Incidence and Reproduction Numbers of Pertussis: Estimates from Serological and Social Contact Data in Five European Countries

Analyses of serological and social contact data from several European countries by Miriam Kretzschmar and colleagues show that vaccination against pertussis has shifted the burden of infection from children to adolescents and adults

Transmission of Novel Influenza A(H1N1) in Households with Post-Exposure Antiviral Prophylaxis

BACKGROUND: Despite impressive advances in our understanding of the biology of novel influenza A(H1N1) virus, little is as yet known about its transmission efficiency in close contact places such as households, schools, and workplaces. These are widely believed to be key in supporting propagating spread, and it is therefore of importance to assess the transmission levels of the virus in such settings. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We estimate the transmissibility of novel influenza A(H1N1) in 47 households in the Netherlands using stochastic epidemic models. All households contained a laboratory confirmed index case, and antiviral drugs (oseltamivir) were given to both the index case and other households members within 24 hours after detection of the index case. Among the 109 household contacts there were 9 secondary infections in 7 households. The overall estimated secondary attack rate is low (0.075, 95%CI: 0.037-0.13). There is statistical evidence indicating that older persons are less susceptible to infection than younger persons (relative susceptibility of older persons: 0.11, 95%CI: 0.024-0.43. Notably, the secondary attack rate from an older to a younger person is 0.35 (95%CI: 0.14-0.61) when using an age classification of <or=12 versus >12 years, and 0.28 (95%CI: 0.12-0.50) when using an age classification of <or=18 versus >18 years. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results indicate that the overall household transmission levels of novel influenza A(H1N1) in antiviral-treated households were low in the early stage of the epidemic. The relatively high rate of adult-to-child transmission indicates that control measures focused on this transmission route will be most effective in minimizing the total number of infections

Climate, human behaviour or environment: individual-based modelling of Campylobacter seasonality and strategies to reduce disease burden

Acknowledgements: We thank colleagues within the Modelling, Evidence and Policy Research Group for useful feedback on this manuscript. Competing interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Availability of data and materials: The R code used in this research is available at https://gitlab.com/rasanderson/campylobacter-microsimulation; it is platform independent, R version 3.3.0 and above. Funding: This research was funded by Medical Research Council Grant, Natural Environment Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, and the Food Standards Agency through the Environmental and Social Ecology of Human Infectious Diseases Initiative (Sources, seasonality, transmission and control: Campylobacter and human behaviour in a changing environment (ENIGMA); Grant Reference G1100799-1). PRH, SJO’B, and IRL are funded in part by the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Gastrointestinal Infection, at the University of Liverpool. PRH and IRL are also funded in part by the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emergency Preparedness and Response, at King’s College London. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, the Department of Health or Public Health England.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The Constrained Maximal Expression Level Owing to Haploidy Shapes Gene Content on the Mammalian X Chromosome.

X chromosomes are unusual in many regards, not least of which is their nonrandom gene content. The causes of this bias are commonly discussed in the context of sexual antagonism and the avoidance of activity in the male germline. Here, we examine the notion that, at least in some taxa, functionally biased gene content may more profoundly be shaped by limits imposed on gene expression owing to haploid expression of the X chromosome. Notably, if the X, as in primates, is transcribed at rates comparable to the ancestral rate (per promoter) prior to the X chromosome formation, then the X is not a tolerable environment for genes with very high maximal net levels of expression, owing to transcriptional traffic jams. We test this hypothesis using The Encyclopedia of DNA Elements (ENCODE) and data from the Functional Annotation of the Mammalian Genome (FANTOM5) project. As predicted, the maximal expression of human X-linked genes is much lower than that of genes on autosomes: on average, maximal expression is three times lower on the X chromosome than on autosomes. Similarly, autosome-to-X retroposition events are associated with lower maximal expression of retrogenes on the X than seen for X-to-autosome retrogenes on autosomes. Also as expected, X-linked genes have a lesser degree of increase in gene expression than autosomal ones (compared to the human/Chimpanzee common ancestor) if highly expressed, but not if lowly expressed. The traffic jam model also explains the known lower breadth of expression for genes on the X (and the Z of birds), as genes with broad expression are, on average, those with high maximal expression. As then further predicted, highly expressed tissue-specific genes are also rare on the X and broadly expressed genes on the X tend to be lowly expressed, both indicating that the trend is shaped by the maximal expression level not the breadth of expression per se. Importantly, a limit to the maximal expression level explains biased tissue of expression profiles of X-linked genes. Tissues whose tissue-specific genes are very highly expressed (e.g., secretory tissues, tissues abundant in structural proteins) are also tissues in which gene expression is relatively rare on the X chromosome. These trends cannot be fully accounted for in terms of alternative models of biased expression. In conclusion, the notion that it is hard for genes on the Therian X to be highly expressed, owing to transcriptional traffic jams, provides a simple yet robustly supported rationale of many peculiar features of X's gene content, gene expression, and evolution

Quantification of Salmonella Survival and Infection in an In vitro Model of the Human Intestinal Tract as Proxy for Foodborne Pathogens.

Different techniques are available for assessing differences in virulence of bacterial foodborne pathogens. The use of animal models or human volunteers is not expedient for various reasons; the use of epidemiological data is often hampered by lack of crucial data. In this paper, we describe a static, sequential gastrointestinal tract (GIT) model system in which foodborne pathogens are exposed to simulated gastric and intestinal contents of the human digestive tract, including the interaction of pathogens with the intestinal epithelium. The system can be employed with any foodborne bacterial pathogens. Five strains of Salmonella Heidelberg and one strain of Salmonella Typhimurium were used to assess the robustness of the system. Four S. Heidelberg strains originated from an outbreak, the fifth S. Heidelberg strain and the S. Typhimurium strain originated from routine meat inspections. Data from plate counts, collected for determining the numbers of surviving bacteria in each stage, were used to quantify both the experimental uncertainty and biological variability of pathogen survival throughout the system. For this, a hierarchical Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) was employed. The model system is able to distinguish serovars/strains for in vitro infectivity when accounting for within strain biological variability and experimental uncertainty

Using data on social contacts to estimate age-specific transmission parameters for respiratory-spread infectious agents.

The estimation of transmission parameters has been problematic for diseases that rely predominantly on transmission of pathogens from person to person through small infectious droplets. Age-specific transmission parameters determine how such respiratory agents will spread among different age groups in a human population. Estimating the values of these parameters is essential in planning an effective response to potentially devastating pandemics of smallpox or influenza and in designing control strategies for diseases such as measles or mumps. In this study, the authors estimated age-specific transmission parameters by augmenting infectious disease data with auxiliary data on self-reported numbers of conversational partners per person. They show that models that use transmission parameters based on these self-reported social contacts are better able to capture the observed patterns of infection of endemically circulating mumps, as well as observed patterns of spread of pandemic influenza. The estimated age-specific transmission parameters suggested that school-aged children and young adults will experience the highest incidence of infection and will contribute most to further spread of infections during the initial phase of an emerging respiratory-spread epidemic in a completely susceptible population. These findings have important implications for controlling future outbreaks of novel respiratory-spread infectious agents

Exposure to low doses of Coxiella burnetii caused high illness attack rates : Insights from combining human challenge and outbreak data

BACKGROUND: As a major zoonotic pathogen, characterization of the infectivity and pathogenicity of Coxiella burnetii is essential to understand Q-fever epidemiology. OBJECTIVES: We want to extend a recently published human dose response model based on experimental challenge of young adult males to include other age groups and both genders. Additionally, we can estimate the spatial distribution of exposure based on observed outbreak data. METHODS: Dose response assessment based on human challenge, is extended by including outbreak data, using location of cases as a proxy for exposure. This allows estimation of the influence of age and gender on the probability of developing symptoms of acute respiratory illness. RESULTS: In an outbreak in Switzerland, in 1983, exposure to C. burnetii was shown to depend strongly on distance from the source. The susceptibility of males to develop Q-fever decreases with age, while in females, middle-aged women appear to have the lowest risk. CONCLUSIONS: The published dose response model for Q-fever, based on experimental challenge of a small group of human volunteers, has been updated with data from a well studied outbreak. Infectivity estimates remain high, and even low doses (of 10 or fewer organisms) cause a high risk of illness