A practical conservation tool to combine diverse types of evidence for transparent evidence-based decision-making

Funder: Arcadia Fund; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100012088Funder: MAVA Foundation; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100013324Funder: The David and Claudia Harding FoundationFunder: University of Cambridge, Department of Zoology; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000735Making the reasoning and evidence behind conservation management decisions clear and transparent is a key challenge for the conservation community. Similarly, combining evidence from diverse sources (e.g., scientific and local knowledge) into decision-making is also difficult. Our group of conservation researchers and practitioners has co-produced an intuitive tool and template (Evidence-to-Decision [E2D] tool: www.evidence2decisiontool.com) to guide practitioners through a structured process to transparently document and report the evidence and reasoning behind decisions. The tool has three major steps: (1). Define the Decision Context; (2). Gather Evidence; and (3). Make an Evidence-Based Decision. In each step, practitioners enter information (e.g., from the scientific literature, practitioner knowledge and experience, and costs) to inform their decision-making and document their reasoning. The tool packages this information into a customized downloadable report (or is documented if using the offline template), which we hope can stimulate the exchange of information on decisions within and between organizations. By enabling practitioners to revisit how and why past decisions were made, and integrate diverse forms of evidence, we believe our open-access tool's template can help increase the transparency and quality of decision-making in conservation.William J. Sutherland and Harriet Downey were supported by Arcadia, The David and Claudia Harding Foundation, and MAVA. Alec P. Christie was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council as part of the Cambridge Earth System Science NERC DTP (NE/L002507/1) and The David and Claudia Harding Foundation. Thomas B. White was supported by the Balfour Studentship awarded by the Department of Zoology, Cambridge University

Fitting the integrated Spectral Energy Distributions of Galaxies

Fitting the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of galaxies is an almost universally used technique that has matured significantly in the last decade. Model predictions and fitting procedures have improved significantly over this time, attempting to keep up with the vastly increased volume and quality of available data. We review here the field of SED fitting, describing the modelling of ultraviolet to infrared galaxy SEDs, the creation of multiwavelength data sets, and the methods used to fit model SEDs to observed galaxy data sets. We touch upon the achievements and challenges in the major ingredients of SED fitting, with a special emphasis on describing the interplay between the quality of the available data, the quality of the available models, and the best fitting technique to use in order to obtain a realistic measurement as well as realistic uncertainties. We conclude that SED fitting can be used effectively to derive a range of physical properties of galaxies, such as redshift, stellar masses, star formation rates, dust masses, and metallicities, with care taken not to over-interpret the available data. Yet there still exist many issues such as estimating the age of the oldest stars in a galaxy, finer details ofdust properties and dust-star geometry, and the influences of poorly understood, luminous stellar types and phases. The challenge for the coming years will be to improve both the models and the observational data sets to resolve these uncertainties. The present review will be made available on an interactive, moderated web page (sedfitting.org), where the community can access and change the text. The intention is to expand the text and keep it up to date over the coming years.Comment: 54 pages, 26 figures, Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Scienc

Food Use and Health Effects of Soybean and Sunflower Oils

This review provides a scientific assessment of current knowledge of health effects of soybean oil (SBO) and sunflower oil (SFO). SBO and SFO both contain high levels of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) (60.8 and 69%, respectively), with a PUFA:saturated fat ratio of 4.0 for SBO and 6.4 for SFO. SFO contains 69% C18:2n-6 and less than 0.1% C18:3n-3, while SBO contains 54% C18:2n-6 and 7.2% C18:3n-3. Thus, SFO and SBO each provide adequate amounts of C18:2n-6, but of the two, SBO provides C18:3n-3 with a C18:2n-6:C18:3n-3 ratio of 7.1. Epidemiological evidence has suggested an inverse relationship between the consumption of diets high in vegetable fat and blood pressure, although clinical findings have been inconclusive. Recent dietary guidelines suggest the desirability of decreasing consumption of total and saturated fat and cholesterol, an objective that can be achieved by substituting such oils as SFO and SBO for animal fats. Such changes have consistently resulted in decreased total and low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol, which is thought to be favorable with respect to decreasing risk of cardiovascular disease. Also, decreases in high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol have raised some concern. Use of vegetable oils such as SFO and SBO increases C18:2n-6, decreases C20:4n-6, and slightly elevated C20:5n-3 and C22:6n-3 in platelets, changes that slightly inhibit platelet generation of thromboxane and ex vivo aggregation. Whether chronic use of these oils will effectively block thrombosis at sites of vascular injury, inhibit pathologic platelet vascular interactions associated with atherosclerosis, or reduce the incidence of acute vascular occlusion in the coronary or cerebral circulation is uncertain. Linoleic acid is needed for normal immune response, and essential fatty acid (EFA) deficiency impairs B and T cell-mediated responses. SBO and SFO can provide adequate linoleic acid for maintenance of the immune response. Excess linoleic acid has supported tumor growth in animals, an effect not verified by data from diverse human studies of risk, incidence, or progression of cancers of the breast and colon. Areas yet to be investigated include the differential effects of n-6- and n-3-containing oil on tumor development in humans and whether shorter-chain n-3 PUFA of plant origin such as found in SBO will modulate these actions of linoleic acid, as has been shown for the longer-chain n-3 PUFA of marine oil

Measurements of atmospheric electricity aloft

Measurements of the electrical characteristics of the atmosphere above the surface have been made for over 200 years, from a variety of different platforms, including kites, balloons, rockets and aircraft. From these measurements, a great deal of information about the electrical characteristics of the atmosphere has been gained, assisting our understanding of the global atmospheric electric circuit, thunderstorm electrification and lightning generation mechanisms, discovery of transient luminous events above thunderstorms, and many other electrical phenomena. This paper surveys the history of atmospheric electrical measurements aloft, from the earliest manned balloon ascents to current day observations with free balloons and aircraft. Measurements of atmospheric electrical parameters in a range of meteorological conditions are described, including clear air conditions, polluted conditions, non-thunderstorm clouds, and thunderstorm clouds, spanning a range of atmospheric conditions, from fair weather, to the most electrically active

Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Society of Sports Nutrition (ISSN) Conference and Expo

Meeting Abstracts: Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Society of Sports Nutrition (ISSN) Conference and Expo Clearwater Beach, FL, USA. 9-11 June 201

Effects of fluoxetine on functional outcomes after acute stroke (FOCUS): a pragmatic, double-blind, randomised, controlled trial

Background Results of small trials indicate that fluoxetine might improve functional outcomes after stroke. The FOCUS trial aimed to provide a precise estimate of these effects. Methods FOCUS was a pragmatic, multicentre, parallel group, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial done at 103 hospitals in the UK. Patients were eligible if they were aged 18 years or older, had a clinical stroke diagnosis, were enrolled and randomly assigned between 2 days and 15 days after onset, and had focal neurological deficits. Patients were randomly allocated fluoxetine 20 mg or matching placebo orally once daily for 6 months via a web-based system by use of a minimisation algorithm. The primary outcome was functional status, measured with the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), at 6 months. Patients, carers, health-care staff, and the trial team were masked to treatment allocation. Functional status was assessed at 6 months and 12 months after randomisation. Patients were analysed according to their treatment allocation. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN83290762. Findings Between Sept 10, 2012, and March 31, 2017, 3127 patients were recruited. 1564 patients were allocated fluoxetine and 1563 allocated placebo. mRS data at 6 months were available for 1553 (99·3%) patients in each treatment group. The distribution across mRS categories at 6 months was similar in the fluoxetine and placebo groups (common odds ratio adjusted for minimisation variables 0·951 [95% CI 0·839–1·079]; p=0·439). Patients allocated fluoxetine were less likely than those allocated placebo to develop new depression by 6 months (210 [13·43%] patients vs 269 [17·21%]; difference 3·78% [95% CI 1·26–6·30]; p=0·0033), but they had more bone fractures (45 [2·88%] vs 23 [1·47%]; difference 1·41% [95% CI 0·38–2·43]; p=0·0070). There were no significant differences in any other event at 6 or 12 months. Interpretation Fluoxetine 20 mg given daily for 6 months after acute stroke does not seem to improve functional outcomes. Although the treatment reduced the occurrence of depression, it increased the frequency of bone fractures. These results do not support the routine use of fluoxetine either for the prevention of post-stroke depression or to promote recovery of function. Funding UK Stroke Association and NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Effectively integrating experiments into conservation practice

1. Making effective decisions in conservation requires a broad and robust evidence base describing the likely outcomes of potential actions to draw on. Such evidence is typically generated from experiments or trials that evaluate the effectiveness of actions, but for many actions evidence is missing or incomplete. 2. We discuss how evidence can be generated by incorporating experiments into conservation practice. This is likely to be most efficient if opportunities for carrying out informative, well-designed experiments are identified at an early stage during conservation management planning. 3. We consider how to navigate a way between the stringent requirements of statistical textbooks and the complexities of carrying out ecological experiments in the real world by considering practical approaches to the key issues of replication, controls and randomisation. 4. We suggest that routinely sharing the results of experiments could increase both the value for money and effectiveness of conservation practice. 5. We argue that with early planning and a small additional input of effort, important new learning can be gained during the implementation of many conservation actions.WJS, NO and AT are funded by Arcadia, a charitable fund of Lisbet Rausing and Peter Baldwin, NO via the Endangered Landscapes Programme, who also part-fund MH, WJS by MAVA, and The David and Claudia Harding Foundation. TA is supported by the Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT180100354) and the University of Queensland strategic funding. Thanks to Julia Jones and Jeremy Wilson for comments on previous drafts of this manuscript