LPJ-GUESS/LSMv1.0: a next-generation land surface model with high ecological realism

Land biosphere processes are of central importance to the climate system. Specifically, ecosystems interact with the atmosphere through a variety of feedback loops that modulate energy, water, and CO$_{2}$ fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere across a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Human land use and land cover modification add a further level of complexity to land–atmosphere interactions. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) attempt to capture land ecosystem processes and are increasingly incorporated into Earth system models (ESMs), which makes it possible to study the coupled dynamics of the land biosphere and the climate. In this work we describe a number of modifications to the LPJ-GUESS DGVM, aimed at enabling direct integration into an ESM. These include energy balance closure, the introduction of a sub-daily time step, a new radiative transfer scheme, and improved soil physics. The implemented modifications allow the model (LPJ-GUESS/LSM) to simulate the diurnal exchange of energy, water, and CO$_{2}$ between the land ecosystem and the atmosphere and thus provide surface boundary conditions to an atmospheric model over land. A site-based evaluation against FLUXNET2015 data shows reasonable agreement between observed and modelled sensible and latent heat fluxes. Differences in predicted ecosystem function between standard LPJ-GUESS and LPJ-GUESS/LSM vary across land cover types. We find that the emerging ecosystem composition and carbon fluxes are sensitive to both the choice of stomatal conductance model and the response of plant water uptake to soil moisture. The new implementation described in this work lays the foundation for using the well-established LPJ-GUESS DGVM as an alternative land surface model (LSM) in coupled land–biosphere–climate studies, where an accurate representation of ecosystem processes is essential

State-of-the-art capabilities in LPJ-GUESS

LPJ-GUESS is an advanced DGVM including detailed forest demography and management, croplands, wetlands, specialised arctic processes, emissions of nonCO2 GHGs and a highly flexible land-use change scheme which tracks transitions between different land-uses. It is the vegetation component of the EC-Earth CMIP6 ESM, the RCA-GUESS regional ESM, and also has a European mode operating at tree species level

The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

The Earth system model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major model configurations, a methodology for ensuring the simulations are comparable across different high-performance computing (HPC) systems, and with the physical performance of base configurations over the historical period. The variety of possible configurations and sub-models reflects the broad interests in the EC-Earth community. EC-Earth3 key performance metrics demonstrate physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent CMIP models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new Earth system model (ESM) components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.Peer reviewe

A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands

Northern peatlands store 300–600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO2 and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO2 source and a substantial increase in CH4 emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming by 0.21°C (range, 0.09–0.49°C) by the year 2300. The true warming impact of peatlands might be higher owing to processes not simulated by the models and direct anthropogenic disturbance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding how future warming might trigger high carbon losses from northern peatlands

The Role of Carbon-Nitrogen Interactions for Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics under Global Change - a modelling perspective

The nature of future climate change will depend on anthropogenic emissions of CO2, as well as climate- and CO2-mediated feedbacks through carbon (C) cycling in both terrestrial ecosystems and oceans. Terrestrial ecosystems remove presently about 25% of the anthropogenic CO2 fossil-fuel and land-use change emissions, but to attribute which mechanisms cause this uptake, and the key regions where it occurs, is a challenging task. Considerable attention has focused in recent years on whether, and how, interactions of the C and nitrogen (N) cycles affect the future terrestrial C sink. Until relatively recently these interactions were not considered in models of the global C cycle, although in many ecosystems N is believed to be a limiting factor controlling vegetation productivity. The dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS has been extended with a fully coupled dynamic C-N cycle in vegetation and soil, introducing N limitations on plant production and soil decomposition. With N dynamics, LPJ-GUESS simulates the present C and N pools in soil, litter and vegetation in agreement with observation-based and model estimates. Global simulations show a steeper gradient of productivity from high to low latitudes compared with the C-only model version, increasing the ability to correctly reproduce productivity in boreal and tropical ecosystems when evaluated against 75 FLUXNET forest sites. Secondary effects emerge also via ecosystem ecological processes, such as C-N interactions altering the competition between plant functional types, resulting in some differences in the modelled biome distribution, e.g. a more southerly arctic treeline when N cycle dynamics are included. When applying “business-as-usual” scenario of future atmospheric CO2, climate and N deposition, the inclusion of N dynamics results in moderately higher cumulative C sequestration over the period 1850 to 2100 compared to the C-only version of LPJ-GUESS. This result contrasts to some degree with results of earlier studies using other models that are dominated by progressive N limitation in the future at global scale. In LPJ-GUESS, enhanced soil N mineralisation in a warmer climate particularly affects net primary productivity in high-latitudes, enhancing the growth of trees and providing a transient sink of carbon as woody biomass as boreal forests densify and expand. Our results highlight the need to account for C-N interactions not only in studies of global terrestrial C cycling but to understand the underlying interactions on regional scales

Nitrogen feedbacks increase future terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model [Discussion paper]

Recently a considerable amount of effort has been put into quantifying how interactions of the carbon and nitrogen cycle affect future terrestrial carbon sinks. Dynamic vegetation models, representing the nitrogen cycle with varying degree of complexity, have shown diverging constraints of nitrogen dynamics on future carbon sequestration. In this study, we use the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to evaluate how population dynamics and resource competition between plant functional types, combined with nitrogen dynamics, have influenced the terrestrial carbon storage in the past and to investigate how terrestrial carbon and nitrogen dynamics might change in the future (1850 to 2100; one exemplary "business-as-usual" climate scenario). Single factor model experiments of CO2 fertilisation and climate change show generally similar directions of the responses of C–N interactions, compared to the C-only version of the model, as documented in previous studies. Under a RCP 8.5 scenario, nitrogen limitation suppresses potential CO2 fertilisation, reducing the cumulative net ecosystem carbon uptake between 1850 and 2100 by 61%, and soil warming-induced increase in nitrogen mineralisation reduces terrestrial carbon loss by 31%. When environmental changes are considered conjointly, carbon sequestration is limited by nitrogen dynamics until present. However, during the 21st century nitrogen dynamics induce a net increase in carbon sequestration, resulting in an overall larger carbon uptake of 17% over the full period. This contradicts earlier model results that showed an 8 to 37% decrease in carbon uptake, questioning the often stated assumption that projections of future terrestrial C dynamics from C-only models are too optimistic

Modelling nitrous oxide emissions: comparing algorithms in six widely used agro-ecological models

Agricultural soils are the most important anthropogenic source of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. This occurs via two main pathways: (1) from microbial-mediated oxidation of ammonium to nitrite and nitrate; and (2) denitrification. Most agro-ecological models explicitly deal with these two pathways albeit with different degrees of process understanding and empiricism. Models that integrate the impact of multiple environmental factors on N2O emissions can provide estimates of N2O fluxes from complex agricultural systems. However, uncertainties in model predictions arise from differences in the algorithms, imperfect quantification of the nitrification and denitrification response to edaphic conditions, and the spatial and temporal variability of N2O fluxes resulting from variable soil conditions. This study compared N2O responses to environmental factors in six agro-ecological models. The comparisons showed that environmental factors impact nitrification and denitrification differently in each model. Reasons include the inability to apportion the total N2O flux to the specific N transformation rates used to validate and calibrate the simplifications represented in the model algorithms, and incomplete understanding of the multiple interactions between processes and modifying factors as these are generally not quantified in field experiments. Rather, N2O flux data is reported as total or net N2O emissions without attributing emissions to gross and/or net rates for specific N processes, or considering changes that occur between production and emissions. Additional measurements that quantify all processes understand the multiple interactions that affect N2O emissions are needed to improve model algorithms and reduce the error associated with predicted emissions

Bedrock Weathering Controls on Terrestrial Carbon-Nitrogen-Climate Interactions

Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition is widely considered to increase CO2 sequestration by land plants on a global scale. Here, we demonstrate that bedrock nitrogen weathering contributes significantly more to nitrogen-carbon interactions than anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. This working hypothesis is based on the introduction of empirical results into a global biogeochemical simulation model over the time period of the mid-1800s to the end of the 21st century. Our findings suggest that rock nitrogen inputs have contributed roughly 2–11 times more to plant CO2 capture than nitrogen deposition inputs since pre-industrial times. Climate change projections based on RCP 8.5 show that rock nitrogen inputs and biological nitrogen fixation contribute 2–5 times more to terrestrial carbon uptake than anthropogenic nitrogen deposition though year 2101. Future responses of rock N inputs on plant CO2 capture rates are more signficant at higher latitudes and in mountainous environments, where geological and climate factors promote higher rock weathering rates. The enhancement of plant CO2 uptake via rock nitrogen weathering partially resolves nitrogen-carbon discrepancies in Earth system models and offers an alternative explanation for lack of progressive nitrogen limitation in the terrestrial biosphere. We conclude that natural N inputs impart major control over terrestrial CO2 sequestration in Earth’s ecosystems

LPJ-GUESS/LSMv1.0 : A next-generation land surface model with high ecological realism

Land biosphere processes are of central importance to the climate system. Specifically, ecosystems interact with the atmosphere through a variety of feedback loops that modulate energy, water, and CO2 fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere across a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Human land use and land cover modification add a further level of complexity to land-atmosphere interactions. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) attempt to capture land ecosystem processes and are increasingly incorporated into Earth system models (ESMs), which makes it possible to study the coupled dynamics of the land biosphere and the climate. In this work we describe a number of modifications to the LPJ-GUESS DGVM, aimed at enabling direct integration into an ESM. These include energy balance closure, the introduction of a sub-daily time step, a new radiative transfer scheme, and improved soil physics. The implemented modifications allow the model (LPJ-GUESS/LSM) to simulate the diurnal exchange of energy, water, and CO2 between the land ecosystem and the atmosphere and thus provide surface boundary conditions to an atmospheric model over land. A site-based evaluation against FLUXNET2015 data shows reasonable agreement between observed and modelled sensible and latent heat fluxes. Differences in predicted ecosystem function between standard LPJ-GUESS and LPJ-GUESS/LSM vary across land cover types. We find that the emerging ecosystem composition and carbon fluxes are sensitive to both the choice of stomatal conductance model and the response of plant water uptake to soil moisture. The new implementation described in this work lays the foundation for using the well-established LPJ-GUESS DGVM as an alternative land surface model (LSM) in coupled land-biosphere-climate studies, where an accurate representation of ecosystem processes is essential