“An ethnographic seduction”: how qualitative research and Agent-based models can benefit each other

We provide a general analytical framework for empirically informed agent-based simulations. This methodology provides present-day agent-based models with a sound and proper insight as to the behavior of social agents — an insight that statistical data often fall short of providing at least at a micro level and for hidden and sensitive populations. In the other direction, simulations can provide qualitative researchers in sociology, anthropology and other fields with valuable tools for: (a) testing the consistency and pushing the boundaries, of specific theoretical frameworks; (b) replicating and generalizing results; (c) providing a platform for cross-disciplinary validation of results

The microfoundations of territorial disputes: Evidence from a survey experiment in Japan

Although territorial disputes are one of the most fraught issues among states, how public opinion on territorial disputes varies within states and what explains the variation are often overlooked. This paper argues that citizens who prioritize economic considerations are more likely to support compromises over such disputes, while those who prioritize a country’s reputation tend to reject any compromise. Further, the paper hypothesizes that such variation in individual preferences can be explained by proximity to disputed territories. Counterintuitively, residents closer to disputes are more likely to support a compromise than those who live further away, because they are more affected by economic considerations. Those far from the disputed territory can afford to focus on its political aspects, which leads to a more hawkish stance. By using an experimental approach within Japan, this paper examines the validity of the spatial argument, and tests the relative salience of economic and political aspects of territorial disputes. The findings, based on original survey data, show that distance from disputed territories shapes individual preferences, and under some conditions, people living further away from disputed territories are more hawkish

An Experimental Investigation of Colonel Blotto Games

"This article examines behavior in the two-player, constant-sum Colonel Blotto game with asymmetric resources in which players maximize the expected number of battlefields won. The experimental results support all major theoretical predictions. In the auction treatment, where winning a battlefield is deterministic, disadvantaged players use a 'guerilla warfare' strategy which stochastically allocates zero resources to a subset of battlefields. Advantaged players employ a 'stochastic complete coverage' strategy, allocating random, but positive, resource levels across the battlefields. In the lottery treatment, where winning a battlefield is probabilistic, both players divide their resources equally across all battlefields." (author's abstract)"Dieser Artikel untersucht das Verhalten von Individuen in einem 'constant-sum Colonel Blotto'-Spiel zwischen zwei Spielern, bei dem die Spieler mit unterschiedlichen Ressourcen ausgestattet sind und die erwartete Anzahl gewonnener Schlachtfelder maximieren. Die experimentellen Ergebnisse bestätigen alle wichtigen theoretischen Vorhersagen. Im Durchgang, in dem wie in einer Auktion der Sieg in einem Schlachtfeld deterministisch ist, wenden die Spieler, die sich im Nachteil befinden, eine 'Guerillataktik' an, und verteilen ihre Ressourcen stochastisch auf eine Teilmenge der Schlachtfelder. Spieler mit einem Vorteil verwenden eine Strategie der 'stochastischen vollständigen Abdeckung', indem sie zufällig eine positive Ressourcenmenge auf allen Schlachtfeldern positionieren. Im Durchgang, in dem sich der Gewinn eines Schlachtfeldes probabilistisch wie in einer Lotterie bestimmt, teilen beide Spieler ihre Ressourcen gleichmäßig auf alle Schlachtfelder auf." (Autorenreferat

Heterogeneous out-of-equilibrium nonlinear q-voter model with zealotry

We study the dynamics of the out-of-equilibrium nonlinear q-voter model with two types of susceptible voters and zealots, introduced in [EPL 113, 48001 (2016)]. In this model, each individual supports one of two parties and is either a susceptible voter of type q1 or q2, or is an inflexible zealot. At each time step, a qi-susceptible voter (i = 1, 2) consults a group of qi neighbors and adopts their opinion if all group members agree, while zealots are inflexible and never change their opinion. This model violates detailed balance whenever q1 6= q2 and is characterized by two distinct regimes of low and high density of zealotry. Here, by combining analytical and numerical methods, we investigate the non-equilibrium stationary state of the system in terms of its probability distribution, non-vanishing currents and unequal-time two-point correlation functions. We also study the switching times properties of the model by exploiting an approximate mapping onto the model of [Phys. Rev. E 92, 012803 (2015)] that satisfies the detailed balance, and we outline some properties of the model near criticality

Spatial interactions in agent-based modeling

Agent Based Modeling (ABM) has become a widespread approach to model complex interactions. In this chapter after briefly summarizing some features of ABM the different approaches in modeling spatial interactions are discussed. It is stressed that agents can interact either indirectly through a shared environment and/or directly with each other. In such an approach, higher-order variables such as commodity prices, population dynamics or even institutions, are not exogenously specified but instead are seen as the results of interactions. It is highlighted in the chapter that the understanding of patterns emerging from such spatial interaction between agents is a key problem as much as their description through analytical or simulation means. The chapter reviews different approaches for modeling agents' behavior, taking into account either explicit spatial (lattice based) structures or networks. Some emphasis is placed on recent ABM as applied to the description of the dynamics of the geographical distribution of economic activities, - out of equilibrium. The Eurace@Unibi Model, an agent-based macroeconomic model with spatial structure, is used to illustrate the potential of such an approach for spatial policy analysis.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figures, 105 references; a chapter prepared for the book "Complexity and Geographical Economics - Topics and Tools", P. Commendatore, S.S. Kayam and I. Kubin, Eds. (Springer, in press, 2014

The evolution of the urinary bladder as a storage organ: scent trails and selective pressure of the first land animals in a computational simulation

The function of waste control in all living organisms is one of the vital importance. Almost universally, terrestrial tetrapods have a urinary bladder with a storage function. It is well documented that many marine and aerial species do not have an organ of such a function, or have one with very depressed storage functionality. Bladder morphology indicates it has evolved from a thin-walled structure used for osmoregulatory purposes, as it is currently used in many marine animals. It is hypothesised that the storage function of the urinary bladder allows for an evolutionary selective advantage in reducing the likelihood of successful predation. Random walks simulating predator and prey movements with simplified scent trails were utilised to represent various stages of the hunt: Detection and pursuit. A final evolutionary model is proposed in order to display the advantages over inter-generational time scales and illustrates how a bladder may evolve from an osmoregulatory organ to one of the storage. Data sets were generated for each case and analysed indicating the viability of such advantages. From the highly consistent results, three distinct characteristics of having a storage function in the urinary bladder are suggested: reduced scent trail detection rate; increased prey–predator separation (upon scent trail detection); and a reduced probability of successful capture upon scent detection by the predator. Furthered by the evolutionary model indicating such characteristics are conserved and augmented over many generations, it is concluded that prey–predator interactions provide a large selective pressure in the evolution of the urinary bladder and its storage function

Community projects: an experimental analysis of a fair implementation process

We define and experimentally test a public provision mechanism that meets three basic ethical requirements and allows community members to influence, via monetary bids, which of several projects is implemented. For each project, participants are assigned personal values, which can be positive or negative. We provide either public or private information about personal values. This produces two distinct public provision games, which are experimentally implemented and analyzed for various projects. In spite of the complex experimental task, participants do not rely on bidding their own personal values as an obvious simple heuristic whose general acceptance would result in fair and efficient outcomes. Rather, they rely on strategic underbidding. Although underbidding is affected by projects’ characteristics, the provision mechanism mostly leads to the implementation of the most efficient project

A qualitative stakeholder analysis of avian influenza policy in Bangladesh

Avian influenza is a major animal and public health concern in Bangladesh. A decade after development and implementation of the first national avian influenza and human pandemic influenza preparedness and response plan in Bangladesh, a two-stage qualitative stakeholder analysis was performed in relation to the policy development process and the actual policy. This study specifically aimed to identify the future policy options to prevent and control avian influenza and other poultry-related zoonotic diseases in Bangladesh. It was recommended that the policy should be based on the One Health concept, be evidence-based, sustainable, reviewed and updated as necessary. The future policy environment that is suitable for developing and implementing these policies should take into account the following points: the need to formally engage multiple sectors, the need for clear and acceptable leadership, roles and responsibilities, and the need for a common pool of resources and provision for transferring resources. Most of these recommendations are directed towards the Government of Bangladesh. However, other sectors, including research and poultry production stakeholders, also have a major role to play to inform policy-making and actively participate in the multi-sectoral approach