Editorial: Remembering Natalya Nikolaevna Vygodskaya

As the Guest Editor I want to dedicate this Special Issue in memory of my university professor Natalya Nikolaevna Vygodskaya (Figure 1) [...

Carbon balance assessment of a natural steppe of southern Siberia by multiple constraint approach

Steppe ecosystems represent an interesting case in which the assessment of carbon balance may be performed through a cross validation of the eddy covariance measurements against ecological inventory estimates of carbon exchanges (Ehman et al., 2002; Curtis et al., 2002). <br><br> Indeed, the widespread presence of ideal conditions for the applicability of the eddy covariance technique, as vast and homogeneous grass vegetation cover over flat terrains (Baldocchi, 2003), make steppes a suitable ground to ensure a constrain to flux estimates with independent methodological approaches. <br><br> We report about the analysis of the carbon cycle of a true steppe ecosystem in southern Siberia during the growing season of 2004 in the framework of the TCOS-Siberia project activities performed by continuous monitoring of CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes at ecosystem scale by the eddy covariance method, fortnightly samplings of phytomass, and ingrowth cores extractions for NPP assessment, and weekly measurements of heterotrophic component of soil CO<sub>2</sub> effluxes obtained by an experiment of root exclusion. <br><br> The carbon balance of the monitored natural steppe was, according to micrometeorological measurements, a sink of carbon of 151.7±36.9 g C m<sup>−2</sup>, cumulated during the growing season from May to September. This result was in agreement with the independent estimate through ecological inventory which yielded a sink of 150.1 g C m<sup>−2</sup> although this method was characterized by a large uncertainty (±130%) considering the 95% confidence interval of the estimate. Uncertainties in belowground process estimates account for a large part of the error. Thus, in particular efforts to better quantify the dynamics of root biomass (growth and turnover) have to be undertaken in order to reduce the uncertainties in the assessment of NPP. This assessment should be preferably based on the application of multiple methods, each one characterized by its own merits and flaws

Probabilistic Projections of 21st Century Climate Change over Northern Eurasia

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere, to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model; and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate-change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for key sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections; climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate); natural variability; and structural uncertainty. Results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider all sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.We would like to recognize the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) for providing the background that made this study possible. This work was partially funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, under grant DE-FG02-94ER61937. The Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is funded by a number of federal agencies and a consortium of 40 industrial and foundation sponsors. (For the complete list see http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/current.html). This research used the Evergreen computing cluster at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Evergreen is supported by the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC05-76RL01830. 20th Century Reanalysis V2 data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia

Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these climate-driven changes to reshape the region's landscape. Here we present an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change on land use and associated land carbon sink activity for Northern Eurasia in the context of climate-induced vegetation shifts. Under a 'business-as-usual' scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts allow expansion of areas devoted to food crop production (15%) and pastures (39%) over the 21st century. Under a climate stabilization scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts permit expansion of areas devoted to cellulosic biofuel production (25%) and pastures (21%), but reduce the expansion of areas devoted to food crop production by 10%. In both climate scenarios, vegetation shifts further reduce the areas devoted to timber production by 6–8% over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become more of a carbon source than if no vegetation shifts occur. Consideration of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts and human activities through a modeling framework has provided clues to how humans may be able to adapt to a changing world and identified the trade-offs, including unintended consequences, associated with proposed climate/energy policies.United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Land-Cover and Land-Use Change program NASA-NNX09A126G

An estimate of the terrestrial carbon budget of Russia using inventory-based, eddy covariance and inversion methods

We determine the carbon balance of Russia, including Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan using inventory based, eddy covariance, Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVM), and inversion methods. Our current best estimate of the net biosphere to atmosphere flux is -0.66 Pg C yr-1. This sink is primarily caused by forests that using two independent methods are estimated to take up -0.69 Pg C yr-1. Using inverse models yields an average net biosphere to atmosphere flux of the same value with a interannual variability of 35%. The total estimated biosphere to atmosphere flux from eddy covariance observations over a limited number of sites amounts to -1 Pg C yr-1. Fires emit 137 to 121 Tg C yr-1 using two different methods. The interannual variability of fire emissions is large, up to a factor 0.5 to 3. Smaller fluxes to the ocean and inland lakes, trade are also accounted for. Our best estimate for the Russian net biosphere to atmosphere flux then amounts to -659 Tg C yr-1 as the average of the inverse models of -653 Tg C yr-1, bottom up -563 Tg C yr-1 and the independent landscape approach of -761 Tg C yr-1. These three methods agree well within their error bounds, so there is good consistency between bottom up and top down methods. The best estimate of the net land to atmosphere flux, including the fossil fuel emissions is -145 to -73 Tg C yr-1. Estimated methane emissions vary considerably with one inventory-based estimate providing a net land to atmosphere flux of 12.6 Tg C-CH4yr-1 and an independent model estimate for the boreal and Arctic zones of Eurasia of 27.6 Tg C-CH4yr-1

Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change

Reviews and syntheses : Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

In recent years, the pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesizes current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the pan-Arctic have consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following. (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e. lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the pan-Arctic, and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70 degrees N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use and forest transitions from forest-steppe to steppe, tundra to taiga, and coniferous to deciduous in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning, depending on land use in addition to climate-driven biome shifts. However, at the country and landscape scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2.5 emissions from wildfires above 50 and 65 degrees N are larger than emissions from the anthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60 degrees N, with 56% of black carbon emissions above 65 degrees N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning - indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and how severe future Arctic wildfire seasons can potentially be. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems, and pan-Arctic communities.peerReviewe