Cai, Y.

Kickligther, D.

Paltsev, S.

Shvidenko, A.

Sirin, A.

Sokolov, A.

Tchebakova, N.

Zhuang, Q.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Geophysical Research AbstractsVol. 14, EGU2012-12492, 2012EGU General Assembly 2012© Author(s) 2012The Role of Climate Change and Human Activities in Northern Eurasiaon Global Changes of Land Cover and Land Use and CarbonBiogeochemistryQ. Zhuang (1), D. Kicklighter (2), Y. Cai (3), N. Tchebakova (4), E. Parfenova (4), J. Melillo (2), J. Reilly (3), S.Paltsev (3), A. Sokolov (3), A. Shvidenko (5), A. Sirin (6), G. Zhou (7), S. Maksyutov (8), and A. Peregon (9)(1) Purdue University, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences and Agronomy, West Lafayette, United States (qzhuang@purdue.edu),(2) Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA, (3) Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, (4) V.N.Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russia, (5) InternationalInstitute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (6) Institute of Forest Science, Russian Academy of Sciences, (7)Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, (8) : National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan, (9)CEA Centre de Saclay Laboratoire des Science Du Climat et de l’Environnement, L’Orme des Merisiers, Bat. 701/7 Pointcourrier 129 91191 Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex, FranceIn recent decades, the largest increase of surface air temperature and related climate extremes have occurred innorthern Eurasia. This temperature increase and extreme climate change are projected to continue during the 21stcentury according to climate models. The changing climate is likely to affect land cover and the biogeochemicalcycles in the region. These changes in biogeography and biogeochemistry, in turn, will affect how land use evolvesin the future as humans attempt to mitigate and adapt to future climate change. Regional land-use changes, however,also depend on pressures imposed by the global economy. Feedbacks from future land-use change will furthermodify regional and global biogeochemistry and climate. Using a suite of linked biogeography, biogeochemical,economic, and climate models, we explore how climate-induced vegetation shifts in Northern Eurasia influencesland-use change and carbon cycling across the globe during the 21st century. We find that, by the end of the 21stcentury, the vegetation shift due to climate is a more important factor than the climate itself in driving land usechange in Northern Eurasia. While climate policy appears to have little influence on the cumulative release of about20 Pg C from Northern Eurasia over the 21st century, the redistribution of global land use causes the terrestrialbiosphere to sequester less carbon (43 Pg C) with implementation of a climate policy than without a policy (65Pg C). The vegetation shift in Northern Eurasia induced from changing climate and demands of global economicgrowth significantly affect both regional and global land use and decreases carbon sink activities at both regionaland global scales.

The role of climate change and human activities in Northern Eurasia on global changes of land cover and land use and carbon biogeochemistry

The role of climate change and human activities in Northern Eurasia on global changes of land cover and land use and carbon biogeochemistry

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)