The New Theory of Strategic Voting

This is an analysis of strategic voting under qualified majority voting. Existing formal analyses of the plurality rule predict complete coordination of strategic voting: a strict interpretation of Duverger's Law. This conclusion is rejected. Unlike previous models, the popular support for each option is not commonly certain. Agents base their vote on both public and private signals of popular support. When private signals are the main source of information, the uniquely stable equilibrium entails only limited strategic voting and hence partial coordination. This is due to the surprising presence of negative feedback --- strategic voting is a self-attenuating phenomenon. The theory leads to the conclusion that multi-candidate support in a plurality electoral system is perfectly consistent with rational voting behaviour.

Dynamic government performance: honeymoons and crises of confidence

We use a formal theoretical framework to explore the interplay between a government's longevity and its performance. Ministers perform well when their careers are valuable; this is so when the government's duration is expected to be long; the government's survival depends on its popularity; and, finally, that popularity depends on its ministers performance. The feedback loop between performance and longevity means that multiple rational-expectations equilibria can arise: Ministers work hard for a popular government, but divert efforts elsewhere if they believe the government is doomed; these alternatives are both self-fulfilling prophecies. However, the presence of (perhaps small) random events that buffet the performance and popularity of a government is sufficient to pin down a unique equilibrium. We explore the dynamics that arise: A crisis of confidence involving the rapid collapse of a government's performance is sparked when a sequence of negative shocks push the popularity of the government below a unique critical threshold

Inflation in Australia: Causes, Inertia and Policy

This paper examines the determination of inflation in Australia and its four major trading partners – Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. Also examined is the degree of inertia in the inflation rate i.e. the extent to which observed inflation deviates from its equilibrium rate. We find that, in each country, nominal wage growth clearly dominates the growth rate of money as the fundamental cause of inflation. We also detect the presence of substantial inflation inertia. For Australia, these findings have two implications for policy. The first is that a policy to reduce the inflation will have the desired effect only after the elapse of a considerable period of time. The second is that such a policy can succeed only if aggregate nominal wage growth is reduced commensurately.

From surround to true 3-D

To progress from surround sound to true 3-D requires an updating of the psychoacoustical theories which underlie current technologies. This paper shows how J.J.Gibson’s ecological approach to perception can be applied to audio perception and used to derive 3-D audio technologies based on intelligent pattern recognition and active hypothesis testing. These technologies are suggested as methods which can be used to generate audio environments that are believable and can be explored

3D audio as an information-environment: manipulating perceptual significance for differntiation and pre-selection

Contemporary use of sound as artificial information display is rudimentary, with little 'depth of significance' to facilitate users' selective attention. We believe that this is due to conceptual neglect of 'context' or perceptual background information. This paper describes a systematic approach to developing 3D audio information environments that utilise known cognitive characteristics, in order to promote rapidity and ease of use. The key concepts are perceptual space, perceptual significance, ambience labelling information and cartoonification

Leading the Party:Coordination, Direction, and Communication

Party activists face a coordination problem: a critical mass (a barrier tocoordination) must advocate a single policy alternative if the party is tosucceed. The need for direction is the degree to which the merits of thealternatives respond to the underlying mood of the party. An individual'sability to assess the mood is his sense of direction. These factors combine toform an index of both the desirability and the feasibility of leadership: wecall this index Michels' Ratio. A sovereign party conference gives way toleadership by an individual or oligarchy if and only if Michels' Ratio issufficiently high. Leadership enhances the clarity of intra-partycommunication, but weakens the response of policy choices to the party'smood.

The Qualities of Leadership:Direction, Communication, and Obfuscation

Party activists wish to (i) advocate the best policy and yet (ii) unify behind a commonparty line. An activist's understanding of his environment is based on the speeches ofparty leaders. A leader's influence, measured by the weight placed on her speech,increases with her judgement on policy (sense of direction) and her ability to conveyideas (clarity of communication). A leader with perfect clarity of communication enjoysgreater influence than one with a perfect sense of direction. Activists can choose howmuch attention to pay to leaders. A necessary condition for a leader to monopolize theagenda is that she is the most coherent communicator. Sometimes leaders attract moreattention by obfuscating their messages. A concern for party unity mitigates thisincentive; when activists emphasize following the party line, they learn more about theirenvironment.

Industrial placements for undergraduate students – challenges and opportunities

Industrial placements, as part of a ‘sandwich degree’, have been commonplace in the UK for over thirty years. The European Union has been active in the field of trans-national industrial placements for over ten years, and is now beginning to integrate its student placement programme with other parts of its ‘lifelong learning’ strategy. It now seems timely to reflect on the challenges and benefits of an industrial placement process, and to make recommendations for best practice going forward. Specifically, the paper will: • Identify the main stakeholders of Industrial Placements. • Consider the current processes that are in place in the UK for industrial placements. • Reflect on the processes that are in place in Europe and how they differ from the UK. • Evaluate the issues faced by the main three stakeholders; students, universities, and businesses. • Use Gap Analysis techniques to identify where the UK process needs definite improvement.gap analysis, industrial placement.