Partition MCMC for inference on acyclic digraphs

Acyclic digraphs are the underlying representation of Bayesian networks, a widely used class of probabilistic graphical models. Learning the underlying graph from data is a way of gaining insights about the structural properties of a domain. Structure learning forms one of the inference challenges of statistical graphical models. MCMC methods, notably structure MCMC, to sample graphs from the posterior distribution given the data are probably the only viable option for Bayesian model averaging. Score modularity and restrictions on the number of parents of each node allow the graphs to be grouped into larger collections, which can be scored as a whole to improve the chain's convergence. Current examples of algorithms taking advantage of grouping are the biased order MCMC, which acts on the alternative space of permuted triangular matrices, and non ergodic edge reversal moves. Here we propose a novel algorithm, which employs the underlying combinatorial structure of DAGs to define a new grouping. As a result convergence is improved compared to structure MCMC, while still retaining the property of producing an unbiased sample. Finally the method can be combined with edge reversal moves to improve the sampler further.Comment: Revised version. 34 pages, 16 figures. R code available at https://github.com/annlia/partitionMCM

Learning and Acting in Peripersonal Space: Moving, Reaching, and Grasping

The young infant explores its body, its sensorimotor system, and the immediately accessible parts of its environment, over the course of a few months creating a model of peripersonal space useful for reaching and grasping objects around it. Drawing on constraints from the empirical literature on infant behavior, we present a preliminary computational model of this learning process, implemented and evaluated on a physical robot. The learning agent explores the relationship between the configuration space of the arm, sensing joint angles through proprioception, and its visual perceptions of the hand and grippers. The resulting knowledge is represented as the peripersonal space (PPS) graph, where nodes represent states of the arm, edges represent safe movements, and paths represent safe trajectories from one pose to another. In our model, the learning process is driven by intrinsic motivation. When repeatedly performing an action, the agent learns the typical result, but also detects unusual outcomes, and is motivated to learn how to make those unusual results reliable. Arm motions typically leave the static background unchanged, but occasionally bump an object, changing its static position. The reach action is learned as a reliable way to bump and move an object in the environment. Similarly, once a reliable reach action is learned, it typically makes a quasi-static change in the environment, moving an object from one static position to another. The unusual outcome is that the object is accidentally grasped (thanks to the innate Palmar reflex), and thereafter moves dynamically with the hand. Learning to make grasps reliable is more complex than for reaches, but we demonstrate significant progress. Our current results are steps toward autonomous sensorimotor learning of motion, reaching, and grasping in peripersonal space, based on unguided exploration and intrinsic motivation.Comment: 35 pages, 13 figure

The semiclassical relation between open trajectories and periodic orbits for the Wigner time delay

The Wigner time delay of a classically chaotic quantum system can be expressed semiclassically either in terms of pairs of scattering trajectories that enter and leave the system or in terms of the periodic orbits trapped inside the system. We show how these two pictures are related on the semiclassical level. We start from the semiclassical formula with the scattering trajectories and derive from it all terms in the periodic orbit formula for the time delay. The main ingredient in this calculation is a new type of correlation between scattering trajectories which is due to trajectories that approach the trapped periodic orbits closely. The equivalence between the two pictures is also demonstrated by considering correlation functions of the time delay. A corresponding calculation for the conductance gives no periodic orbit contributions in leading order.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figure

Sequential Monte Carlo EM for multivariate probit models

Multivariate probit models (MPM) have the appealing feature of capturing some of the dependence structure between the components of multidimensional binary responses. The key for the dependence modelling is the covariance matrix of an underlying latent multivariate Gaussian. Most approaches to MLE in multivariate probit regression rely on MCEM algorithms to avoid computationally intensive evaluations of multivariate normal orthant probabilities. As an alternative to the much used Gibbs sampler a new SMC sampler for truncated multivariate normals is proposed. The algorithm proceeds in two stages where samples are first drawn from truncated multivariate Student $t$ distributions and then further evolved towards a Gaussian. The sampler is then embedded in a MCEM algorithm. The sequential nature of SMC methods can be exploited to design a fully sequential version of the EM, where the samples are simply updated from one iteration to the next rather than resampled from scratch. Recycling the samples in this manner significantly reduces the computational cost. An alternative view of the standard conditional maximisation step provides the basis for an iterative procedure to fully perform the maximisation needed in the EM algorithm. The identifiability of MPM is also thoroughly discussed. In particular, the likelihood invariance can be embedded in the EM algorithm to ensure that constrained and unconstrained maximisation are equivalent. A simple iterative procedure is then derived for either maximisation which takes effectively no computational time. The method is validated by applying it to the widely analysed Six Cities dataset and on a higher dimensional simulated example. Previous approaches to the Six Cities overly restrict the parameter space but, by considering the correct invariance, the maximum likelihood is quite naturally improved when treating the full unrestricted model.Comment: 26 pages, 2 figures. In press, Computational Statistics & Data Analysi