DOs and DON'Ts for using climate change information for water resource planning and management: guidelines for study design

Water managers are actively incorporating climate change information into their long- and short-term planning processes. This is generally seen as a step in the right direction because it supplements traditional methods, providing new insights that can help in planning for a non-stationary climate. However, the continuous evolution of climate change information can make it challenging to use available information appropriately. Advice on how to use the information is not always straightforward and typically requires extended dialogue between information producers and users, which is not always feasible. To help navigate better the ever-changing climate science landscape, this review is organized as a set of nine guidelines for water managers and planners that highlight better practices for incorporating climate change information into water resource planning and management. Each DOs and DON'Ts recommendation is given with context on why certain strategies are preferable and addresses frequently asked questions by exploring past studies and documents that provide guidance, including real-world examples mainly, though not exclusively, from the United States. This paper is intended to provide a foundation that can expand through continued dialogue within and between the climate science and application communities worldwide, a two-way information sharing that can increase the actionable nature of the information produced and promote greater utility and appropriate use

Coupled biogeochemical cycles : eutrophication and hypoxia in temperate estuaries and coastal marine ecosystems

Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 9 (2011): 18–26, doi:10.1890/100008.Nutrient fluxes to coastal areas have risen in recent decades, leading to widespread hypoxia and other ecological damage, particularly from nitrogen (N). Several factors make N more limiting in estuaries and coastal waters than in lakes: desorption (release) of phosphorus (P) bound to clay as salinity increases, lack of planktonic N fixation in most coastal ecosystems, and flux of relatively P-rich, N-poor waters from coastal oceans into estuaries. During eutrophication, biogeochemical feedbacks further increase the supply of N and P, but decrease availability of silica – conditions that can favor the formation and persistence of harmful algal blooms. Given sufficient N inputs, estuaries and coastal marine ecosystems can be driven to P limitation. This switch contributes to greater far-field N pollution; that is, the N moves further and contributes to eutrophication at greater distances. The physical oceanography (extent of stratification, residence time, and so forth) of coastal systems determines their sensitivity to hypoxia, and recent changes in physics have made some ecosystems more sensitive to hypoxia. Coastal hypoxia contributes to ocean acidification, which harms calcifying organisms such as mollusks and some crustaceans.Funding was supplied in part by NOAA through the Coastal Hypoxia Research Program, by the NSF through the Biocomplexity Coupled Biogeochemical Cycles competition, and by DR Atkinson through an endowment given to Cornell University

Reproductive ecology of interior least tern and piping plover in relation to Platte River hydrology and sandbar dynamics

Historical and contemporary use of large, economically important rivers by threatened and/or endangered species in the United States is a subject of great interest to a wide range of stakeholders. In a recent study of the Platte River in Nebraska, Farnsworth et al. (2017) (hereinafter referred to as “the authors” or “Farnsworth et al.”) used distributions of nest initiation dates taken mostly from human-created, off-channel habitats and a model of emergent sandbar habitat to evaluate the hypothesis that least terns (Sternula antillarum) and piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) are physiologically adapted to initiate nests concurrent with the cessation of spring river flow rises. The authors conclude that (1) these species are not now, nor were they in the past, physiologically adapted to the hydrology of the Platte River, (2) habitats in the Platte River did not, and cannot support reproductive levels sufficient to maintain species subpopulations, (3) the gap in local elevation between peak river stage and typical sandbar height, in combination with the timing of the average spring flood, creates a physical environment which limits opportunities for successful nesting and precludes persistence by either species, and (4) the presence of off-channel habitats, including human-created sand and gravel mines, natural lakes, and a playa wetland, allowed the species to expand into the Platte River basin

Refinement of arsenic attributable health risks in rural Pakistan using population specific dietary intake values

Background: Previous risk assessment studies have often utilised generic consumption or intake values when evaluating ingestion exposure pathways. If these values do not accurately reflect the country or scenario in question, the resulting risk assessment will not provide a meaningful representation of cancer risks in that particular country/scenario. Objectives: This study sought to determine water and food intake parameters for one region in South Asia, rural Pakistan, and assess the role population specific intake parameters play in cancer risk assessment. Methods: A questionnaire was developed to collect data on sociodemographic features and 24-hour water and food consumption patterns from a rural community. The impact of dietary differences on cancer susceptibility linked to arsenic exposure was evaluated by calculating cancer risks using the data collected in the current study against standard water and food intake levels for the USA, Europe and Asia. A probabilistic cancer risk was performed for each set of intake values of this study. Results: Average daily total water intake based on drinking direct plain water and indirect water from food and beverages was found to be 3.5 L day-1 (95% CI: 3.38, 3.57) exceeding the US Environmental Protection Agency’s default (2.5 L day-1) and World Health Organization’s recommended intake value (2 L day-1). Average daily rice intake (469 g day-1) was found to be lower than in India and Bangladesh whereas wheat intake (402 g day−1) was higher than intake reported for USA, Europe and Asian sub-regions. Consequently, arsenic-associated cumulative cancer risks determined for daily water intake was found to be 17 in children of 3-6 years (95% CI: 0.0014, 0.0017), 14 in children of age 6-16 years (95% CI: 0.001, 0.0011) and 6 in adults of 16-67 years (95% CI: 0.0006, 0.0006) in a population size of 10000. This is higher than the risks estimated using the US Environmental Protection Agency and World Health Organization’s default recommended water intake levels. Rice intake data showed early life cumulative cancer risks of 15 in 10000 for children of 3-6 years (95% CI: 0.0012, 0.0015), 14 in children of 6-16 years (95% CI: 0.0011, 0.0014) and later life risk of 8 in adults (95% CI: 0.0008, 0.0008) in a population of 10000. This is lower than cancer risks in countries with higher rice intake and elevated arsenic levels (Bangladesh and India). Cumulative cancer risk from arsenic exposure showed the relative risk contribution from total water to be51%, from rice to be44% and wheat intake 5%. Conclusions: The study demonstrates the need to use population specific dietary information for risk assessment and risk management studies. Probabilistic risk assessment concluded the importance of dietary intake in estimating cancer risk, along with arsenic concentrations in water or food and age of exposed rural population

Identification and Description of the Uncertainty, Variability, Bias and Influence in Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships (QSARs) for Toxicity Prediction

Improving regulatory confidence in, and acceptance of, a prediction of toxicity from a quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) requires assessment of its uncertainty and determination of whether the uncertainty is acceptable. Thus, it is crucial to identify potential uncertainties fundamental to QSAR predictions. Based on expert review, sources of uncertainties, variabilities and biases, as well as areas of influence in QSARs for toxicity prediction were established. These were grouped into three thematic areas: uncertainties, variabilities, potential biases and influences associated with 1) the creation of the QSAR, 2) the description of the QSAR, and 3) the application of the QSAR, also showing barriers for their use. Each thematic area was divided into a total of 13 main areas of concern with 49 assessment criteria covering all aspects of QSAR development, documentation and use. Two case studies were undertaken on different types of QSARs that demonstrated the applicability of the assessment criteria to identify potential weaknesses in the use of a QSAR for a specific purpose such that they may be addressed and mitigation strategies can be proposed, as well as enabling an informed decision on the adequacy of the model in the considered context

Scientific Opinion on the safety and efficacy of iron compounds (E1) as feed additives for all species: Ferrous sulphate monohydrate based on a dossier submitted by Kronos International, Inc.

Ferrous sulphate monohydrate is safe when supplied up to a maximum iron content per kilogram complete feedingstuff of 450 mg for bovines and poultry, 500 mg for ovines, 600 mg for pets, and 750 mg for other species/categories, except horses and fish; for piglets up to one week before weaning a maximum of 250 mg Fe/day is considered safe. Because of insufficient data on horses and fish, as a provisional measure, the current value (750 mg Fe/kg) could be maintained. The values for total dietary iron for pigs, ovines, horses, fish and other species/categories (except poultry, bovines and pets) are in line with those currently authorised. Iron from ferrous sulphate monohydrate is unlikely to modify the iron concentration in edible tissues and products of animal origin. Consumer exposure in the EU is not associated with a risk of excess iron intake to the general population. Therefore, the FEEDAP Panel does not foresee any concern for consumer safety resulting from the use of ferrous sulphate monohydrate in animal nutrition, provided that the maximum iron content in complete feedingstuffs is respected. Ferrous sulphate monohydrate is irritant and corrosive to the skin, eyes and respiratory tract. The additive contains up to 109 mg Ni/kg. Nickel is a dermal and respiratory sensitiser, and inhalation may cause lung cancer. Thus, handling the additive poses a risk to the user/worker. Considering the high concentration of iron and sulphur in soil and water, the supplementation of feed with the additive is not expected to pose an environmental risk. Ferrous sulphate monohydrate is an effective iron source for all animal species and categories. The FEEDAP Panel recommends that the currently authorised maximum iron content in complete feed be reduced for bovines and poultry from 750 to 450 mg Fe/kg, and for pets from 1250 to 600 mg Fe/kg

Linear low-dose extrapolation for noncancer health effects is the exception, not the rule

The nature of the exposure-response relationship has a profound influence on risk analyses. Several arguments have been proffered as to why all exposure-response relationships for both cancer and noncarcinogenic end-points should be assumed to be linear at low doses. We focused on three arguments that have been put forth for noncarcinogens. First, the general “additivity-to-background” argument proposes that if an agent enhances an already existing disease-causing process, then even small exposures increase disease incidence in a linear manner. This only holds if it is related to a specific mode of action that has nonuniversal properties—properties that would not be expected for most noncancer effects. Second, the “heterogeneity in the population” argument states that variations in sensitivity among members ofthe target population tend to “flatten out and linearize” the exposure-response curve, but this actually only tends to broaden, not linearize, the dose-response relationship. Third, it has been argued that a review of epidemiological evidence shows linear or no-threshold effects at low exposures in humans, despite nonlinear exposure-response in the experimental dose range in animal testing for similar endpoints. It is more likely that this is attributable to exposure measurement error rather than a true non-threshold association. Assuming that every chemical is toxic at high exposures and linear at low exposures does not comport to modern-day scientific knowledge of biology. There is no compelling evidence-based justification for a general low-exposure linearity; rather, case-specific mechanistic arguments are needed