An experimental test of loss aversion and scale compatibility

This paper studies two important reasons why people violate procedure invariance, loss aversion and scale compatibility. The paper extends previous research on loss aversion and scale compatibility by studying loss aversion and scale compatibility simultaneously, by looking at a new decision domain, medical decision analysis, and by examining the effect of loss aversion and scale compatibility on "well-contemplated preferences." We find significant evidence both of loss aversion and scale compatibility. However, the sizes of the biases due to loss aversion and scale compatibility vary over trade-offs and most participants do not behave consistently according to loss aversion or scale compatibility. In particular, the effect of loss aversion in medical trade-offs decreases with duration. These findings are encouraging for utility measurement and prescriptive decision analysis. There appear to exist decision contexts in which the effects of loss aversion and scale compatibility can be minimized and utilities can be measured that do not suffer from these distorting factors.Decision analysis, utility theory, loss aversion, scale compatibility, health

A New Type of Preference Reversal

The classic preference reversal phenomenon arises in a comparison between a choice and a matching task. We present a new type of preference reversal which is entirely choice-based. Because choice is the basic primitive of economics, the preference reversal we observe is more troubling for economics. The preference reversal was observed in two experiments, both involving large representative samples from the Spanish population. The data were collected by professional interviewers in face-to-face interviews. Possible explanations for the preference reversal are the anticipation of disappointment and elation in risky choice and the impact of ethical considerations.Preference reversal, Choice behavior, Stochastic dominance, Disappointment and elation, Health

A new preference reversal in health utility measurement

A central assumption in health utility measurement is that preferences are invariant to the elicitation method that is used. This assumptioin is challenged by preferences reversals. Previous studies have observed prefrence resersals between choise and matching tasks and between choise and ranking tasks. We present a new preference reversal that entirely choise-based. Because choise is the basic primitive of economics and utility theory, this preference reversal is more fundamental and troubling. The preference reversal was observed in two studies regarding health states after stroke. Both studies involved large representative samples from the Spanish population, interwied professionally and face-to-face. Possible explanations for the preference reversal are the anticipation of disappointment and elation is risky choise anda the impact of ethical co0nsiderations about the value of live.Health utility measurement, preference reversal, choice behavior

The Value of Health

Economic evaluations of health care can help to make better medical decisions. Decisions about life and death. Our current methods are wrong. Reality is different from what we did believe. Policy decisions based on our current tools are not at all in the best interests of patients. We, scientists, have the responsibility to bridge the gap between theory and reality. Prospect theory respects reality. Now, we have all the opportunity to reliably value health. And, these values can even be obtained free of charge: we do not have to collect additional data. We can apply prospect theory immediately. What remains is to spread the word

QALYs and HYEs: Under what conditions are they equivalent?

The paper examines what restrictions have to be imposed on the individual's preference structure for QALYs and HYEs to yield identical results. It is shown that using QALYs involves imposing three additional restrictions. Empirical evidence suggests that these restrictions cannot be expected to hold in all applications. The main problem in using HYEs appears to be practical. An alternative index is proposed, that may help to bridge the gap between QALYs and HYEs by combining to some extent the advantages of the two measures

Prospect Theory with Reference Points in the Opportunity Set

Many empirical studies have shown that preferences are reference-dependent, implying loss aversion. Because reference-dependence is a relatively new concept, there exists little theory on it. The theories that are available generally take the reference point as given and then impose the traditional assumptions such as completeness of preferences. Reference-dependence raises, however, new problems that do not occur in reference-independent theories. This paper argues that in the empirically realistic cas

A consistency test of the time trade-off

This paper tests the internal consistency of time trade-off utilities. We find significant violations of consistency in the direction predicted by loss aversion. The violations disappear for higher gauge durations. We show that loss aversion can also explain that for short gauge durations time trade-off utilities exceed standard gamble utilities. Our results suggest that time trade-off measurements that use relatively short gauge durations, like the widely used EuroQol algorithm (Dolan 1997), are affected by loss aversion and lead to utilities that are too high.Cost-Utility Analysis, Time Trade-Off, Loss Aversion

Testing the predective validity of the time trade-off and the Stardard Gamble

This paper tests the consistency of health utility measurements with individual preferences. We compare three methods, the time trade-off, the standard gamble and a version of the standard gamble that corrects for the deviations from expected utility modelled by prospect theory. Individual preferences are measured both through a ranking task and through a choice task. In decisions involving no risk the time trade-off is most consistent with people’s preferences with the standard gamble a close second. In decisions involving risk the corrected standard gamble is most consistent with people’s preferences. Our data do not support the common assumption in health economics that utility is transferable across decision contexts.Health utility measurement, QALYs,stardard gamble, time trade-off, prospect theory.

Resolving inconsistencies in utility measurement under risk: Tests of generalizations of expected utility

This paper explores biases in the elicitation of utilities under risk and the contribution that generalizations of expected utility can make to the resolution of these biases. We used five methods to measure utilities under risk and found clear violations of expected utility. Of the theories studies, prospect theory was most consistent with our data. The main improvement of prospect theory over expected utility was in comparisons between a riskless and a risky prospect(riskless-risk methods). We observed no improvement over expected utility in comparisons between two risky prospects (risk-risk methods). An explanation why we found no improvement of prospect theory over expected utility in risk-risk methods may be that there was less overweighting of small probabilities in our study than has commonly been observed.Utility Measurement, Nonexpected Utility, Prospect Theory, Health., Leex

TRIK PEMBELAJARAN BANGUN DATAR SEGITIGA AGAR TAK TERLIHAT

Pembelajaran matematika di sekolah dasar yang terkesan abstrak dapat dibuat menjadi ses- uatu yang konkrit. Banyak cara yang dapat dilakukan oleh guru sekolah dasar untuk memberikan pemahaman kepada siswa terkait dengan materi pelajaran. Pembelajaran matematika di sekolah dasar merupakan mata pelajaran yang menyenangkan juga ditakuti oleh para siswa yang memiliki kelemahan dalam menghitung angka-angka yang sifatnya abstrak. Salah satu materi dalam pembe- lajaran matematika adalah materi bangun datar. Materi bangun datar yang pertama kali dipelajari di sekolah dasar adalah segitiga. Materi bangun datar segitiga merupakan materi yang menarik karena selain menampilkan bidang datar segitiga dengan berbagai jenis dan ukuran, siswa dapat langsung membedakan jenis segitiga melalui bentuk segitiga yang diamati. Segitiga juga memiliki ukuran yang dinyatakan dengan angka-angka. Angka-angka yang sifatnya abstrak ini akan mem- buat siswa takut dan bahkan tidak tertarik untuk mempelajari bangun datar. Olehnya itu, diper- lukan trik pembelajaran agar pembelajaran matematika materi bangun datar segitiga tidak terlihat abstrak, sehingga siswa tertarik dan memiliki kesan dalam mempelajari matematika. Hal ini akan membuat retensi pemahaman siswa terhadap materi pelajaran dapat bertahan lebih lama. Kata kunci: trik pembelajaran segitiga di S