Asymmetric preference formation in willingness to pay estimates in discrete choice models

Individuals when faced with choices amongst a number of alternatives often adopt a variety of processing rules, ranging from simple linear to complex non-linear treatment of each attribute defining the offer of each alternative. In this paper we investigate the presence of asymmetry in preferences to test for reference effects and differential willingness to pay according to whether we are valuing gains or losses. The findings offer clear evidence of an asymmetrical response to increases and decreases in attributes when compared to the corresponding values for a reference alternative, where the degree of asymmetry varies across attributes and population segments

Travel time variability and airport accessibility

We analyze the cost of access travel time variability for air travelers. Reliable access to airports is important since the cost of missing a flight is likely to be high. First, the determinants of the preferred arrival times at airports are analyzed. Second, the willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in access travel time, early and late arrival time at the airport, and the probability to miss a flight are estimated, using a stated choice experiment. The results indicate that the WTPs are relatively high. Third, a model is developed to calculate the cost of variable travel times for representative air travelers going by car, taking into account travel time cost, scheduling cost and the cost of missing a flight using empirical travel time data. In this model, the value of reliability for air travelers is derived taking " anticipating departure time choice" into account, meaning that travelers determine their departure time from home optimally. Results of the numerical exercise show that the cost of access travel time variability for business travelers are between 0% and 30% of total access travel cost, and for non-business travelers between 0% and 25%. These numbers depend strongly on the time of the day. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd

962-61 Late Redistribution T1-201/Stress Tc-99m Sestamibi Separate Acquisition Dual Isotope Myocardial Perfusion SPECT: A Feasibility Study

Rest TI201(TI)/stress Tc-sestamibi dual isotope SPECT (DIMPS) is an efficient myocardial perfusion protocol. Patients with rest defects, however, frequently require late TI redistribution imaging the next day. Thus, we recently implemented a modified DIMPS (M-DIMPS), with 3.5 mCi TI injected at rest the night before stress testing. On the day of stress testing, 12–18 hr redistribution TI (late TI) SPECT was performed prior to stress sestamibi study. To assess image quality of late TI, we prospectively studied 107 patients who underwent M-DIMPS. For purposes of comparison between conventional DIMPS and M-DIMPS, a subset (group A, n=41) also had rest TI(25sec/stop, 60 stops) the night before M-DIMPS. Late TI used 30sec/stop. Prereconstruction processing used a 20 Butterworth filter (cut-off: 0.5/order 10 for rest TI, 0.35/order 10 for late TI). Comparisons were made for cardiac counts (counts/pixel) and quantitative heart to background ratio (H/B ratio). Image quality was assessed visually using a 5 point score (0=unacceptable, 4=excellent), based on the evaluation of image uniformity, defect clarity, left ventricular border definition and the apparent H/B ratio, Comparisons between rest TI and late TI in 41 group A patients yielded quantitative H/B ratio of 1.63±0.39 and 1.49±0,31 (p=0.002), and total myocardial counts of 41.4±18.1 and 29.3±11.6 (p<0.001), respectively. Image quality agreement between rest TI and late TI was 90%, with 31 concordant good to excellent and 6 concordant fair studies. Analysis of the 107 late TI studies by patient weight revealed:<150 Ibs (n = 31)150–200 Ibs (n = 60)>200 Ibs (n = 16)pcardiac counts30.4±9.628.9±13.828.9±7.5nsH/B ratio1.49±0.241.46±0.321.42±0.25nsquality = 3 or 490%90%63%<0.05**> 200lbs vs. the other two weight categoriesConclusionAlthough quantitatively different, late TI has acceptable count statistics and comparable visual image quality to rest TI, establishing the feasibility of late TI/stress Tc-sestamibi dual isotope SPECT in non-obese (<200 Ibs) patients. The protocol allows for final reporting on the same day as stress testing, potentially decreasing the length of hospitalization

From mode choice to modal diversion: A new behavioural paradigm and an application to the study of the demand for innovative transport services

We analyse past research efforts that focus on modal diversion in the transport sector, as opposed to the classical mode choice concept, showing the added value of this alternative framework that emerges from the existing scientific literature. The modal diversion paradigm is then used to assess the relative importance of the technical performances of transport services on one hand and of the subjective factors of its potential users on the other, when forecasting the use of a new means among a group of white-collars working in a French research institute. We quantitatively show that multimodal habits and cognitive attitudes have an importance that is in general not negligible for this group, compared to that of the transport services performances, even if only these latter are routinely considered by engineers and planners. Beyond this, we find that the role of self-related factors further increased when the group was less familiar with the technological background and the subsequent operation of the new system, such as in the case of demand responsive transport service

Effective risk stratification using exercise myocardial perfusion SPECT in women: Gender-related differences in prognostic nuclear testing

AbstractObjectives. This study was designed to evaluate the incremental prognostic value over clinical and exercise variables of rest thallium-201/exercise technetium-99m sestamibi single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) in women compared with men and to determine whether this test can be used to effectively risk stratify patients of both genders.Background. To minimize the previously described gender-related bias in the evaluation of coronary artery disease in women, there is a need to identify a noninvasive testing strategy that is able to accurately and effectively risk stratify women.Methods. We identified 4,136 consecutive patients (2,742 men, 1,394 women) who underwent dual-isotope SPECT. The incremental value of nuclear testing was determined using both a stepwise Cox proportional hazards model and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine test discrimination for high risk patients in men and women.Results. The patient population was followed up for 20 ± 5 months for events (cardiac death or nonfatal myocardial infarction). During this time, 63 myocardial infarctions and 32 cardiac deaths occurred in the men, and 31 myocardial infarctions and 14 cardiac deaths occurred in the women. Nuclear testing significantly stratified both men and women irrespective of their rest electrocardiogram. Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that nuclear testing added incremental prognostic value in both men and women after inclusion of the most predictive clinical and exercise variables (overall chi-square 89 in men vs. 120 in women, p < 0.005). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that nuclear testing further stratified men and women with both intermediate to high and low prescan likelihoods of coronary artery disease (p < 0.005 for all). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated superior discrimination for the nuclear scan results in identifying high risk women than men (area under the curve: 0.84 ± 0.03 vs. 0.71 ± 0.03 in men, p < 0.0005). The odds ratio comparing event rates in patients with abnormal versus those with normal scan results was greater in women than in men, suggesting superior stratification using nuclear testing in women.Conclusions. Dual-isotope myocardial perfusion imaging yields incremental prognostic value in both men and women. This modality identifies low risk women and men equally well but relatively high risk women more accurately than relatively high risk men and, thus, is able to stratify women more effectively than men

Exploring consumer preferences towards electric vehicles: The influence of consumer innovativeness

The diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) is regarded as an important aspect of government policy which aims to generate a transition to a low-carbon mobility system in the United Kingdom and the wider European context. This paper investigates consumer demand for EVs by examining the influence of consumer innovativeness alongside attitudes concerning the functional capabilities of EVs over EV preferences. A conceptual framework is developed and applied which includes measurements of innovativeness at both an adoptive level, through an assessment of technology ownership, and at an innate level, by measuring a cohort of psychological and sociological factors. Additionally, the framework incorporates measurements of attitudes towards the functional performance of EVs to determine their effect on preferences. Data has been collected through the application of a self-completion household survey distributed over the cities of Dundee and Newcastle upon Tyne in the United Kingdom. Results of the analysis indicate that adoptive innovativeness and attitudes concerning the functional performance of EVs significantly affect preferences for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs)

Random regret minimization for consumer choice modeling: assessment of empirical evidence

This paper introduces to the field of marketing a regret-based discrete choice model for the analysis of multi-attribute consumer choices from multinomial choice sets. This random regret minimization (RRM) model, which has recently been introduced in the field of transport, forms a regret-based counterpart of the canonical random utility maximization (RUM) paradigm. This paper assesses empirical results based on 43 comparisons reported in peer-reviewed journal articles and book chapters, with the aim of finding out to what extent, when, and how RRM can form a viable addition to the consumer choice modeler's toolkit. The paper shows that RRM and hybrid RRM-RUM models outperform RUM counterparts in a majority of cases, in terms of model fit and predictive ability. Although differences in performance are quite small, the two paradigms often result in markedly different managerial implications due to considerable differences in, for example, market share forecasts

The dynamics of informal care provision in the Australian household panel survey: Previous work characteristics and future care provision

This study contributes to a small literature on the dynamics of informal care by examining the informal care provision choices of working age Australians. We focus on the impact of previous work characteristics (including work security and flexibility) on subsequent care provision decisions and distinguish between care that is provided to people who cohabit and people who reside elsewhere, as well as between the provision of care as the primary caregiver, or in a secondary caring role. Our dynamic framework of informal care provision accounts for state-dependence, unobserved heterogeneity and initial conditions. For both males and females, we find the existence of positive state-dependence in all care states in both the short- and medium-term. Furthermore, the inertia in care provision appears to be stronger for more intensive care. We also find previous employment status has a significant deterrent effect on current care provision decisions. The effects on employment, however, differ according to the type of previous work, the type of care currently provided, and the gender of the caregiver. We also find that workers with perceptions of greater job security are nevertheless less likely to provide subsequent care. Our results also suggest that workers’ perceptions about work flexibility and their stated overall satisfaction with work actually have no impact on their subsequent decisions to provide care in any capacity

Assessing the importance of car meanings and attitudes in consumer evaluations of electric vehicles

This paper reports findings from a research study which assesses the importance of attitudinal constructs related to general car attitudes and the meanings attached to car ownership over evaluations of electric vehicles (EVs). The data are assessed using principal component analysis to evaluate the structure of the underlying attitudinal constructs. The identified constructs are then entered into a hierarchical regression analysis which uses either positive or negative evaluations of the instrumental capabilities of EVs as the dependent variable. Results show that attitudinal constructs offer additional predictive power over socioeconomic characteristics and that the symbolic and emotive meanings of car ownership are as, if not more, effective in explaining the assessment of EV instrumental capability as compared to issues of cost and environmental concern. Additionally, the more important an individual considers their car to be in their everyday life, the more negative their evaluations are of EVs whilst individuals who claim to be knowledgeable about cars in general and EVs in particular have a lower propensity for negative EV attitudes. However, positive and negative EV attitudes are related to different attitudinal constructs suggesting that it is possible for someone to hold both negative and positive assessments at the same time

New values of time and reliability in passenger transport in The Netherlands

We have established new values of time (VOTs) and values of travel time reliability (VORs) for use in cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of transport projects in The Netherlands. This was the first national study in The Netherlands (and one of the first world-wide) to investigate these topics empirically in a joint framework. Stated preference (SP) questionnaires were designed for interviewing travellers, where the hypothetical alternatives were described in terms of travel time, travel costs and travel time reliability, the latter being presented to the respondents in the form of five possible travel times having equal probability. For passenger transport, we first collected interviews using an existing internet panel. Additional data collection recruitment was done by asking travellers at petrol stations/service areas, parking garages, stations, bus stops, airports and ports to participate in the survey. One important conclusion is that the SP survey using members of this internet panel leads to substantially lower VOTs than the SP survey with en-route recruitment, probably because of self-selection bias in the internet panel. We estimated discrete choice models in which the values of time differ between trips with different time and costs levels, different time and costs changes offered in the SP, and different observed characteristics of the respondents (e.g. education, income, age, household composition). By using a panel latent class model, we also account for unobserved differences between respondents in the value of time and for repeated measurements/panel effects. The reference values of time and the reference reliability ratios were estimated on the 2011 sample only, but the effect of time and cost level, time and cost changes offered and socio-economic attributes was estimated on both the 2009 and 2011 samples