Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and Gross Domestic Product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose; the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool, and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water

Spatial Dimensions of Dengue Virus Transmission across Interepidemic and Epidemic Periods in Iquitos, Peru (1999–2003)

To target prevention and control strategies for dengue fever, it is essential to understand how the virus travels through the city. We report spatial analyses of dengue infections from a study monitoring school children and adult family members for dengue infection at six-month intervals from 1999–2003, in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. At the beginning of the study, only DENV serotypes 1 and 2 were circulating. Clusters of infections of these two viruses were concentrated in the northern region of the city, where mosquito indices and previous DENV infection were both high. In 2002, DENV-3 invaded the city, replacing DENV-1 and -2 as the dominant strain. During the invasion process, the virus spread rapidly across the city, at low levels. After this initial phase, clusters of infection appeared first in the northern region of the city, where clusters of DENV-1 and DENV-2 had occurred in prior years. Most of the clusters we identified had radii >100 meters, indicating that targeted or reactive treatment of these high-risk areas might be an effective proactive intervention strategy. Our results also help explain why vector control within 100 m of a dengue case is often not successful for large-scale disease prevention

Linkage Group Selection: Towards Identifying Genes Controlling Strain Specific Protective Immunity in Malaria

Protective immunity against blood infections of malaria is partly specific to the genotype, or strain, of the parasites. The target antigens of Strain Specific Protective Immunity are expected, therefore, to be antigenically and genetically distinct in different lines of parasite. Here we describe the use of a genetic approach, Linkage Group Selection, to locate the target(s) of Strain Specific Protective Immunity in the rodent malaria parasite Plasmodium chabaudi chabaudi. In a previous such analysis using the progeny of a genetic cross between P. c. chabaudi lines AS-pyr1 and CB, a location on P. c. chabaudi chromosome 8 containing the gene for merozoite surface protein-1, a known candidate antigen for Strain Specific Protective Immunity, was strongly selected. P. c. chabaudi apical membrane antigen-1, another candidate for Strain Specific Protective Immunity, could not have been evaluated in this cross as AS-pyr1 and CB are identical within the cell surface domain of this protein. Here we use Linkage Group Selection analysis of Strain Specific Protective Immunity in a cross between P. c. chabaudi lines CB-pyr10 and AJ, in which merozoite surface protein-1 and apical membrane antigen-1 are both genetically distinct. In this analysis strain specific immune selection acted strongly on the region of P. c. chabaudi chromosome 8 encoding merozoite surface protein-1 and, less strongly, on the P. c. chabaudi chromosome 9 region encoding apical membrane antigen-1. The evidence from these two independent studies indicates that Strain Specific Protective Immunity in P. c. chabaudi in mice is mainly determined by a narrow region of the P. c. chabaudi genome containing the gene for the P. c. chabaudi merozoite surface protein-1 protein. Other regions, including that containing the gene for P. c. chabaudi apical membrane antigen-1, may be more weakly associated with Strain Specific Protective Immunity in these parasites

A meta-analysis of long-term effects of conservation agriculture on maize grain yield under rain-fed conditions

Conservation agriculture involves reduced tillage, permanent soil cover and crop rotations to enhance soil fertility and to supply food from a dwindling land resource. Recently, conservation agriculture has been promoted in Southern Africa, mainly for maize-based farming systems. However, maize yields under rain-fed conditions are often variable. There is therefore a need to identify factors that influence crop yield under conservation agriculture and rain-fed conditions. Here, we studied maize grain yield data from experiments lasting 5 years and more under rain-fed conditions. We assessed the effect of long-term tillage and residue retention on maize grain yield under contrasting soil textures, nitrogen input and climate. Yield variability was measured by stability analysis. Our results show an increase in maize yield over time with conservation agriculture practices that include rotation and high input use in low rainfall areas. But we observed no difference in system stability under those conditions. We observed a strong relationship between maize grain yield and annual rainfall. Our meta-analysis gave the following findings: (1) 92% of the data show that mulch cover in high rainfall areas leads to lower yields due to waterlogging; (2) 85% of data show that soil texture is important in the temporal development of conservation agriculture effects, improved yields are likely on well-drained soils; (3) 73% of the data show that conservation agriculture practices require high inputs especially N for improved yield; (4) 63% of data show that increased yields are obtained with rotation but calculations often do not include the variations in rainfall within and between seasons; (5) 56% of the data show that reduced tillage with no mulch cover leads to lower yields in semi-arid areas; and (6) when adequate fertiliser is available, rainfall is the most important determinant of yield in southern Africa. It is clear from our results that conservation agriculture needs to be targeted and adapted to specific biophysical conditions for improved impact

Genome-wide association and HLA fine-mapping studies identify risk loci and genetic pathways underlying allergic rhinitis

Allergic rhinitis is the most common clinical presentation of allergy, affecting 400 million people worldwide, with increasing incidence in westernized countries1,2. To elucidate the genetic architecture and understand the underlying disease mechanisms, we carried out a meta-analysis of allergic rhinitis in 59,762 cases and 152,358 controls of European ancestry and identified a total of 41 risk loci for allergic rhinitis, including 20 loci not previously associated with allergic rhinitis, which were confirmed in a replication phase of 60,720 cases and 618,527 controls. Functional annotation implicated genes involved in various immune pathways, and fine mapping of the HLA region suggested amino acid variants important for antigen binding. We further performed genome-wide association study (GWAS) analyses of allergic sensitization against inhalant allergens and nonallergic rhinitis, which suggested shared genetic mechanisms across rhinitis-related traits. Future studies of the identified loci and genes might identify novel targets for treatment and prevention of allergic rhinitis

Moose and snowshoe hare competition and a mechanistic explanation from foraging theory

Moose ( Alces alces ) and snowshoe hare ( Lepus americanus ) appear to compete with each other. This was determined using the “natural experiments” of populations found in sympatry and allopatry on islands at Isle Royale National Park, Michigan, and manipulated exclosures. The population densities from these areas are fit to a series of competition models based upon different competitive mechanisms (Schoener 1974a), using non-linear regression techniques. A model of competition for food where the food can be separated into exclusively used and shared categories is found to predict observed densities of moose and hare best. Finally, the competition model's parameters (fraction of food shared and competition coefficients) are shown to agree with values predicted independently from a foraging model.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47750/1/442_2004_Article_BF00396753.pd

Switching Multiple Sclerosis Patients with Breakthrough Disease to Second-Line Therapy

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) patients with breakthrough disease on immunomodulatory drugs are frequently offered to switch to natalizumab or immunosuppressants. The effect of natalizumab monotherapy in patients with breakthrough disease is unknown. METHODS: This is an open-label retrospective cohort study of 993 patients seen at least four times at the University of California San Francisco MS Center, 95 had breakthrough disease on first-line therapy (60 patients switched to natalizumab, 22 to immunosuppressants and 13 declined the switch [non-switchers]). We used Poisson regression adjusted for potential confounders to compare the relapse rate within and across groups before and after the switch. RESULTS: In the within-group analyses, the relapse rate decreased by 70% (95% CI 50,82%; p<0.001) in switchers to natalizumab and by 77% (95% CI 59,87%; p<0.001) in switchers to immunosuppressants; relapse rate in non-switchers did not decrease (6%, p =  0.87). Relative to the reduction among non-switchers, the relapse rate was reduced by 68% among natalizumab switchers (95% CI 19,87%; p = 0.017) and by 76% among the immunosuppressant switchers (95% CI 36,91%; p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Switching to natalizumab or immunosuppressants in patients with breakthrough disease is effective in reducing clinical activity of relapsing MS. The magnitude of the effect and the risk-benefit ratio should be evaluated in randomized clinical trials and prospective cohort studies

Immunogenicity Is Not Improved by Increased Antigen Dose or Booster Dosing of Seasonal Influenza Vaccine in a Randomized Trial of HIV Infected Adults

The risk of poor vaccine immunogenicity and more severe influenza disease in HIV necessitate strategies to improve vaccine efficacy.A randomized, multi-centered, controlled, vaccine trial with three parallel groups was conducted at 12 CIHR Canadian HIV Trials Network sites. Three dosing strategies were used in HIV infected adults (18 to 60 years): two standard doses over 28 days, two double doses over 28 days and a single standard dose of influenza vaccine, administered prior to the 2008 influenza season. A trivalent killed split non-adjuvanted influenza vaccine (Fluviral™) was used. Serum hemagglutinin inhibition (HAI) activity for the three influenza strains in the vaccine was measured to assess immunogenicity.297 of 298 participants received at least one injection. Baseline CD4 (median 470 cells/µL) and HIV RNA (76% of patients with viral load <50 copies/mL) were similar between groups. 89% were on HAART. The overall immunogenicity of influenza vaccine across time points and the three influenza strains assessed was poor (Range HAI ≥ 40 =  31-58%). Double dose plus double dose booster slightly increased the proportion achieving HAI titre doubling from baseline for A/Brisbane and B/Florida at weeks 4, 8 and 20 compared to standard vaccine dose. Increased immunogenicity with increased antigen dose and booster dosing was most apparent in participants with unsuppressed HIV RNA at baseline. None of 8 serious adverse events were thought to be immunization-related.Even with increased antigen dose and booster dosing, non-adjuvanted influenza vaccine immunogenicity is poor in HIV infected individuals. Alternative influenza vaccines are required in this hyporesponsive population.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00764998