Research Protocol for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Elder Abuse Prevalence Studies

© 2017 Canadian Association on Gerontology. Elder abuse is an important public health and human rights issue, yet its true extent is not well understood. To address this, we will conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of elder abuse prevalence studies from around the world. This protocol describes the methodological approach to be adopted for conducting this systematic review and meta-analysis. In particular, the protocol describes the search strategies and eligibility criteria to be used to identify and select studies and how data from the selected studies will be extracted for analysis. The protocol also describes the analytical approach that will be used to calculate pooled prevalence estimates and discusses the use of meta-regression to assess how studies' characteristics influence the prevalence estimates. This protocol conforms to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis - or PRISMA - guidelines and has been registered with the PROSPERO International Prospective Register of systematic reviews

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

Community Discharge of Nursing Home Residents: The Role of Facility Characteristics

Objective: Using a socio-ecological model, this study examines the influence of facility characteristics on the transition of nursing home residents to the community after a short stay (within 90 days of admission) or long stay (365 days of admission) across states with different long-term services and supports systems. Data Source: Data were drawn from the Minimum Data Set, the federal Online Survey, Certification, and Reporting (OSCAR) database, the Area Health Resource File, and the LTCFocUs.org database for all free-standing, certified nursing homes in California (n = 1,127) and Florida (n = 657) from July 2007 to June 2008. Study Design: Hierarchical generalized linear models were used to examine the impact of facility characteristics on the probability of transitioning to the community. Principal Findings: Facility characteristics, including size, occupancy, ownership, average length of stay, proportion of Medicare and Medicaid residents, and the proportion of residents admitted from acute care facilities are associated with discharge but differed by state and whether the discharge occurred after a short or long stay. Conclusion: Short- and long-stay nursing home discharge to the community is affected by resident, facility, and sometimes market characteristics, with Medicaid consistently influencing discharge in both states

Reduced Mortality: The Unexpected Impact of a Telephone-Based Care Management Intervention for Older Adults in Managed Care

Objective. This analysis evaluated mortality over 24 months for Medicare managed care members who participated in the Care Advocate Program (CA Program) designed to link those with high health care utilization to home-and community-based services. Data Source. Secondary data from the CA Program, part of the California HealthCare Foundation's Elders in Managed Care Initiative. Study Design. Randomized-control trial in which participants (N 5 781) were randomly assigned to intent-to-treat (ITT) and control groups. ITT group received telephonic social care management and 12 months of follow-up. Various multivariate analyses were used to evaluate mortality risk throughout multiple study periods controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, health status, and health care utilization. Population Studied. Older adults (651) enrolled in a Medicare managed care plan who had high health care utilization in the previous year. Principal Findings. ITT group had a significantly lower odds of mortality throughout the study (OR 5 0.55; p 5 .005) and during the care management intervention (OR 5 0.45; p 5 .006), whereas differential risk in the postintervention period was not statistically significant. Other significant predictors of mortality were age, gender, three chronic conditions (cancer, heart disease, and kidney disease), and emergency room utilization. Conclusions. Findings suggest that the care advocate model of social care management affected mortality while the program was in progress, but not after completion of the intervention phase. Key model elements accounted for the findings, which include individualized targeting, assessment, and monitoring; consumer choice, control, and participant self-management; and bridging medical and social service delivery systems through direct linkages and communication

Elder abuse prevalence in community settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Elder abuse is recognised worldwide as a serious problem, yet quantitative syntheses of prevalence studies are rare. We aimed to quantify and understand prevalence variation at the global and regional levels. Methods: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched 14 databases, including PubMed, PsycINFO, CINAHL, EMBASE, and MEDLINE, using a comprehensive search strategy to identify elder abuse prevalence studies in the community published from inception to June 26, 2015. Studies reporting estimates of past-year abuse prevalence in adults aged 60 years or older were included in the analyses. Subgroup analysis and meta-regression were used to explore heterogeneity, with study quality assessed with the risk of bias tool. The study protocol has been registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42015029197. Findings: Of the 38 544 studies initially identified, 52 were eligible for inclusion. These studies were geographically diverse (28 countries). The pooled prevalence rate for overall elder abuse was 15·7% (95% CI 12·8–19·3). The pooled prevalence estimate was 11·6% (8·1–16·3) for psychological abuse, 6·8% (5·0–9·2) for financial abuse, 4·2% (2·1–8·1) for neglect, 2·6% (1·6–4·4) for physical abuse, and 0·9% (0·6–1·4) for sexual abuse. Meta-analysis of studies that included overall abuse revealed heterogeneity. Significant associations were found between overall prevalence estimates and sample size, income classification, and method of data collection, but not with gender. Interpretation: Although robust prevalence studies are sparse in low-income and middle-income countries, elder abuse seems to affect one in six older adults worldwide, which is roughly 141 million people. Nonetheless, elder abuse is a neglected global public health priority, especially compared with other types of violence. Funding: Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the WHO Department of Ageing and Life Course