Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models : effects of human activity and climate change on fire activity in California

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change

UV Colors and Extinctions of HII Regions in the Whirlpool Galaxy (M51)

Far-UV (1520 ang.), U, H-alpha, and R images of the interacting Sbc spiral galaxy M51 were obtained by the Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (UIT) and at Mt. Laguna Observatory. The mu(152)-mu(U) radial gradient of >1 mag, becoming bluer with increasing radius, is attributed primarily to a corresponding radial extinction gradient. Magnitudes in both UV bands and H-alpha fluxes are reported for 28 HII regions. Optical extinctions for the 28 corresponding UV sources are computed from the measured m(152)-U colors by fitting to the optical extinctions of Nakai and Kuno (1995). The normalized far-UV extinction A(152)/E(B-V) increases with radius or decreasing metallicity, from 5.99 to 6.54, compared with the Galactic value 8.33. The best-fit m(152)-U color for no extinction, -3.07, is the color of a model solar metallicity starburst of age ~2.5 Myr with IMF slope -1.0. HII regions show decreasing observed H-alpha fluxes with decreasing radius, relative to the H-alpha fluxes predicted from the observed f(152) for age 2.5 Myr, after correction for extinction. We attribute the increasing fraction of ``missing'' H-alpha flux with decreasing radius to increasing extinction in the Lyman continuum. Increasing extinction-corrected far-UV flux of the HII regions with decreasing radius is probably a result of the corresponding increasing column density of the interstellar gas resulting in larger mass OB associations. The estimated dust-absorbed Lyman continuum flux is ~0.6 times the far-infrared energy flux of M51 observed by IRAS.Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures, latex, uses AASMS4 and EPS

A Pair of Dopamine Neurons Target the D1-Like Dopamine Receptor DopR in the Central Complex to Promote Ethanol-Stimulated Locomotion in Drosophila

Dopamine is a mediator of the stimulant properties of drugs of abuse, including ethanol, in mammals and in the fruit fly Drosophila. The neural substrates for the stimulant actions of ethanol in flies are not known. We show that a subset of dopamine neurons and their targets, through the action of the D1-like dopamine receptor DopR, promote locomotor activation in response to acute ethanol exposure. A bilateral pair of dopaminergic neurons in the fly brain mediates the enhanced locomotor activity induced by ethanol exposure, and promotes locomotion when directly activated. These neurons project to the central complex ellipsoid body, a structure implicated in regulating motor behaviors. Ellipsoid body neurons are required for ethanol-induced locomotor activity and they express DopR. Elimination of DopR blunts the locomotor activating effects of ethanol, and this behavior can be restored by selective expression of DopR in the ellipsoid body. These data tie the activity of defined dopamine neurons to D1-like DopR-expressing neurons to form a neural circuit that governs acute responding to ethanol

Far Ultraviolet Imagery of the Edge-On Spiral Galaxy NGC 4631

Far ultraviolet FUV imagery of the edge-on, Sc/SBd galaxy, NGC 4631 reveals very strong FUV emission, resulting from active star formation, uniformly distributed along the galactic mid- plane. Multi-band imagery, HI and HII position-velocity curves and extinction considerations all imply that the emission is from the outer edges of the visible galaxy. The overall FUV morphology of this edge-on disk system is remarkably similar to those of the so-called "chain galaxies" evident at high redshift, thus suggesting a similar interpretation for at least some of those distant objects. FUV, U, B and V magnitudes, measured for 48 star forming regions, along with corresponding H-alpha and H-beta measurements are used to construct diagnostic color-color diagrams. Although there are significant exceptions, most of the star forming regions are less massive and older than 30 Doradus. Comparison with the expectations from two star formation models yields ages of 2.7 to 10 Myr for the instantaneous burst (IB) model and star formation cut-off ages of 0 to 9 Myr for the continuous star formation (CSF) model. Interpreted in terms of the IB model the photometry implies a total created mass in the 48 star forming regions of 25 million solar-masses. When viewed as resulting from constant star formation the photometry implies a star formation rate of 0.33 solar-masses/yr. These results are compared to those derived from FIR and radio observations. Corrections for FUV emission reprocessed by interstellar grains are estimated.Comment: 29 pages including 6 encapsulated Postscript figures; accepted for publication in ApJ; changed table forma

The Accuracy of Clinical Staging of Stage I-IIIa Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer : An Analysis Based on Individual Participant Data

BACKGROUND: Clinical staging of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) helps determine the prognosis and treatment of patients; few data exist on the accuracy of clinical staging and the impact on treatment and survival of patients. We assessed whether participant or trial characteristics were associated with clinical staging accuracy as well as impact on survival. METHODS: We used individual participant data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs), supplied for a meta-analysis of preoperative chemotherapy (+/- radiotherapy) vs surgery alone (+/- radiotherapy) in NSCLC. We assessed agreement between clinical TNM (cTNM) stage at randomization and pathologic TNM (pTNM) stage, for participants in the control group. RESULT: Results are based on 698 patients who received surgery alone (+/- radiotherapy) with data for cTNM and pTNM stage. Forty-six percent of cases were cTNM stage I, 23% were cTNM stage II, and 31% were cTNM stage IIIa. cTNM stage disagreed with pTNM stage in 48% of cases, with 34% clinically understaged and 14% clinically overstaged. Agreement was not associated with age (P = .12), sex (P = .62), histology (P = .82), staging method (P = .32), or year of randomization (P = .98). Poorer survival in understaged patients was explained by the underlying pTNM stage. Clinical staging failed to detect T4 disease in 10% of cases and misclassified nodal disease in 38%. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates suboptimal agreement between clinical and pathologic staging. Discrepancies between clinical and pathologic T and N staging could have led to different treatment decisions in 10% and 38% of cases, respectively. There is therefore a need for further research into improving staging accuracy for patients with stage I-IIIa NSCLC.Peer reviewe

Investigating the role of prior and observation error correlations in improving a model forecast of forest carbon balance using Four Dimensional Variational data assimilation

Efforts to implement variational data assimilation routines with functional ecology models and land surface models have been limited, with sequential and Markov chain Monte Carlo data assimilation methods being prevalent. When data assimilation has been used with models of carbon balance, prior or “background” errors (in the initial state and parameter values) and observation errors have largely been treated as independent and uncorrelated. Correlations between background errors have long been known to be a key aspect of data assimilation in numerical weather prediction. More recently, it has been shown that accounting for correlated observation errors in the assimilation algorithm can considerably improve data assimilation results and forecasts. In this paper we implement a Four-Dimensional Variational data assimilation (4D-Var) scheme with a simple model of forest carbon balance, for joint parameter and state estimation and assimilate daily observations of Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange (NEE) taken at the Alice Holt forest CO2 flux site in Hampshire, UK. We then investigate the effect of specifying correlations between parameter and state variables in background error statistics and the effect of specifying correlations in time between observation errors. The idea of including these correlations in time is new and has not been previously explored in carbon balance model data assimilation. In data assimilation, background and observation error statistics are often described by the background error covariance matrix and the observation error covariance matrix. We outline novel methods for creating correlated versions of these matrices, using a set of previously postulated dynamical constraints to include correlations in the background error statistics and a Gaussian correlation function to include time correlations in the observation error statistics. The methods used in this paper will allow the inclusion of time correlations between many different observation types in the assimilation algorithm, meaning that previously neglected information can be accounted for. In our experiments we assimilate a single year of NEE observations and then run a forecast for the next 14 years. We compare the results using our new correlated background and observation error covariance matrices and those using diagonal covariance matrices. We find that using the new correlated matrices reduces the root mean square error in the 14 year forecast of daily NEE by 44% decreasing from 4.22 gCm−2 day−1 to 2.38 gCm−2 day−

Early Developmental Responses to Seedling Environment Modulate Later Plasticity to Light Spectral Quality

Correlations between developmentally plastic traits may constrain the joint evolution of traits. In plants, both seedling de-etiolation and shade avoidance elongation responses to crowding and foliage shade are mediated by partially overlapping developmental pathways, suggesting the possibility of pleiotropic constraints. To test for such constraints, we exposed inbred lines of Impatiens capensis to factorial combinations of leaf litter (which affects de-etiolation) and simulated foliage shade (which affects phytochrome-mediated shade avoidance). Increased elongation of hypocotyls caused by leaf litter phenotypically enhanced subsequent elongation of the first internode in response to low red∶far red (R∶FR). Trait expression was correlated across litter and shade conditions, suggesting that phenotypic effects of early plasticity on later plasticity may affect variation in elongation traits available to selection in different light environments

The satisfactory growth and development at 2 years of age of the INTERGROWTH-21st Fetal Growth Standards cohort support its appropriateness for constructing international standards.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends that human growth should be monitored with the use of international standards. However, in obstetric practice, we continue to monitor fetal growth using numerous local charts or equations that are based on different populations for each body structure. Consistent with World Health Organization recommendations, the INTERGROWTH-21st Project has produced the first set of international standards to date pregnancies; to monitor fetal growth, estimated fetal weight, Doppler measures, and brain structures; to measure uterine growth, maternal nutrition, newborn infant size, and body composition; and to assess the postnatal growth of preterm babies. All these standards are based on the same healthy pregnancy cohort. Recognizing the importance of demonstrating that, postnatally, this cohort still adhered to the World Health Organization prescriptive approach, we followed their growth and development to the key milestone of 2 years of age. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine whether the babies in the INTERGROWTH-21st Project maintained optimal growth and development in childhood. STUDY DESIGN: In the Infant Follow-up Study of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project, we evaluated postnatal growth, nutrition, morbidity, and motor development up to 2 years of age in the children who contributed data to the construction of the international fetal growth, newborn infant size and body composition at birth, and preterm postnatal growth standards. Clinical care, feeding practices, anthropometric measures, and assessment of morbidity were standardized across study sites and documented at 1 and 2 years of age. Weight, length, and head circumference age- and sex-specific z-scores and percentiles and motor development milestones were estimated with the use of the World Health Organization Child Growth Standards and World Health Organization milestone distributions, respectively. For the preterm infants, corrected age was used. Variance components analysis was used to estimate the percentage variability among individuals within a study site compared with that among study sites. RESULTS: There were 3711 eligible singleton live births; 3042 children (82%) were evaluated at 2 years of age. There were no substantive differences between the included group and the lost-to-follow up group. Infant mortality rate was 3 per 1000; neonatal mortality rate was 1.6 per 1000. At the 2-year visit, the children included in the INTERGROWTH-21st Fetal Growth Standards were at the 49th percentile for length, 50th percentile for head circumference, and 58th percentile for weight of the World Health Organization Child Growth Standards. Similar results were seen for the preterm subgroup that was included in the INTERGROWTH-21st Preterm Postnatal Growth Standards. The cohort overlapped between the 3rd and 97th percentiles of the World Health Organization motor development milestones. We estimated that the variance among study sites explains only 5.5% of the total variability in the length of the children between birth and 2 years of age, although the variance among individuals within a study site explains 42.9% (ie, 8 times the amount explained by the variation among sites). An increase of 8.9 cm in adult height over mean parental height is estimated to occur in the cohort from low-middle income countries, provided that children continue to have adequate health, environmental, and nutritional conditions. CONCLUSION: The cohort enrolled in the INTERGROWTH-21st standards remained healthy with adequate growth and motor development up to 2 years of age, which supports its appropriateness for the construction of international fetal and preterm postnatal growth standards