than 0.3 had seven times the risk for AKI (95% CI, 4-22) compared with critically ill patients with a test result below 0.3. In a multivariate model including clinical information, urinary [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7] remained statistically significant and a strong predictor of AKI (area under the curve, 0.70, 95% CI, 0.63-0.76 for clinical variables alone, vs. area under the curve, 0.86, 95% CI, 0.80-0.90 for clinical variables plus [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7]).ConclusionsUrinary [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7] greater than 0.3 (ng/ml)(2)/1,000 identifies patients at risk for imminent AKI. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 01573962)

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Production of Embryonic and Fetal-Like Red Blood Cells from Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells

We have previously shown that human embryonic stem cells can be differentiated into embryonic and fetal type of red blood cells that sequentially express three types of hemoglobins recapitulating early human erythropoiesis. We report here that we have produced iPS from three somatic cell types: adult skin fibroblasts as well as embryonic and fetal mesenchymal stem cells. We show that regardless of the age of the donor cells, the iPS produced are fully reprogrammed into a pluripotent state that is undistinguishable from that of hESCs by low and high-throughput expression and detailed analysis of globin expression patterns by HPLC. This suggests that reprogramming with the four original Yamanaka pluripotency factors leads to complete erasure of all functionally important epigenetic marks associated with erythroid differentiation regardless of the age or the tissue type of the donor cells, at least as detected in these assays. The ability to produce large number of erythroid cells with embryonic and fetal-like characteristics is likely to have many translational applications

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

A 2D Moving Mesh Finite Element Analysis of Heat Transfer in Arctic Soils

Accurate soil heat transfer models are needed to predict and adapt to a warming arctic. A numerical model to accurately predict temperatures and thaw depths in soils, both with depth and with horizontal distance from features such as cliffs, was developed in Matlab using the finite element method. The model was validated against analytical solutions to simple versions of the problem and experimental temperature data from borehole thermistor strings on the north shore of Alaska. The current model is most useful for short term (on the order of days) predictions of thaw depth and near surface temperatures in homogeneous soils with existing data to allow the calibration of soil thermal parameters. These are exactly the time scales and capabilities that would integrate well with erosional models to predict the erosion during storm events and summer thaw conditions. Comparisons with analytical solutions show the model to be fairly accurate in predictions of temperatures thaw-depth and temperatures, within about 0.25 °C and 0.02 m respectively, for reasonable arctic soil parameters. Differences between predicted temperatures and thaw-depth against borehole data from Barter Island, Alaska are within about 1 °C and 0.5 m respectively. Comparison to commercial software, which does not directly track and move the phase change boundary, shows that this moving-mesh model has much better agreement. The model developed in this work is flexible and can be modified to model a wide variety of problems, but is efficiently set up to take a surface and thaw-boundary profile (not necessarily horizontal) and use soil parameters and surface boundary conditions appropriate to Arctic regions. It has been verified to appropriately model cliffs, which are particularly vulnerable to erosion

Field Performance of South-Facing and East-West Facing Bifacial Modules in the Arctic

This paper presents the first systematic comparison between south-facing monofacial and bifacial photovoltaic (PV) modules, as well as between south-facing bifacial and vertical east-west facing bifacial PV modules in Alaska. The state’s solar industry, driven by the high price of energy and dropping equipment costs, is quickly growing. The challenges posed by extreme sun angles in Alaska’s northern regions also present opportunities for unique system designs. Annual bifacial gains of 21% were observed between side by side south-facing monofacial and bifacial modules. Vertical east-west bifacial modules had virtually the same annual production as south-facing latitude tilt bifacial modules, but with different energy production profiles

Field Performance of South-Facing and East-West Facing Bifacial Modules in the Arctic

This paper presents the first systematic comparison between south-facing monofacial and bifacial photovoltaic (PV) modules, as well as between south-facing bifacial and vertical east-west facing bifacial PV modules in Alaska. The state’s solar industry, driven by the high price of energy and dropping equipment costs, is quickly growing. The challenges posed by extreme sun angles in Alaska’s northern regions also present opportunities for unique system designs. Annual bifacial gains of 21% were observed between side by side south-facing monofacial and bifacial modules. Vertical east-west bifacial modules had virtually the same annual production as south-facing latitude tilt bifacial modules, but with different energy production profiles

The McNair Scholars Journal, 2020

The TRIO McNair Scholars Program began at the University of Wisconsin-Superior in the fall of 1999. The McNair Scholars Program is a federal TRIO program originally established in 1986 by the U.S. Department of Education, with 187 currently funded programs nationwide with nine programs housed within the UW System. The Ronald E. McNair Post-baccalaureate Achievement Program (TRIO McNair Scholars Program) at the University of Wisconsin-Superior prepares income eligible, first generation college students and students from groups underrepresented in graduate education for doctoral study by providing transformative research experiences, exceptional mentorship, and intentional professional & personal development. The University of Wisconsin-Superior TRIO McNair Scholars Program serves students from three different institutions within the region, including Northland College, University of Minnesota-Duluth, and University of Wisconsin-Superior