Water level variability and trends in Lake Constance in the light of the 1999 centennial flood

AbstractThe extreme flood of Lake Constance in 1999 focused attention on the variability of annual lake levels. The year 1999 not only brought one of the highest floods of the last 180 years but also one of the earliest in the season. The 1999 extreme event was caused by heavy rainfall in the alpine and pre-alpine regions. The influence of precipitation in the two distinct regional catchments on lake level variations can be quantified by correlation analysis. The long-term variations in lake level and precipitation show similar patterns. This is seen through the use of spectral analysis, which gives similar bands of spectral densities for precipitation and lake level time series. It can be concluded from the comparison of these results with the analysis of climate change patterns in northern Europe, i.e. the index of the North Atlantic Oscillation, that the regional effects on lake level variations are more pronounced than those of global climate change

Seasonal and interannual variability of cladoceran communities in two peri-alpine lakes: uncoupled response to the 2003 heat wave

Seasonal and interannual dynamics of cladoceran species were analyzed during the period 1995–2003 in two deep peri-alpine lakes morphologically different but subjected to similar regional climatic forcing. The seasonal succession of cladoceran species was characterized and the impact of extreme climatic events on the annual pattern of species succession was assessed. Using a multivariate method, we show that the cladoceran species display marked seasonality patterns that differed in the two lakes. The differences observed between the lakes were driven by their trophic state, the plankton species composition and the abundance of predators. We show that the sensitivity of the annual pattern of species succession to extreme weather changes, illustrated by the 2003 heat wave, differs markedly in these two lakes. In Lake Annecy, the annual pattern of cladoceran succession observed in 2003 is not different from the one usually observed. In contrast, in Lake Geneva, the annual pattern recorded in 2003 is unusual and characterized by the maintenance of herbivorous cladocera during summer. These findings underline the need to consider the morphology of lakes and trophic state in the assessment of ecological responses to global warming. Our results contribute to the debate about the predictability of the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems, and their extrapolation from one site to another

Antipredator responses of three Daphnia species within the D. longispina species complex to two invertebrate predators

Prey communities in natural environments face a diverse array of predators with distinct hunting techniques. However, most studies have focused only on the interactions between a single prey species and one or more predators and typically only one of many induced defense traits, which limits our understanding of the broader effects of predators on prey communities. In this study, we conducted a common garden experiment using five clones each of three Daphnia species (D. cucullata, D. galeata, and D. longispina) from the D. longispina species complex to investigate the plasticity of predator-induced defenses in response to two predators in a community ecology setting. Five clones from each species were subjected to predator kairomones from two closely related invertebrate predators that are common in several European lakes, Bythotrephes longimanus or Leptodora kindtii for a duration of 10 days, and the morphological traits of body size, head size, spina size, and the presence of spinules on the ventral and dorsal carapace margins were measured. We show that among the species within this species complex there are different antipredator reactions to the invertebrate predators. The induced responses exhibited were species, trait, and predator-specific. Notably, D. galeata and D. cucullata developed distinctive helmets as defensive mechanisms, while microdefenses were induced in D. galeata and D. longispina, but not in D. cucullata. This demonstrates that the expression of micro- and macrodefenses across species was unrelated, highlighting the possible independent evolution of microstructures as defensive modules in Daphnia's antipredator strategies. This study is the first to document both micro- and macrodefensive phenotypic plasticity in three co-occurring Daphnia species within the D. longispina species complex. The differences in inducible defenses may have a substantial impact on how these three species cohabit with Bythotrephes and Leptodora

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur

Comparative Assessment of Climate Change Scenarios Based on Aquatic Food Web Modeling

In the years 2004 and 2005, we collected samples of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and macroinvertebrates in an artificial small pond in Budapest (Hungary). We set up a simulation model predicting the abundances of the cyclopoids, Eudiaptomus zachariasi, and Ischnura pumilio by considering only temperature and the abundance of population of the previous day. Phytoplankton abundance was simulated by considering not only temperature but the abundances of the three mentioned groups. When we ran the model with the data series of internationally accepted climate change scenarios, the different outcomes were discussed. Comparative assessment of the alternative climate change scenarios was also carried out with statistical methods

Interactions between Predation and Resources Shape Zooplankton Population Dynamics

Identifying the relative importance of predation and resources in population dynamics has a long tradition in ecology, while interactions between them have been studied less intensively. In order to disentangle the effects of predation by juvenile fish, algal resource availability and their interactive effects on zooplankton population dynamics, we conducted an enclosure experiment where zooplankton were exposed to a gradient of predation of roach (Rutilus rutilus) at different algal concentrations. We show that zooplankton populations collapse under high predation pressure irrespective of resource availability, confirming that juvenile fish are able to severely reduce zooplankton prey when occurring in high densities. At lower predation pressure, however, the effect of predation depended on algal resource availability since high algal resource supply buffered against predation. Hence, we suggest that interactions between mass-hatching of fish, and the strong fluctuations in algal resources in spring have the potential to regulate zooplankton population dynamics. In a broader perspective, increasing spring temperatures due to global warming will most likely affect the timing of these processes and have consequences for the spring and summer zooplankton dynamics

Climate change and freshwater zooplankton: what does it boil down to?

Recently, major advances in the climate–zooplankton interface have been made some of which appeared to receive much attention in a broader audience of ecologists as well. In contrast to the marine realm, however, we still lack a more holistic summary of recent knowledge in freshwater. We discuss climate change-related variation in physical and biological attributes of lakes and running waters, high-order ecological functions, and subsequent alteration in zooplankton abundance, phenology, distribution, body size, community structure, life history parameters, and behavior by focusing on community level responses. The adequacy of large-scale climatic indices in ecology has received considerable support and provided a framework for the interpretation of community and species level responses in freshwater zooplankton. Modeling perspectives deserve particular consideration, since this promising stream of ecology is of particular applicability in climate change research owing to the inherently predictive nature of this field. In the future, ecologists should expand their research on species beyond daphnids, should address questions as to how different intrinsic and extrinsic drivers interact, should move beyond correlative approaches toward more mechanistic explanations, and last but not least, should facilitate transfer of biological data both across space and time

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe

In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade−1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice-covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade−1) to ice-free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade−1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes.Peer reviewe