Reliable, resilient and sustainable urban drainage systems: an analysis of robustness under deep uncertainty (article)

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the American Chemical Society via the DOI in this record.The dataset associated with this article is available in ORE at: https://doi.org/10.24378/exe.563Reliability, resilience and sustainability are key goals of any urban drainage system. However, only a few studies have recently focused on measuring, operationalizing and comparing such concepts in a world of deep uncertainty. In this study, these key concepts are defined and quantified for a number of gray, green and hybrid strategies, aimed at improving the capacity issues of an existing integrated urban wastewater system. These interventions are investigated by means of a regret-based approach, which evaluates the robustness (that is the ability to perform well under deep uncertainty conditions) of each strategy in terms of the three qualities through integration of multiple objectives (i.e. sewer flooding, river water quality, combined sewer overflows, river flooding, greenhouse gas emissions, cost and acceptability) across four different future scenarios. The results indicate that strategies found to be robust in terms of sustainability were typically also robust for resilience and reliability across future scenarios. However, strategies found to be robust in terms of their resilience and, in particular, for reliability did not guarantee robustness for sustainability. Conventional gray infrastructure strategies were found to lack robustness in terms of sustainability due to their unbalanced economic, environmental and social performance. Such limitations were overcome, however, by implementing hybrid solutions that combine green retrofits and gray rehabilitation solutions.This study was funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council through STREAM (EP/G037094/1) with Northumbrian Water Limited, BRIM (EP/N010329/1) and the final author’s fellowship Safe & SuRe (EP/K006924/1)

Modelling the impacts of agricultural management practices on river water quality in Eastern England

Agricultural diffuse water pollution remains a notable global pressure on water quality, posing risks to aquatic ecosystems, human health and water resources and as a result legislation has been introduced in many parts of the world to protect water bodies. Due to their efficiency and cost-effectiveness, water quality models have been increasingly applied to catchments as Decision Support Tools (DSTs) to identify mitigation options that can be introduced to reduce agricultural diffuse water pollution and improve water quality. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the River Wensum catchment in eastern England with the aim of quantifying the long-term impacts of potential changes to agricultural management practices on river water quality. Calibration and validation were successfully performed at a daily time-step against observations of discharge, nitrate and total phosphorus obtained from high-frequency water quality monitoring within the Blackwater sub-catchment, covering an area of 19.6 km2. A variety of mitigation options were identified and modelled, both singly and in combination, and their long-term effects on nitrate and total phosphorus losses were quantified together with the 95% uncertainty range of model predictions. Results showed that introducing a red clover cover crop to the crop rotation scheme applied within the catchment reduced nitrate losses by 19.6%. Buffer strips of 2 m and 6 m width represented the most effective options to reduce total phosphorus losses, achieving reductions of 12.2% and 16.9%, respectively. This is one of the first studies to quantify the impacts of agricultural mitigation options on long-term water quality for nitrate and total phosphorus at a daily resolution, in addition to providing an estimate of the uncertainties of those impacts. The results highlighted the need to consider multiple pollutants, the degree of uncertainty associated with model predictions and the risk of unintended pollutant impacts when evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation options, and showed that high-frequency water quality datasets can be applied to robustly calibrate water quality models, creating DSTs that are more effective and reliable

Impacts of Environmental Access Restrictions on Freight Delivery Activities, the Example of Low Emission Zones in Europe

The aim of this paper is to identify the position of goods vehicles in European Low Emission Zones and to analyze the impact of the access restrictions on transport and logistics firms and on their logistics activities. Low Emission Zones (LEZ) are delimited areas of a city or metropolitan area from which the vehicles that pollute the most are banned. Targeted vehicles are often freight vehicles as a result of the high levels of pollution emitted by today\u2019s urban delivery fleets. Through literature review, interviews and two specific surveys in London and Berlin, we analyzed LEZ impacts on the urban freight industry. We showed that the creation of a LEZ reduces the number of firms making urban deliveries, and that this reduction has probably benefited the urban freight market by compelling both public and private stakeholders to finds ways to promote more efficient activities. Such modernization is necessary as the urban freight market is dysfunctional in many respects: environmentally because of the old vehicles used until now, and socially because of the large number of small firms which find it difficult to maintain a sufficient level of business activity without breaking the sector\u2019s labor laws and safety standards

A GIS model-based assessment of the environmental distribution of g-hexachlorocyclohexane in European soils and waters

The MAPPE GIS based multimedia model is used to produce a quantitative description of the behaviour of γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (γ-HCH) in Europe, with emphasis on continental surface waters. The model is found to reasonably reproduce γ-HCH distributions and variations along the years in atmosphere and soil; for continental surface waters, concentrations were reasonably well predicted for year 1995, when lindane was still used in agriculture, while for 2005, assuming severe restrictions in use, yields to substantial underestimation. Much better results were yielded when same mode of release as in 1995 was considered, supporting the conjecture that for γ-HCH, emission data rather that model structure and parameterization can be responsible for wrong estimation of concentrations. Future research should be directed to improve the quality of emission data. Joint interpretation of monitoring and modelling results, highlights that lindane emissions in Europe, despite the marked decreasing trend, persist beyond the provisions of existing legislation. An spatially-explicit multimedia modelling strategy was applied to describe the historical distribution of γ-HCH in European soils and surface waters

Orthophosphate-P in the nutrient impacted River Taw and its catchment (SW England) between 1990 and 2013.

Excess dissolved phosphorus (as orthophosphate-P) contributes to reduced river water quality within Europe and elsewhere. This study reports results from analysis of a 23 year (1990-2013) water quality dataset for orthophosphate-P in the rural Taw catchment (SW England). Orthophosphate-P and river flow relationships and temporal variations in orthophosphate-P concentrations indicate the significant contribution of sewage (across the catchment) and industrial effluent (upper R. Taw) to orthophosphate-P concentrations (up to 96%), particularly during the low flow summer months when maximum algal growth occurs. In contrast, concentrations of orthophosphate-P from diffuse sources within the catchment were more important (>80%) at highest river flows. The results from a 3 end-member mixing model incorporating effluent, groundwater and diffuse orthophosphate-P source terms suggested that sewage and/or industrial effluent contributes ≥50% of the orthophosphate-P load for 27-48% of the time across the catchment. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) Phase 2 standards for reactive phosphorus, introduced in 2015, showed the R. Taw to be generally classified as Poor to Moderate Ecological Status, with a Good Status occurring more frequently in the tributary rivers. Failure to achieve Good Ecological Status occurred even though, since the early-2000s, riverine orthophosphate-P concentrations have decreased (although the mechanism(s) responsible for this could not be identified). For the first time it has been demonstrated that sewage and industrial effluent sources of alkalinity to the river can give erroneous boundary concentrations of orthophosphate-P for WFD Ecological Status classification, the extent of which is dependent on the proportion of effluent alkalinity present. This is likely to be a European - wide issue which should be examined in more detail

Seasonal variation of contaminant concentrations in wastewater treatment works effluents and river waters.

Results are presented for 170 wastewater treatment works sites (20 per substance in influent, effluent and 36 per substance in river water upstream and downstream of the WwTW discharge) over a period of two years between 2015 and 2017; this comprises data for approximately 3000 samples for effluent and 6000 for river samples taken downstream of effluent discharges. Seasonal trends in contaminant concentrations for several substances are reported. Two clear patterns of seasonal variation are proposed over and above all of the variables associated with environmental data including process technology, dilution and geography. Firstly, variation of riverine concentrations caused by seasonal fluctuations in river flow (sewage flow being relatively consistent) resulting in summer maxima and winter minima. Alternatively, variation is observed that is attributable to the improved performance of wastewater treatment processes under warmer conditions. This leads to the lowest concentrations in autumn when surface water/sewage treatment temperatures tend to peak. Seasonality for trace contaminants is more difficult to characterise than that of sanitary parameters owing to the higher variability in the concentration of the substances of interest. The data also provide an insight into the amplitude of such variations. This makes it possible to assess the likely effects of seasonality and its impact on aquatic life. For example, the existence of seasonality (perhaps due only to dilution effects) might be demonstrated, but the amplitude might be too small in relation to the potential ecotoxicological effects to be of any consequence

Rethinking data‐driven decision support in flood risk management for a big data age

Decision‐making in flood risk management is increasingly dependent on access to data, with the availability of data increasing dramatically in recent years. We are therefore moving towards an era of big data, with the added challenges that, in this area, data sources are highly heterogeneous, at a variety of scales, and include a mix of structured and unstructured data. The key requirement is therefore one of integration and subsequent analyses of this complex web of data. This paper examines the potential of a data‐driven approach to support decision‐making in flood risk management, with the goal of investigating a suitable software architecture and associated set of techniques to support a more data‐centric approach. The key contribution of the paper is a cloud‐based data hypercube that achieves the desired level of integration of highly complex data. This hypercube builds on innovations in cloud services for data storage, semantic enrichment and querying, and also features the use of notebook technologies to support open and collaborative scenario analyses in support of decision making. The paper also highlights the success of our agile methodology in weaving together cross‐disciplinary perspectives and in engaging a wide range of stakeholders in exploring possible technological futures for flood risk management

Strategic risk appraisal. Comparing expert- and literature-informed consequence assessments for environmental policy risks receiving national attention

Strategic risk appraisal (SRA) has been applied to compare diverse policy level risks to and from the environment in England and Wales. Its application has relied on expert-informed assessments of the potential consequences from residual risks that attract policy attention at the national scale. Here we compare consequence assessments, across environmental, economic and social impact categories that draw on ‘expert’- and ‘literature-based’ analyses of the evidence for 12 public risks appraised by Government. For environmental consequences there is reasonable agreement between the two sources of assessment, with expert-informed assessments providing a narrower dispersion of impact severity and with median values similar in scale to those produced by an analysis of the literature. The situation is more complex for economic consequences, with a greater spread in the median values, less consistency between the two assessment types and a shift toward higher severity values across the risk portfolio. For social consequences, the spread of severity values is greater still, with no consistent trend between the severities of impact expressed by the two types of assessment. For the latter, the findings suggest the need for a fuller representation of socioeconomic expertise in SRA and the workshops that inform SRA output