Atmospheric abundance and global emissions of perfluorocarbons CF4, C2F6 and C3F8 since 1800 inferred from ice core, firn, air archive and in situ measurements

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) are very potent and long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, released predominantly during aluminium production and semiconductor manufacture. They have been targeted for emission controls under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Here we present the first continuous records of the atmospheric abundance of CF4 (PFC-14), C2F6 (PFC-116) and C3F8 (PFC-218) from 1800 to 2014. The records are derived from high-precision measurements of PFCs in air extracted from polar firn or ice at six sites (DE08, DE08-2, DSSW20K, EDML, NEEM and South Pole) and air archive tanks and atmospheric air sampled from both hemispheres. We take account of the age characteristics of the firn and ice core air samples and demonstrate excellent consistency between the ice core, firn and atmospheric measurements. We present an inversion for global emissions from 1900 to 2014. We also formulate the inversion to directly infer emission factors for PFC emissions due to aluminium production prior to the 1980s. We show that 19th century atmospheric levels, before significant anthropogenic influence, were stable at 34.1 ± 0.3 ppt for CF4 and below detection limits of 0.002 and 0.01 ppt for C2F6 and C3F8, respectively. We find a significant peak in CF4 and C2F6 emissions around 1940, most likely due to the high demand for aluminium during World War II, for example for construction of aircraft, but these emissions were nevertheless much lower than in recent years. The PFC emission factors for aluminium production in the early 20th century were significantly higher than today but have decreased since then due to improvements and better control of the smelting process. Mitigation efforts have led to decreases in emissions from peaks in 1980 (CF4) or early-to-mid-2000s (C2F6 and C3F8) despite the continued increase in global aluminium production; however, these decreases in emissions appear to have recently halted. We see a temporary reduction of around 15 % in CF4 emissions in 2009, presumably associated with the impact of the global financial crisis on aluminium and semiconductor production

Atmospheric histories and emissions of chlorofluorocarbons CFC-13 (CClF3), ΣCFC-114 (C2Cl2F4), and CFC-115 (C2ClF5)

Based on observations of the chlorofluorocarbons CFC-13 (chlorotrifluoromethane), ΣCFC-114 (combined measurement of both isomers of dichlorotetrafluoroethane), and CFC-115 (chloropentafluoroethane) in atmospheric and firn samples, we reconstruct records of their tropospheric histories spanning nearly 8 decades. These compounds were measured in polar firn air samples, in ambient air archived in canisters, and in situ at the AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) network and affiliated sites. Global emissions to the atmosphere are derived from these observations using an inversion based on a 12-box atmospheric transport model. For CFC-13, we provide the first comprehensive global analysis. This compound increased monotonically from its first appearance in the atmosphere in the late 1950s to a mean global abundance of 3.18 ppt (dry-air mole fraction in parts per trillion, pmol mol1) in 2016. Its growth rate has decreased since the mid-1980s but has remained at a surprisingly high mean level of 0.02 ppt yr⁻¹ since 2000, resulting in a continuing growth of CFC-13 in the atmosphere. ΣCFC-114 increased from its appearance in the 1950s to a maximum of 16.6 ppt in the early 2000s and has since slightly declined to 16.3 ppt in 2016. CFC-115 increased monotonically from its first appearance in the 1960s and reached a global mean mole fraction of 8.49 ppt in 2016. Growth rates of all three compounds over the past years are significantly larger than would be expected from zero emissions. Under the assumption of unchanging lifetimes and atmospheric transport patterns, we derive global emissions from our measurements, which have remained unexpectedly high in recent years: mean yearly emissions for the last decade (2007–2016) of CFC-13 are at 0.48 ± 0.15 kt yr⁻¹ (> 15 % of past peak emissions), of ΣCFC-114 at 1.90 ± 0.84 kt yr⁻¹ (∼ 10 % of peak emissions), and of CFC-115 at 0.80 ± 0.50 kt yr⁻¹(> 5 % of peak emissions). Mean yearly emissions of CFC-115 for 2015–2016 are 1.14 ± 0.50 kt yr⁻¹ and have doubled compared to the 2007–2010 minimum. We find CFC-13 emissions from aluminum smelters but if extrapolated to global emissions, they cannot account for the lingering global emissions determined from the atmospheric observations. We find impurities of CFC-115 in the refrigerant HFC-125 (CHF₂CF₃) but if extrapolated to global emissions, they can neither account for the lingering global CFC-115 emissions determined from the atmospheric observations nor for their recent increases. We also conduct regional inversions for the years 2012–2016 for the northeastern Asian area using observations from the Korean AGAGE site at Gosan and find significant emissions for ΣCFC-114 and CFC-115, suggesting that a large fraction of their global emissions currently occur in northeastern Asia and more specifically on the Chinese mainland

Perfluorocyclobutane (PFC-318, <i>c</i>-C<sub>4</sub>F<sub>8</sub>) in the global atmosphere

We reconstruct atmospheric abundances of the potent greenhouse gas span classCombining double low line inline-formula span classCombining double low line inline-formula perfluorocyclobutane, perfluorocarbon PFC-318) from measurements of in situ, archived, firn, and aircraft air samples with precisions of span classCombining double low line inline-formula reported on the SIO-14 gravimetric calibration scale. Combined with inverse methods, we found near-zero atmospheric abundances from the early 1900s to the early 1960s, after which they rose sharply, reaching 1.66ppt (parts per trillion dry-air mole fraction) in 2017. Global span classCombining double low line inline-formula span classCombining double low line inline-formula emissions rose from near zero in the 1960s to span classCombining double low line inline-formula (1span classCombining double low line inline-formula gyrspan classCombining double low line inline-formula in the late 1970s to late 1980s, then declined to span classCombining double low line inline-formula classCombining double low line inline-formula in the mid-1990s to early 2000s, followed by a rise since the early 2000s to span classCombining double low line inline-formula 2.20±0.05 Ggyrspan classCombining double low line inline-formula in 2017. These emissions are significantly larger than inventory-based emission estimates. Estimated emissions from eastern Asia rose from 0.36Ggyrspan classCombining double low line inline-formula in 2010 to 0.73Ggyrspan classCombining double low line inline-formula in 2016 and 2017, 31% of global emissions, mostly from eastern China. We estimate emissions of 0.14Ggyrspan classCombining double low line inline-formula from northern and central India in 2016 and find evidence for significant emissions from Russia. In contrast, recent emissions from northwestern Europe and Australia are estimated to be small (span classCombining double low line inline-formula % each). We suggest that emissions from China, India, andspan idCombining double low line page10336 Russia are likely related to production of polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE, Teflon ) and other fluoropolymers and fluorochemicals that are based on the pyrolysis of hydrochlorofluorocarbon HCFC-22 (span classCombining double low line inline-formula) in which span classCombining double low line inline-formula classCombining double low line inline-formula is a known by-product. The semiconductor sector, where span classCombining double low line inline-formula span classCombining double low line inline-formula is used, is estimated to be a small source, at least in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Europe. Without an obvious correlation with population density, incineration of waste-containing fluoropolymers is probably a minor source, and we find no evidence of emissions from electrolytic production of aluminum in Australia. While many possible emissive uses of span classCombining double low line inline-formula span classCombining double low line inline-formula are known and though we cannot categorically exclude unknown sources, the start of significant emissions may well be related to the advent of commercial PTFE production in 1947. Process controls or abatement to reduce the span classCombining double low line inline-formula span classCombining double low line inline-formula by-product were probably not in place in the early decades, explaining the increase in emissions in the 1960s and 1970s. With the advent of by-product reporting requirements to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in the 1990s, concern about climate change and product stewardship, abatement, and perhaps the collection of span classCombining double low line inline-formula span classCombining double low line inline-formula by-product for use in the semiconductor industry where it can be easily abated, it is conceivable that emissions in developed countries were stabilized and then reduced, explaining the observed emission reduction in the 1980s and 1990s. Concurrently, production of PTFE in China began to increase rapidly. Without emission reduction requirements, it is plausible that global emissions today are dominated by China and other developing countries. We predict that span classCombining double low line inline-formula span classCombining double low line inline-formula emissions will continue to rise and that span classCombining double low line inline-formula span classCombining double low line inline-formula will become the second most important emitted PFC in terms of span classCombining double low line inline-formula equivalent emissions within a year or two. The 2017 radiative forcing of span classCombining double low line inline-formula span classCombining double low line inline-formula 0.52mWmspan classCombining double low line inline-formula) is small but emissions of span classCombining double low line inline-formula span classCombining double low line inline-formula and other PFCs, due to their very long atmospheric lifetimes, essentially permanently alter Earth's radiative budget and should be reduced. Significant emissions inferred outside of the investigated regions clearly show that observational capabilities and reporting requirements need to be improved to understand global and country-scale emissions of PFCs and other synthetic greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances.United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NNX07AE89G)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NNX07AF09G)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NNX07AE87G)Great Britain. Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (Grant 1028/06/2015)United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Grant RA-133-R15-CN-0008)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41575114)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant ARC-1203779)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant ARC-1204084)Natural Environment Research Council (Great Britain) (Grant NE/I027282/1

Gas isotope thermometry in the South Pole and Dome Fuji ice cores provides evidence for seasonal rectification of ice core gas records

Abstract. Gas isotope thermometry using the isotopes of molecular nitrogen and argon has been used extensively to reconstruct past surface temperature change from Greenland ice cores. The gas isotope ratios δ15N and δ40Ar in the ice core are each set by the amount of gravitational and thermal fractionation in the firn. The gravitational component of fractionation is proportional to the firn thickness, and the thermal component is proportional to the temperature difference between the top and bottom of the firn column, which can be related to surface temperature change. Compared to Greenland, Antarctic climate change is typically more gradual and smaller in magnitude, which results in smaller thermal fractionation signals that are harder to detect. This has hampered application of gas isotope thermometry to Antarctic ice cores. Here, we present an analytical method for measuring δ15N and δ40Ar with a precision of 0.002 ‰ per atomic mass unit, a two-fold improvement on previous work. This allows us to reconstruct changes in firn thickness and temperature difference at the South Pole between 30 and 5 kyr BP. We find that variability in firn thickness is controlled in part by changes in snow accumulation rate, which is, in turn, influenced strongly by the along-flowline topography upstream of the ice core site. Variability in our firn temperature difference record cannot be explained by annual-mean processes. We therefore propose that the ice core gas isotopes contain a seasonal bias due to rectification of seasonal signals in the upper firn. The strength of the rectification also appears to be linked to fluctuations in the upstream topography. As further evidence for the existence of rectification, we present new data from the Dome Fuji ice core that are also consistent with a seasonal bias throughout the Holocene. Our findings have important implications for the interpretation of ice core gas records. For example, we show that the effects of upstream topography on ice core records can be significant at flank sites like the South Pole – they are responsible for some of the largest signals in our record. Presumably upstream signals impact other flank-flow ice cores such as EDML, Vostok, and EGRIP similarly. Additionally, future work is required to confirm the existence of seasonal rectification in polar firn, to determine how spatially and temporally widespread rectifier effects are, and to incorporate the relevant physics into firn air models

The REFLEX project: Comparing different algorithms and implementations for the inversion of a terrestrial ecosystem model against eddy covariance data

We describe a model-data fusion (MDF) inter-comparison project (REFLEX), which compared various algorithms for estimating carbon (C) model parameters consistent with both measured carbon fluxes and states and a simple C model. Participants were provided with the model and with both synthetic net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 and leaf area index (LAI) data, generated from the model with added noise, and observed NEE and LAI data from two eddy covariance sites. Participants endeavoured to estimate model parameters and states consistent with the model for all cases over the two years for which data were provided, and generate predictions for one additional year without observations. Nine participants contributed results using Metropolis algorithms, Kalman filters and a genetic algorithm. For the synthetic data case, parameter estimates compared well with the true values. The results of the analyses indicated that parameters linked directly to gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration, such as those related to foliage allocation and turnover, or temperature sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration, were best constrained and characterised. Poorly estimated parameters were those related to the allocation to and turnover of fine root/wood pools. Estimates of confidence intervals varied among algorithms, but several algorithms successfully located the true values of annual fluxes from synthetic experiments within relatively narrow 90% confidence intervals, achieving >80% success rate and mean NEE confidence intervals <110 gC m−2 year−1 for the synthetic case. Annual C flux estimates generated by participants generally agreed with gap-filling approaches using half-hourly data. The estimation of ecosystem respiration and GPP through MDF agreed well with outputs from partitioning studies using half-hourly data. Confidence limits on annual NEE increased by an average of 88% in the prediction year compared to the previous year, when data were available. Confidence intervals on annual NEE increased by 30% when observed data were used instead of synthetic data, reflecting and quantifying the addition of model error. Finally, our analyses indicated that incorporating additional constraints, using data on C pools (wood, soil and fine roots) would help to reduce uncertainties for model parameters poorly served by eddy covariance data

Re-evaluating the 1940s CO₂ plateau

International audienceThe high-resolution CO 2 record from Law Dome ice core reveals that atmospheric CO 2 concentration stalled during the 1940s (so-called CO 2 plateau). Since the fossil-fuel emissions did not decrease during the period, this stalling implies the persistence of a strong sink, perhaps sustained for as long as a decade or more. Double-deconvolution analyses have attributed this sink to the ocean, conceivably as a response to the very strong El Niño event in 1940-1942. However, this explanation is questionable, as recent ocean CO 2 data indicate that the range of variability in the ocean sink has been rather modest in recent decades, and El Niño events have generally led to higher growth rates of atmospheric CO 2 due to the offsetting terrestrial response. Here, we use the most up-to-date information on the different terms of the carbon budget: fossil-fuel emissions, four estimates of land-use change (LUC) emissions, ocean uptake from two different reconstructions, and the terrestrial sink modelled by the TRENDY project to identify the most likely causes of the 1940s plateau. We find that they greatly overestimate atmospheric CO 2 growth rate during the plateau period , as well as in the 1960s, in spite of giving a plausible explanation for most of the 20th century carbon budget, especially from 1970 onwards. The mismatch between reconstructions and observations during the CO 2 plateau epoch of 1940-1950 ranges between 0.9 and 2.0 Pg C yr −1 , depending on the LUC dataset considered. This mismatch may be explained by (i) decadal variability in the ocean carbon sink not accounted for in the reconstructions we used, (ii) a further terrestrial sink currently missing in the estimates by land-surface models, or (iii) LUC processes not included in the current datasets. Ocean carbon models from CMIP5 indicate that natural variability in the ocean carbon sink could explain an additional 0.5 Pg C yr −1 uptake, but it is unlikely to be higher. The impact of the 1940-1942 El Niño on the observed stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 cannot be confirmed nor discarded, as TRENDY models do not reproduce the expected concurrent strong decrease in terrestrial uptake. Nevertheless, this would further increase the mis-match between observed and modelled CO 2 growth rate during the CO 2 plateau epoch. Tests performed using the OS-CAR (v2.2) model indicate that changes in land use not correctly accounted for during the period (coinciding with drastic socioeconomic changes during the Second World War) could contribute to the additional sink required. Thus, the previously proposed ocean hypothesis for the 1940s plateau cannot be confirmed by independent data. Further efforts are required to reduce uncertainty in the different terms of the carbon budget during the first half of the 20th century and to better understand the long-term variability of the ocean and terrestrial CO 2 sinks. Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 4878 A. Bastos et al.: Re-evaluating the 1940s CO 2 plateau Figure 1. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration in the Law Dome ice core and firn record from Rubino et al. (2013) and respective uncertainties (markers and whiskers) as well as the spline fit applied to the data following Enting et al. (2006), which attenuates by 50 % variations of ca. 23 years. The period corresponding to the plateau is highlighted between vertical grey lines. The blue markers correspond to samples from Law Dome and red markers from South Pole; different symbols indicate the different ice cores (big markers) and firn samples (dots)

Higher than expected CO2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations

Several lines of evidence point to an increase in the activity of the terrestrial biosphere over recent decades, impacting the global net land carbon sink (NLS) and its control on the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide (ca). Global terrestrial gross primary production (GPP)—the rate of carbon fixation by photosynthesis—is estimated to have risen by (31 ± 5)% since 1900, but the relative contributions of different putative drivers to this increase are not well known. Here we identify the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration as the dominant driver. We reconcile leaf-level and global atmospheric constraints on trends in modeled biospheric activity to reveal a global CO2 fertilization effect on photosynthesis of 30% since 1900, or 47% for a doubling of ca above the pre-industrial level. Our historic value is nearly twice as high as current estimates (17 ± 4)% that do not use the full range of available constraints. Consequently, under a future low-emission scenario, we project a land carbon sink (174 PgC, 2006–2099) that is 57 PgC larger than if a lower CO2 fertilization effect comparable with current estimates is assumed. These findings suggest a larger beneficial role of the land carbon sink in modulating future excess anthropogenic CO2 consistent with the target of the Paris Agreement to stay below 2°C warming, and underscore the importance of preserving terrestrial carbon sinks

Compiled Historical Record of Atmospheric delta13CO2 version 1.1

MIP6 Forcing Datasets (input4MIPs): The forcing datasets (and boundary conditions) needed for CMIP6 experiments are being prepared by a number of different experts. Initially many of these datasets may only be available from those experts, but over time as part of the 'input4MIPs' activity most of them will be archived by PCMDI and served by the Earth System Grid Federation (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/ ). More information is available in the living document: http://goo.gl/r8up3

Compiled Historical Record of Atmospheric Delta14CO2 version 2.0

CMIP6 Forcing Datasets (input4MIPs): The forcing datasets (and boundary conditions) needed for CMIP6 experiments are being prepared by a number of different experts. Initially many of these datasets may only be available from those experts, but over time as part of the 'input4MIPs' activity most of them will be archived by PCMDI and served by the Earth System Grid Federation (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/ ). More information is available in the living document: http://goo.gl/r8up3