Is annual surveillance of all treated hypothyroid patients necessary?

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Description and validation of a Markov model of survival for individuals free of cardiovascular disease that uses Framingham risk factors

BACKGROUND: Estimation of cardiovascular disease risk is increasingly used to inform decisions on interventions, such as the use of antihypertensives and statins, or to communicate the risks of smoking. Crude 10-year cardiovascular disease risk risks may not give a realistic view of the likely impact of an intervention over a lifetime and will underestimate of the risks of smoking. A validated model of survival to act as a decision aid in the consultation may help to address these problems. This study aims to describe the development of such a model for use with people free of cardiovascular disease and evaluates its accuracy against data from a United Kingdom cohort. METHODS: A Markov cycle tree evaluated using cohort simulation was developed utilizing Framingham estimates of cardiovascular risk, 1998 United Kingdom mortality data, the relative risk for smoking related non-cardiovascular disease risk and changes in systolic blood pressure and serum total cholesterol total cholesterol with age. The model's estimates of survival at 20 years for 1391 members of the Whickham survey cohort between the ages of 35 and 65 were compared with the observed survival at 20-year follow-up. RESULTS: The model estimate for survival was 75% and the observed survival was 75.4%. The correlation between estimated and observed survival was 0.933 over 39 subgroups of the cohort stratified by estimated survival, 0.992 for the seven 5-year age bands from 35 to 64, 0.936 for the ten 10 mmHg systolic blood pressure bands between 100 mmHg and 200 mmHg, and 0.693 for the fifteen 0.5 mmol/l total cholesterol bands between 3.0 and 10.0 mmol/l. The model significantly underestimated mortality in those people with a systolic blood pressure greater than or equal to 180 mmHg (p = 0.006). The average gain in life expectancy from the elimination of cardiovascular disease risk as a cause of death was 4.0 years for all the 35 year-old men in the sample (n = 24), and 1.8 years for all the 35 year-old women in the sample (n = 32). CONCLUSIONS: This model accurately estimates 20-year survival in subjects from the Whickham cohort with a systolic blood pressure below 180 mmHg

Population attributable risk for diabetes associated with excess weight in Tehranian adults: a population-based cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Little evidence exists regarding the magnitude of contribution of excess weight to diabetes in the Middle East countries. This study aimed at quantification of the impact of overweight and obesity on the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at a population level in Tehran, Iran.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data of a population-based short-term cohort study in Iran, which began in 1997 with 3.6-year follow-up, we calculated the adjusted odds ratios (OR) and population attributable risks (PAR) of developing T2DM, i.e. the proportion of diabetes that could have been avoided had overweight and/or obesity not been present in the population.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 4728 subjects studied, aged ≥ 20 years, during the 3.6-year follow-up period, 3.8% (n = 182) developed T2DM. This proportion was 1.4%, 3.6%, and 7.8% for the normal, overweight, and obese subjects, respectively. When compared to normal BMI, the adjusted ORs for incident diabetes were 1.76 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07 to 2.89] for overweight and 3.54 (95% CI 2.16 to 5.79) for obesity. The PARs adjusted for family history of diabetes, age, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure was 23.3% for overweight and 37.1% for obesity. These figures were 7.8% and 26.6% for men and 35.3% and 48.3% for women, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Incident T2DM is mainly attributable to excess weight, significantly more so in Tehranian women than men. Nonetheless, the contribution of excess weight in developing T2DM was lower in our short-term study than that reported in long-term periods. This probably reflects the significant role of other risk factors of T2DM in a short-term follow-up. Hence, prevention of excess weight probably should be considered as a major strategy for reducing incidence of T2DM; the contribution of other risk factors in developing T2DM in short-term period deserve to be studied and be taken into account.</p

Variation in 'fast-track' referrals for suspected cancer by patient characteristic and cancer diagnosis: evidence from 670 000 patients with cancers of 35 different sites.

BACKGROUND: In England, 'fast-track' (also known as 'two-week wait') general practitioner referrals for suspected cancer in symptomatic patients are used to shorten diagnostic intervals and are supported by clinical guidelines. However, the use of the fast-track pathway may vary for different patient groups. METHODS: We examined data from 669 220 patients with 35 cancers diagnosed in 2006-2010 following either fast-track or 'routine' primary-to-secondary care referrals using 'Routes to Diagnosis' data. We estimated the proportion of fast-track referrals by sociodemographic characteristic and cancer site and used logistic regression to estimate respective crude and adjusted odds ratios. We additionally explored whether sociodemographic associations varied by cancer. RESULTS: There were large variations in the odds of fast-track referral by cancer (P<0.001). Patients with testicular and breast cancer were most likely to have been diagnosed after a fast-track referral (adjusted odds ratios 2.73 and 2.35, respectively, using rectal cancer as reference); whereas patients with brain cancer and leukaemias least likely (adjusted odds ratios 0.05 and 0.09, respectively, for brain cancer and acute myeloid leukaemia). There were sex, age and deprivation differences in the odds of fast-track referral (P<0.013) that varied in their size and direction for patients with different cancers (P<0.001). For example, fast-track referrals were least likely in younger women with endometrial cancer and in older men with testicular cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Fast-track referrals are less likely for cancers characterised by nonspecific presenting symptoms and patients belonging to low cancer incidence demographic groups. Interventions beyond clinical guidelines for 'alarm' symptoms are needed to improve diagnostic timeliness

Dietary iodine exposure and brain structures and cognition in older people. Exploratory analysis in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936

Background: Iodine deficiency is one of the three key micronutrient deficiencies highlighted as major public health issues by the World Health Organisation. Iodine deficiency is known to cause brain structural alterations likely to affect cognition. However, it is not known whether or how different (lifelong) levels of exposure to dietary iodine influences brain health and cognitive functions. Methods: From 1091 participants initially enrolled in The Lothian Birth Cohort Study 1936, we obtained whole diet data from 882. Three years later, from 866 participants (mean age 72 yrs, SD ±0.8), we obtained cognitive information and ventricular, hippocampal and normal and abnormal tissue volumes from brain structural magnetic resonance imaging scans (n=700). We studied the brain structure and cognitive abilities of iodine-rich food avoiders/low consumers versus those with a high intake in iodine-rich foods (namely dairy and fish). Results: We identified individuals (n=189) with contrasting diets, i) belonging to the lowest quintiles for dairy and fish consumption, ii) milk avoiders, iii) belonging to the middle quintiles for dairy and fish consumption, and iv) belonging to the middle quintiles for dairy and fish consumption. Iodine intake was secured mostly though the diet (n=10 supplement users) and was sufficient for most (75.1%, median 193 μg/day). In individuals from these groups, brain lateral ventricular volume was positively associated with fat, energy and protein intake. The associations between iodine intake and brain ventricular volume and between consumption of fish products (including fish cakes and fish-containing pasties) and white matter hyperintensities (p=0.03) the latest being compounded by sodium, proteins and saturated fats, disappeared after type 1 error correction. Conclusion: In this large Scottish older cohort, the proportion of individuals reporting extreme (low vs. high)/medium iodine consumption is small. In these individuals, low iodine-rich food intake was associated with increased brain volume shrinkage, raising an important hypothesis worth being explored for designing appropriate guidelines

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment

Background High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of populationbased health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the eff ects of risk factors on cause-specifi c mortality from metaanalyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for- each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the eff ects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specifi c population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specifi c deaths. We obtained cause-specifi c mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the fi nal estimates. Findings In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10\ub78 million deaths, 95% CI 10\ub71\u201311\ub75) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined eff ect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7\ub71 million deaths, 6\ub76\u20137\ub76) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined eff ects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing eff ect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the globalresponse to non-communicable diseases

Identification of Novel Genetic Loci Associated with Thyroid Peroxidase Antibodies and Clinical Thyroid Disease

Peer reviewe