The Double Club Evaluation : Research Report

Double Club (DC) is an in-school extension of the Playing for Success (PfS) programme, working with underachieving pupils in Key Stage 3 to improve attainment, particularly in literacy and numeracy. It provides an innovative ‘double experience’ that combines classroom education with coaching in football or another sport. Young people attend at least twice a week in groups of approximately 15. The main aims of this evaluation were to assess the effectiveness of the Double Club programme, to identify good practice and to provide evidence on how best to operationalise DCs in a wider roll out. The first strand of the evaluation presented findings from case-study visits to five DCs. Four of these DCs were selected as examples of ‘good practice’ (all of which were football-related) and the fifth was selected as an example of a DC which based its activities on a sport other then football. The second strand of the evaluation provided an analysis of the impact of DC on pupil attainment, comparing the KS3 attainment of young people who had attended DC with the KS3 attainment of similar young people who had not attended, using a form of statistical analysis called multi-level modelling

Cataract surgery redesign : meeting increasing demand, training, audit and patient-centered care

Objective: The demand for cataract surgery in Fife (a well-defined region in southeast Scotland) was steadily increasing over 15 years. Cataract surgery was therefore being outsourced to meet demand with consequences on list mix, training needs, patient experience and staff morale. We aimed to redesign our services to meet local demand, retain a patient-centered service and continue to fulfil training needs. Methods: We quantified cataract surgery delivery over an 18-month period: before, during and after redesign of services. We studied numbers of operations, trainee cases and number of outsourced cases. We also considered the economic implications of the redesign. Results: We studied three periods (each of six months duration): before redesign (BR), redesign period (RP) and post-redesign (PR). Data were collected on total operation numbers, number of cases performed by trainees, and numbers performed out with normal working hours (weekend lists) and external providers. An economic analysis examined the cost of outsourcing cataracts during BR and RP and the costs of the redesign, including building, equipment and additional nursing staff. Conclusion: Regional fulfilment of cataract surgery provision remains a continuous challenge within the NHS. We show that with minimal investment, smart redesign process and collaborative working, increased local provision is possible while fulfilling trainee needs and achieving the necessary clinical audits and national standards.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Prediction of retinopathy progression using deep learning on retinal images within the Scottish screening programme

Background/AimsNational guidelines of many countries set screening intervals for diabetic retinopathy (DR) based on grading of the last screening retinal images. We explore the potential of deep learning (DL) on images to predict progression to referable DR beyond DR grading, and the potential impact on assigned screening intervals, within the Scottish screening programme.MethodsWe consider 21346 and 247233 people with T1DM and T2DM respectively each contributing on average 4.8 and 4.4 screening intervals of which 1339 and 4675 intervals concluded with a referable screening episode. Information extracted from fundus images using DL were used to predict referable status at the end of interval and its predictive value in comparison to screening-assigned DR grade was assessed.ResultsThe DL predictor increased the AUC in comparison to a predictor using current DR grades from 0.809 to 0.87 for T1DM and from 0.825 to 0.87 for T2DM. Expected sojourn time – the time from becoming referable to being rescreened - was found to be 3.4 (T1DM) and 2.7 (T2DM) weeks less for a DL-derived policy compared to the current recall policy.ConclusionsWe showed that, compared to using the current retinopathy grade, DL of fundus images significantly improves the prediction of incident referable retinopathy before the next screening episode. This can impact screening recall interval policy positively, for example, by reducing the expected time with referable disease for a fixed workload - which we show as an exemplar. Additionally, it could be used to optimise workload for a fixed sojourn time

Use of personalised risk-based screening schedules to optimise workload and sojourn time in screening programmes for diabetic retinopathy:A retrospective cohort study

Background: National guidelines in most countries set screening intervals for diabetic retinopathy (DR) that are insufficiently informed by contemporary incidence rates. This has unspecified implications for interval disease risks (IDs) of referable DR, disparities in ID between groups or individuals, time spent in referable state before screening (sojourn time), and workload. We explored the effect of various screening schedules on these outcomes and developed an open-access interactive policy tool informed by contemporary DR incidence rates. Methods and findings: Scottish Diabetic Retinopathy Screening Programme data from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2016 were linked to diabetes registry data. This yielded 128,606 screening examinations in people with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and 1,384,360 examinations in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Among those with T1D, 47% of those without and 44% of those with referable DR were female, mean diabetes duration was 21 and 23 years, respectively, and mean age was 26 and 24 years, respectively. Among those with T2D, 44% of those without and 42% of those with referable DR were female, mean diabetes duration was 9 and 14 years, respectively, and mean age was 58 and 52 years, respectively. Individual probability of developing referable DR was estimated using a generalised linear model and was used to calculate the intervals needed to achieve various IDs across prior grade strata, or at the individual level, and the resultant workload and sojourn time. The current policy in Scotland—screening people with no or mild disease annually and moderate disease every 6 months—yielded large differences in ID by prior grade (13.2%, 3.6%, and 0.6% annually for moderate, mild, and no prior DR strata, respectively, in T1D) and diabetes type (2.4% in T1D and 0.6% in T2D overall). Maintaining these overall risks but equalising risk across prior grade strata would require extremely short intervals in those with moderate DR (1–2 months) and very long intervals in those with no prior DR (35–47 months), with little change in workload or average sojourn time. Changing to intervals of 12, 9, and 3 months in T1D and to 24, 9, and 3 months in T2D for no, mild, and moderate DR strata, respectively, would substantially reduce disparity in ID across strata and between diabetes types whilst reducing workload by 26% and increasing sojourn time by 2.3 months. Including clinical risk factor data gave a small but significant increment in prediction of referable DR beyond grade (increase in C-statistic of 0.013 in T1D and 0.016 in T2D, both p < 0.001). However, using this model to derive personalised intervals did not have substantial workload or sojourn time benefits over stratum-specific intervals. The main limitation is that the results are pertinent only to countries that share broadly similar rates of retinal disease and risk factor distributions to Scotland. Conclusions: Changing current policies could reduce disparities in ID and achieve substantial reductions in workload within the range of IDs likely to be deemed acceptable. Our tool s

A methodological investigation of the Intermodal Preferential Looking paradigm: Methods of analyses, picture selection and data rejection criteria

The Intermodal Preferential Looking paradigm provides a sensitive measure of a child's online word comprehension. To complement existing recommendations (Fernald, Zangl, Portillo, & Marchman, 2008), the present study evaluates the impact of experimental noise generated by two aspects of the visual stimuli on the robustness of familiar word recognition with and without mispronunciations: the presence of a central fixation point and the level of visual noise in the pictures (as measured by luminance saliency). Twenty-month-old infants were presented with a classic word recognition IPL procedure in 3 conditions: without a fixation stimulus (No Fixation - noisiest condition), with a fixation stimulus before trial onset (Fixation, intermediate), and with a fixation stimulus, a neutral background and equally salient images (Fixation Plus - least noisy). Data were systematically analyzed considering a range of data selection criteria and dependent variables (proportion of looking time towards the target, longest look, and time-course analysis). Critically, the expected pronunciation and naming interaction was only found in the Fixation Plus condition. We discuss the impact of data selection criteria and the dependent variable choice on the modulation of these effects across the different conditions

Improving the cost-effectiveness of photographic screening for diabetic macular oedema: a prospective, multi-centre, UK study

Background/aims: Retinal screening programmes in England and Scotland have similar photographic grading schemes for background (non-proliferative) and proliferative diabetic retinopathy, but diverge over maculopathy. We looked for the most cost-effective method of identifying diabetic macular oedema from retinal photographs including the role of automated grading and optical coherence tomography, a technology that directly visualises oedema. Methods: Patients from seven UK centres were recruited. The following features in at least one eye were required for enrolment: microaneurysms/dot haemorrhages or blot haemorrhages within one disc diameter, or exudates within one or two disc diameters of the centre of the macula. Subjects had optical coherence tomography and digital photography. Manual and automated grading schemes were evaluated. Costs and QALYs were modelled using microsimulation techniques. Results: 3540 patients were recruited, 3170 were analysed. For diabetic macular oedema, England’s scheme had a sensitivity of 72.6% and specificity of 66.8%; Scotland’s had a sensitivity of 59.5% and specificity of 79.0%. When applying a ceiling ratio of £30 000 per quality adjusted life years (QALY) gained, Scotland’s scheme was preferred. Assuming automated grading could be implemented without increasing grading costs, automation produced a greater number of QALYS for a lower cost than England’s scheme, but was not cost effective, at the study’s operating point, compared with Scotland’s. The addition of optical coherence tomography, to each scheme, resulted in cost savings without reducing health benefits. Conclusions: Retinal screening programmes in the UK should reconsider the screening pathway to make best use of existing and new technologies

Evaluation of a new model of care for people with complications of diabetic retinopathy : The EMERALD Study

Objectives The increasing diabetes prevalence and advent of new treatments for its major visual-threatening complications (diabetic macular edema [DME] and proliferative diabetic retinopathy [PDR]), which require frequent and life-long follow-up, have markedly increased hospital demands. Resulting delays in the evaluation/treatment of patients are leading to sight loss. Strategies to increase capacity of medical retina clinics are urgently needed. EMERALD tested diagnostic accuracy, acceptability and costs of a new health care pathway for people with previously treated DME/PDR. Design Prospective, multicentric, case-referent, cross-sectional, diagnostic accuracy study, undertaken in 13 hospitals in the United Kingdom. Participants Adults with type 1 or 2 diabetes and previously successfully treated DME/PDR who, at the time of enrolment, had active or inactive disease. Methods A new health care pathway entailing multimodal imaging (spectral domain optical coherence tomography [SD-OCT] for DME, and 7-field Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study [ETDRS] and ultra-wide-field fundus images [UWF] for PDR) interpreted by trained non-medical staff (ophthalmic graders) to detect re-activation of disease was compared with the current standard care (ophthalmologists face-to-face examination). Main outcome measures Primary outcome: sensitivity of the new pathway. Secondary outcomes: specificity; agreement between pathways; costs; acceptability; proportions requiring subsequent ophthalmologist assessment, unable to undergo imaging, with inadequate images/indeterminate findings. Results The new pathway had sensitivity of 97% (95% confidence interval [CI] 92-99%) and specificity of 31% (95% CI 23-40%) to detect DME. For PDR, sensitivity and specificity using 7-field ETDRS (85%, 95% CI 77-91%; 48%; 95% CI 41-56%, respectively) or UWF (83%, 95% CI 75-89%; 54%; 95% CI 46-61%, respectively) were comparable. For detection of high risk PDR sensitivity and specificity were higher when using UWF images (87%, 95% CI 78-93%; 49% 95% CI 42-56%, respectively for UWF, versus 80%, 95% CI 69-88%; 40% CI 34-47%, respectively, for 7-field ETDRS). Participants preferred ophthalmologist’s assessments; in their absence, wished immediate feedback by graders, maintaining periodic ophthalmologist evaluations. When compared with the current standard care, the new pathway could save £1,390/100 DME visits and between £461-£1,189/100 PDR visits. Conclusion The new ophthalmic grader pathway has acceptable sensitivity and would release resources. Users’ suggestions should guide implementatio