Multilevel latent class casemix modelling: a novel approach to accommodate patient casemix

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Using routinely collected patient data we explore the utility of multilevel latent class (MLLC) models to adjust for patient casemix and rank Trust performance. We contrast this with ranks derived from Trust standardised mortality ratios (SMRs).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients with colorectal cancer diagnosed between 1998 and 2004 and resident in Northern and Yorkshire regions were identified from the cancer registry database (n = 24,640). Patient age, sex, stage-at-diagnosis (Dukes), and Trust of diagnosis/treatment were extracted. Socioeconomic background was derived using the Townsend Index. Outcome was survival at 3 years after diagnosis. MLLC-modelled and SMR-generated Trust ranks were compared.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Patients were assigned to two classes of similar size: one with reasonable prognosis (63.0% died within 3 years), and one with better prognosis (39.3% died within 3 years). In patient class one, all patients diagnosed at stage B or C died within 3 years; in patient class two, all patients diagnosed at stage A, B or C survived. Trusts were assigned two classes with 51.3% and 53.2% of patients respectively dying within 3 years. Differences in the ranked Trust performance between the MLLC model and SMRs were all within estimated 95% CIs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A novel approach to casemix adjustment is illustrated, ranking Trust performance whilst facilitating the evaluation of factors associated with the patient journey (e.g. treatments) and factors associated with the processes of healthcare delivery (e.g. delays). Further research can demonstrate the value of modelling patient pathways and evaluating healthcare processes across provider institutions.</p

Participatory instructional redesign by students and teachers in secondary education: effects on perceptions of instruction

Könings, K. D., Brand-Gruwel, S., & Van Merriënboer, J. J. G. (2011). Participatory instructional redesign by students and teachers in secondary education: effects on perceptions of instruction. Instructional Science, 39(5), 737–762.Students’ perceptions of instruction are important because they direct the learning of students. The fact that teachers have only limited knowledge of these perceptions is likely to threaten the effectiveness of learning, because congruence between interpretations of an instructional intervention is necesarry for its optimal use. This study examines participatory design as a strategy for taking student perceptions into account in instructional re/design. Participatory design meetings of groups of teachers and seven co-designing students in a secondary education setting identified changes to improve the regular education process. The results on changes in student perceptions, perceived-desired discrepancy, and teacher-student disagreement showed some improvement for the co-designers but, unexpectedly, limited or even negative effects for the non-co-designing students. Possible causes are discussed. Participatory design seems to have potential for improving education, but further research is needed

First measurement of the |t|-dependence of coherent J/ψ photonuclear production

The first measurement of the cross section for coherent J/ψ photoproduction as a function of |t|, the square of the momentum transferred between the incoming and outgoing target nucleus, is presented. The data were measured with the ALICE detector in ultra-peripheral Pb–Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair sNN=5.02TeV with the J/ψ produced in the central rapidity region |y|<0.8, which corresponds to the small Bjorken-x range (0.3−1.4)×10−3. The measured |t|-dependence is not described by computations based only on the Pb nuclear form factor, while the photonuclear cross section is better reproduced by models including shadowing according to the leading-twist approximation, or gluon-saturation effects from the impact-parameter dependent Balitsky–Kovchegov equation. These new results are therefore a valid tool to constrain the relevant model parameters and to investigate the transverse gluonic structure at very low Bjorken-x.publishedVersio

Plos Med

Background The ε4 allele of apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene and increasing age are two of the most important known risk factors for developing Alzheimer disease (AD). The diagnosis of AD based on clinical symptoms alone is known to have poor specificity; recently developed diagnostic criteria based on biomarkers that reflect underlying AD neuropathology allow better assessment of the strength of the associations of risk factors with AD. Accordingly, we examined the global and age-specific association between APOE genotype and AD by using the A/T/N classification, relying on the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) levels of β-amyloid peptide (A, β-amyloid deposition), phosphorylated tau (T, pathologic tau), and total tau (N, neurodegeneration) to identify patients with AD. Methods and findings This case–control study included 1,593 white AD cases (55.4% women; mean age 72.8 [range = 44–96] years) with abnormal values of CSF biomarkers from nine European memory clinics and the American Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study. A total of 11,723 dementia-free controls (47.1% women; mean age 65.6 [range = 44–94] years) were drawn from two longitudinal cohort studies (Whitehall II and Three-City), in which incident cases of dementia over the follow-up were excluded from the control population. Odds ratio (OR) and population attributable fraction (PAF) for AD associated with APOE genotypes were determined, overall and by 5-year age categories. In total, 63.4% of patients with AD and 22.6% of population controls carried at least one APOE ε4 allele. Compared with non-ε4 carriers, heterozygous ε4 carriers had a 4.6 (95% confidence interval 4.1–5.2; p < 0.001) and ε4/ε4 homozygotes a 25.4 (20.4–31.2; p < 0.001) higher OR of AD in unadjusted analysis. This association was modified by age (p for interaction < 0.001). The PAF associated with carrying at least one ε4 allele was greatest in the 65–70 age group (69.7%) and weaker before 55 years (14.2%) and after 85 years (22.6%). The protective effect of APOE ε2 allele for AD was unaffected by age. Main study limitations are that analyses were based on white individuals and AD cases were drawn from memory centers, which may not be representative of the general population of patients with AD. Conclusions In this study, we found that AD diagnosis based on biomarkers was associated with APOE ε4 carrier status, with a higher OR than previously reported from studies based on only clinical AD criteria. This association differs according to age, with the strongest effect at 65–70 years. These findings highlight the need for early interventions for dementia prevention to mitigate the effect of APOE ε4 at the population level

A(c)(+) Production and Baryon-to-Meson Ratios in pp and p-Pb Collisions at root S-NN=5.02 TeV at the LHC

The prompt production of the charm baryon \u39bc+ and the \u39bc+/D0 production ratios were measured at midrapidity with the ALICE detector in pp and p-Pb collisions at sNN=5.02 TeV. These new measurements show a clear decrease of the \u39bc+/D0 ratio with increasing transverse momentum (pT) in both collision systems in the range 2<12 GeV/c, exhibiting similarities with the light-flavor baryon-to-meson ratios p/\u3c0 and \u39b/KS0. At low pT, predictions that include additional color-reconnection mechanisms beyond the leading-color approximation, assume the existence of additional higher-mass charm-baryon states, or include hadronization via coalescence can describe the data, while predictions driven by charm-quark fragmentation processes measured in e+e- and e-p collisions significantly underestimate the data. The results presented in this Letter provide significant evidence that the established assumption of universality (colliding-system independence) of parton-to-hadron fragmentation is not sufficient to describe charm-baryon production in hadronic collisions at LHC energies

A(c)(+) Production and Baryon-to-Meson Ratios in pp and p-Pb Collisions at root S-NN=5.02 TeV at the LHC

The prompt production of the charm baryon Λ_{c}^{+} and the Λ_{c}^{+}/D^{0} production ratios were measured at midrapidity with the ALICE detector in pp and p-Pb collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=5.02  TeV. These new measurements show a clear decrease of the Λ_{c}^{+}/D^{0} ratio with increasing transverse momentum (p_{T}) in both collision systems in the range 2<p_{T}<12  GeV/c, exhibiting similarities with the light-flavor baryon-to-meson ratios p/π and Λ/K_{S}^{0}. At low p_{T}, predictions that include additional color-reconnection mechanisms beyond the leading-color approximation, assume the existence of additional higher-mass charm-baryon states, or include hadronization via coalescence can describe the data, while predictions driven by charm-quark fragmentation processes measured in e^{+}e^{-} and e^{-}p collisions significantly underestimate the data. The results presented in this Letter provide significant evidence that the established assumption of universality (colliding-system independence) of parton-to-hadron fragmentation is not sufficient to describe charm-baryon production in hadronic collisions at LHC energies

Resolving the strange behavior of extraterrestrial potassium in the upper atmosphere

It has been known since the 1960s that the layers of Na and K atoms, which occur between 80 and 105 km in the Earth's atmosphere as a result of meteoric ablation, exhibit completely different seasonal behavior. In the extratropics Na varies annually, with a pronounced wintertime maximum and summertime minimum. However, K varies semiannually with a small summertime maximum and minima at the equinoxes. This contrasting behavior has never been satisfactorily explained. Here we use a combination of electronic structure and chemical kinetic rate theory to determine two key differences in the chemistries of K and Na. First, the neutralization of K+ ions is only favored at low temperatures during summer. Second, cycling between K and its major neutral reservoir KHCO3 is essentially temperature independent. A whole atmosphere model incorporating this new chemistry, together with a meteor input function, now correctly predicts the seasonal behavior of the K layer