Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150623/ncomms8535/full/ncomms8535.html.Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.This work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and also by the EU project SPECS funded by the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Research Programme under the grant agreement 308378 (Met Office Hadley Centre authors), by the NERC National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) Climate directorate (L.J.G. and A.C.M.), an ERC ACCI grant (A.C.M) and an AXA Postdoctoral Fellowship (A.C.M.)

Phase II study of intravenous etoposide in patients with relapsed ependymoma (CNS 2001 04)

BackgroundRelapsed ependymoma has a dismal prognosis, and the role of chemotherapy at relapse remains unclear. This study prospectively evaluated the efficacy of intensive intravenous (IV) etoposide in patients less than 21 years of age with relapsed intracranial ependymoma (NCT00278252).MethodsThis was a single-arm, open-label, phase II trial using Gehan’s two-stage design. Patients received IV etoposide 100 mg/m2 on days 1-3, 8-10, and 15-17 of each 28-day cycle, up to maximum of 6 cycles. Primary outcome was radiological response after 3 cycles. Pharmacokinetic analysis was performed in 10 patients.ResultsTwenty-five patients were enrolled and included in the intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis. Three patients were excluded in per-protocol (PP) analysis. After 3 cycles of etoposide, 5 patients (ITT 20%/PP 23%) had a complete response (CR), partial response (PR), or objective response (OR). Nine patients (ITT 36%/PP 41%,) had a best overall response of CR, PR, or OR. 1-year PFS was 24% in ITT and 23% in PP populations. 1-year OS was 56% and 59%, 5-year OS was 20% and 18%, respectively, in ITT and PP populations. Toxicity was predominantly hematological, with 20/25 patients experiencing a grade 3 or higher hematological adverse event.ConclusionsThis study confirms the activity of IV etoposide against relapsed ependymoma, however, this is modest, not sustained, and similar to that with oral etoposide, albeit with increased toxicity. These results confirm the dismal prognosis of this disease, provide a rationale to include etoposide within drug combinations, and highlight the need to develop novel treatments for recurrent ependymoma

Revisiting the Relationship among Metrics of Tropical Expansion

There is mounting evidence that the width of the tropics has increased over the last few decades, but there are large differences in reported expansion rates. This is, likely, in part due to the wide variety of metrics that have been used to define the tropical width. Here we perform a systematic investigation into the relationship among nine metrics of the zonal-mean tropical width using preindustrial control and abrupt quadrupling of CO2 simulations from a suite of coupled climate models. It is shown that the latitudes of the edge of the Hadley cell, the midlatitude eddy-driven jet, the edge of the subtropical dry zones, and the Southern Hemisphere subtropical high covary interannually and exhibit similar long-term responses to a quadrupling of CO2. However, metrics based on the outgoing longwave radiation, the position of the subtropical jet, the break in the tropopause, and the Northern Hemisphere subtropical high have very weak covariations with the above metrics and/or respond differently to increases in CO2 and thus are not good indicators of the expansion of the Hadley cell or subtropical dry zone. The differing variability and responses to increases in CO2 among metrics highlights that care is needed when choosing metrics for studies of the width of the tropics and that it is important to make sure the metric used is appropriate for the specific phenomena and impacts being examined

Methodological challenges in collecting social and behavioural data regarding the HIV epidemic among gay and other men who have sex with men in Australia

©2014 Zablotska et al. Background: Behavioural surveillance and research among gay and other men who have sex with men (GMSM) commonly relies on non-random recruitment approaches. Methodological challenges limit their ability to accurately represent the population of adult GMSM. We compared the social and behavioural profiles of GMSM recruited via venue-based, online, and respondent-driven sampling (RDS) and discussed their utility for behavioural surveillance. Methods: Data from four studies were selected to reflect each recruitment method. We compared demographic characteristics and the prevalence of key indicators including sexual and HIV testing practices obtained from samples recruited through different methods, and population estimates from respondent-driven sampling partition analysis. Results: Overall, the socio-demographic profile of GMSM was similar across samples, with some differences observed in age and sexual identification. Men recruited through time-location sampling appeared more connected to the gay community, reported a greater number of sexual partners, but engaged in less unprotected anal intercourse with regular (UAIR) or casual partners (UAIC). The RDS sample overestimated the proportion of HIV-positive men and appeared to recruit men with an overall higher number of sexual partners. A single-website survey recruited a sample with characteristics which differed considerably from the population estimates with regards to age, ethnically diversity and behaviour. Data acquired through time-location sampling underestimated the rates of UAIR and UAIC, while RDS and online sampling both generated samples that underestimated UAIR. Simulated composite samples combining recruits from time-location and multi-website online sampling may produce characteristics more consistent with the population estimates, particularly with regards to sexual practices. Conclusion: Respondent-driven sampling produced the sample that was most consistent to population estimates, but this methodology is complex and logistically demanding. Time-location and online recruitment are more cost-effective and easier to implement; using these approaches in combination may offer the potential to recruit a more representative sample of GMSM

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Past changes in the vertical distribution of ozone - Part 3: Analysis and interpretation of trends

This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Copernicus Publications via http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9965-2015Abstract. Trends in the vertical distribution of ozone are reported and compared for a number of new and recently revised data sets. The amount of ozone-depleting compounds in the stratosphere (as measured by equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine – EESC) was maximised in the second half of the 1990s. We examine the periods before and after the peak to see if any change in trend is discernible in the ozone record that might be attributable to a change in the EESC trend, though no attribution is attempted. Prior to 1998, trends in the upper stratosphere (~ 45 km, 4 hPa) are found to be −5 to −10 % per decade at mid-latitudes and closer to −5 % per decade in the tropics. No trends are found in the mid-stratosphere (28 km, 30 hPa). Negative trends are seen in the lower stratosphere at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres and in the deep tropics. However, it is hard to be categorical about the trends in the lower stratosphere for three reasons: (i) there are fewer measurements, (ii) the data quality is poorer, and (iii) the measurements in the 1990s are perturbed by aerosols from the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991. These findings are similar to those reported previously even though the measurements for the main satellite and ground-based records have been revised. There is no sign of a continued negative trend in the upper stratosphere since 1998: instead there is a hint of an average positive trend of ~ 2 % per decade in mid-latitudes and ~ 3 % per decade in the tropics. The significance of these upward trends is investigated using different assumptions of the independence of the trend estimates found from different data sets. The averaged upward trends are significant if the trends derived from various data sets are assumed to be independent (as in Pawson et al., 2014) but are generally not significant if the trends are not independent. This occurs because many of the underlying measurement records are used in more than one merged data set. At this point it is not possible to say which assumption is best. Including an estimate of the drift of the overall ozone observing system decreases the significance of the trends. The significance will become clearer as (i) more years are added to the observational record, (ii) further improvements are made to the historic ozone record (e.g. through algorithm development), and (iii) the data merging techniques are refined, particularly through a more rigorous treatment of uncertainties. The support of SPARC, IO3C, IGACO-O3 and NDACC was essential to the success of the initiative. Neil Harris thanks the UK Natural Environment Research Council for an Advanced Research Fellowship. Work at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory was performed under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Measurements at Lauder are core funded through New Zealand’s Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, while those at Woolongong are supported by the Australian Research Council

Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends

Simulated stratospheric temperatures over the period 1979–2016 in models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative are compared with recently updated and extended satellite data sets. The multimodel mean global temperature trends over 1979–2005 are -0.88 ± 0.23, -0.70 ± 0.16, and -0.50 ± 0.12 K/decade for the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) channels 3 (~40–50 km), 2 (~35–45 km), and 1 (~25–35 km), respectively (with 95% confidence intervals). These are within the uncertainty bounds of the observed temperature trends from two reprocessed SSU data sets. In the lower stratosphere, the multimodel mean trend in global temperature for the Microwave Sounding Unit channel 4 (~13–22 km) is -0.25 ± 0.12 K/decade over 1979–2005, consistent with observed estimates from three versions of this satellite record. The models and an extended satellite data set comprised of SSU with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A show weaker global stratospheric cooling over 1998–2016 compared to the period of intensive ozone depletion (1979–1997). This is due to the reduction in ozone-induced cooling from the slowdown of ozone trends and the onset of ozone recovery since the late 1990s. In summary, the results show much better consistency between simulated and satellite-observed stratospheric temperature trends than was reported by Thompson et al. (2012, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11579) for the previous versions of the SSU record and chemistry-climate models. The improved agreement mainly comes from updates to the satellite records; the range of stratospheric temperature trends over 1979–2005 simulated in Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative models is comparable to the previous generation of chemistry-climate models