Prediction of outcome after abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture

This thesis aims to examine the validity of existing tools recommended for outcome prediction after abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture and to design and validate a novel risk scoring instrument. It also aims to examine the utility of novel predictive variables. Finally, it examines the functional outcomes achieved by survivors of aneurysm rupture.Existing risk models and predictive variables for outcome were validated on a retrospective cohort of consecutive patients with ruptured AAA. These data were also used to design a novel prognostic index for outcome prediction. A prospective cohort of consecutive patients was used to further validate these scoring systems, examine novel prognostic variables and determine functional outcome.Existing risk scoring instruments for patients with ruptured AAA lack validity. Analysis of preoperative variables in patients with ruptured AAA shows that absolute surgical futility cannot be predicted. However, in-hospital hypotension (<90mmHg), reduced Glasgow Coma Scale (<15) and anaemia (<9g/dL) are associated with perioperative death. When these risk factors are equally weighted and combined to create a novel risk scoring instrument (Edinburgh Ruptured Aneurysm Score-ERAS), three discriminatory tiers of risk are demonstrable. The validity of this risk instrument is confirmed on prospective data. Examination of novel perioperative prognostic variables shows that elevated cardiac troponin I, with or without clinically apparent cardiac dysfunction, is predictive of death after ruptured AAA repair. However, although ruptured AAA are associated with an early elevation in inflammatory biomarkers, these do not appear to confer additional prognostic value. Furthermore, for the first time, prospective study shows that patients who survive ruptured AAA repair achieve a good recovery in terms of functional outcome within six months of operation.Surgical futility cannot be predicted prior to operation in patients with AAA. However, the ERAS shows potential as a preoperative prognostic index in patients with ruptured AAA

Autologous deep vein reconstruction of infected thoracoabdominal aortic patch graft

AbstractGraft infection remains a serious complication of prosthetic aortic repair. Infection of thoracoabdominal aortic prosthetic grafts, in particular, is a significant clinical challenge and is associated with high mortality. We report successful in situ reconstruction of an infected thoracoabdominal aortic prosthetic patch graft with autogenous superficial femoral vein. To our knowledge, this is the first such case described in the North American and English language surgical literature. At 24-month follow-up the patient remains well, with no evidence of sepsis or graft complication at clinical and radiologic assessment

Prediction of outcome after abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture

BackgroundMost vascular surgeons practice a selective policy of operative intervention for patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). The evidence on which to justify operative selection remains uncertain. This review examines the prediction of outcome after attempted open repair of ruptured AAA.MethodsThe Medline and EMBASE databases and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched for clinical studies relating to the prediction of outcome after ruptured AAA. Reference lists of relevant articles were also reviewed.ResultsThe last 20 years has seen >60 publications considering variables predictive of outcome after AAA rupture. Four predictive scoring systems are reported: Hardman Index, Glasgow Aneurysm Score, Physiological and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM), and the Vancouver Scoring System. No scoring system has been shown to have consistent or absolute validity. Of the remaining data, there are no individual or combination of variables that can accurately and consistently predict outcome.ConclusionsLittle robust evidence is available on which to base preoperative outcome prediction in patients with ruptured AAA. Experienced clinical judgement will remain of foremost importance in the selection of patients for ruptured AAA repair

Early ultrasound surveillance of newly-created haemodialysis arteriovenous fistula

IntroductionWe assess if ultrasound surveillance of newly-created arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) can predict nonmaturation sufficiently reliably to justify randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluation of ultrasound-directed salvage intervention.MethodsConsenting adults underwent blinded fortnightly ultrasound scanning of their AVF after creation, with scan characteristics that predicted AVF nonmaturation identified by logistic regression modeling.ResultsOf 333 AVFs created, 65.8% matured by 10 weeks. Serial scanning revealed that maturation occurred rapidly, whereas consistently lower fistula flow rates and venous diameters were observed in those that did not mature. Wrist and elbow AVF nonmaturation could be optimally modeled from week 4 ultrasound parameters alone, but with only moderate positive predictive values (PPVs) (wrist, 60.6% [95% confidence interval, CI: 43.9–77.3]; elbow, 66.7% [48.9–84.4]). Moreover, 40 (70.2%) of the 57 AVFs that thrombosed by week 10 had already failed by the week 4 scan, thus limiting the potential of salvage procedures initiated by that scan’s findings to alter overall maturation rates. Modeling of the early ultrasound characteristics could also predict primary patency failure at 6 months; however, that model performed poorly at predicting assisted primary failure (those AVFs that failed despite a salvage attempt), partly because patency of at-risk AVFs was maintained by successful salvage performed without recourse to the early scan data.ConclusionEarly ultrasound surveillance may predict fistula maturation, but is likely, at best, to result in only very modest improvements in fistula patency. Power calculations suggest that an impractically large number of participants (>1700) would be required for formal RCT evaluation

Surveillance arterioveNous fistulAs using ultRasound (SONAR) trial in haemodialysis patients: a study protocol for a multicentre observational study.

INTRODUCTION: Arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) are considered the best and safest modality for providing haemodialysis in patients with end-stage renal disease. Only 20% of UK centres achieve the recommended 80% target for achieving dialysis of the prevalent dialysis population via permanent access (as opposed to a central venous catheter). This is partly due to the relatively poor maturation rate of newly created fistulas, with as many as 50% of fistulas failing to mature.The Surveillance Of arterioveNous fistulAe using ultRasound study will examine whether a protocolised programme of Doppler ultrasound (US) surveillance can identify, early after creation, potentially correctable problems in those AVFs that subsequently fail to mature. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a multicentre observational study that will assess newly created AVFs by Doppler US performed at 2, 4, 6 and 10 weeks after creation. The primary outcome measure will be primary fistula patency at week 10. Secondary outcome measures include: successful use of the fistula; clinical suitability for dialysis; creation of new fistula or radiological salvage; fistula thrombosis; secondary fistula patency rate and patient acceptability. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the Cambridgeshire and Hertfordshire Research Ethics Committee and by the Health Research Authority (REC 18/EE/0234). The results generated from this work will be published as open access, within 3 years of trial commencement. We will also present our findings at key national/international renal meetings, as well as support volunteers at renal patient groups to disseminate the trial outcome. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN36033877

Assessment of abdominal aortic aneurysm biology using magnetic resonance imaging and positron emission tomography-computed tomography.

Background Although abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) growth is non-linear, serial measurements of aneurysm diameter are the mainstay of aneurysm surveillance and contribute to decisions on timing of intervention. Aneurysm biology plays a key part in disease evolution but is not currently routinely assessed in clinical practice. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and Positron Emission Tomography-Computed Tomography (PET-CT) provide insight into disease processes on a cellular or molecular level, and represent exciting new imaging biomarkers of disease activity. Macrophage-mediated inflammation may be assessed using ultrasmall superparamagnetic particles of iron oxide (USPIO) MRI and the PET radiotracer 18FSodium Fluoride (18F-NaF) identifies microcalcification which is a response to underlying necrotic inflammation. The central aim of this thesis was to investigate these imaging modalities in patients with AAA. Methods and Results USPIO MRI: MULTI-CENTRE STUDY In a prospective multi-centre observational cohort study, 342 patients (85.4% male, mean age 73.1±7.2 years, mean AAA diameter 49.6±7.7mm) with asymptomatic AAA ≥4 cm anteroposterior diameter underwent MRI before and 24-36 hours after intravenous administration of USPIO. Colour maps (depicting the change in T2* caused by USPIO) were used to classify aneurysms on the basis of the presence of USPIO uptake in the aneurysm wall, representing mural inflammation. Intra- and inter-observer agreement were found to be very good, with proportional agreement of 0.91 (kappa 0.82) and 0.83 (kappa 0.66), respectively. At 1 year, there was 29.3% discordant classification of aneurysms on repeated USPIO MRI and at 2 years, discordance was 65%, suggesting that inflammation evolves over time. In the observational study, after a mean of 1005±280 days of follow up, there were 126 (36.8%) aneurysm repairs and 17 (5.0%) ruptures. Participants with USPIO enhancement (42.7%) had increased aneurysm expansion rates (3·1±2·5 versus 2·5±2·4 mm/year; difference 0·6 [95% confidence intervals (CI), 0·02 to 1·2] mm/year, p=0·0424) and had higher rates of aneurysm rupture or repair (69/146=47·3% versus 68/191=35·6%; difference 11·7%, 95% CI 1·1 to 22·2%, p=0·0308). USPIO MRI was therefore shown to predict AAA expansion and the composite of rupture or repair, however this was not independent of aneurysm diameter (c-statistic, 0·7924 to 0·7926; unconditional net reclassification -13·5%, 95% confidence intervals -36·4% to 9·3%). 18F-NaF PET-CT: SINGLE-CENTRE STUDY A sub-group of 76 patients also underwent 18F-NaF PET-CT, which was evaluated using the maximum tissue-to-background ratio (TBRmax) in the most diseased segment (MDS), a technique that showed very good intra- (ICC 0.70-0.89) and inter-observer (ICC 0.637-0.856) agreement. Aneurysm tracer uptake was compared firstly in a case-control study, with 20 patients matched to 20 control patients for age, sex and smoking status. 18F-NaF uptake was higher in aneurysm when compared to control aorta (log2TBRmax 1.712±0.560 vs. 1.314±0.489; difference 0.398 (95% CI 0.057, 0.739), p=0.023), or to non-aneurysmal aorta in patients with AAA (log2TBRmax 1.647±0.537 vs. 1.332±0.497; difference 0.314 (95% CI 0.0685, 0.560), p=0.004). An ex vivo study was performed on aneurysm and control tissue, which demonstrated that 18F-NaF uptake on microPET-CT was higher in the aneurysm hotspots and higher in aneurysm tissue compared to control tissue. Histological analysis suggested that 18F-NaF was highest in areas of focal calcification and necrosis. In an observational cohort study, aneurysms were stratified by tertiles of TBRmax in the MDS and followed up for 510±196 days, with 6 monthly serial ultrasound measurements of diameter. Those in the highest tertile of tracer uptake expanded more than 2.5 times more rapidly than those in the lowest tertile (3.10 [3.58] mm/year vs. 1.24 [2.41] mm/year, p=0.008) and were also more likely to experience repair or rupture (15.3% vs. 5.6%, log-rank p=0.043). In multivariable analyses, 18F-NaF uptake on PET-CT emerged as an independent predictor of AAA expansion (p=0.042) and rupture or repair (HR 2.49, 95% CI1.07, 5.78; p=0.034), even when adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, current smoking and, crucially, aneurysm diameter. Conclusion These are the largest USPIO MRI and PET-CT studies in AAA disease to date and the first to investigate 18F-NaF. Both USPIO MRI and 18F-NaF PET-CT are able to predict AAA expansion and the composite of rupture and repair, with 18F-NaF PETCT emerging as the first imaging biomarker that independently predicts expansion and AAA events, even after adjustment for aneurysm diameter. This represents an exciting new predictor of disease progression that adds incremental value to standard clinical assessments. Feasibility and randomised clinical trials are now required to assess the potential of this technique to change the management and outcome of patients with AAA