Interaction effects on common measures of sensitivity:Choice of measure, type I error, and power

Here we use simulation to assess previously unaddressed problems in the assessment of statistical interactions in detection and recognition tasks. The proportion of hits and false-alarms made by an observer on such tasks is affected by both their sensitivity and bias, and numerous measures have been developed to separate out these two factors. Each of these measures makes different assumptions regarding the underlying process and different predictions as to how false-alarm and hit rates should covary. Previous simulations have shown that choice of an inappropriate measure can lead to inflated type I error rates, or reduced power, for main effects, provided there are differences in response bias between the conditions being compared. Interaction effects pose a particular problem in this context. We show that spurious interaction effects in analysis of variance can be produced, or true interactions missed, even in the absence of variation in bias. Additional simulations show that variation in bias complicates patterns of type I error and power further. This under-appreciated fact has the potential to greatly distort the assessment of interactions in detection and recognition experiments. We discuss steps researchers can take to mitigate their chances of making an error

A survey for variable young stars with small telescopes: II - mapping a protoplanetary disc with stable structures at 0.15 au

The HOYS citizen science project conducts long term, multifilter, high cadence monitoring of large YSO samples with a wide variety of professional and amateur telescopes. We present the analysis of the light curve of V1490 Cyg in the Pelican Nebula. We show that colour terms in the diverse photometric data can be calibrated out to achieve a median photometric accuracy of 0.02 mag in broadband filters, allowing detailed investigations into a variety of variability amplitudes over timescales from hours to several years. Using Gaia DR2 we estimate the distance to the Pelican Nebula to be 870 +70 −55 pc. V1490 Cyg is a quasi-periodic dipper with a period of 31.447 ± 0.011 d. The obscuring dust has homogeneous properties, and grains larger than those typical in the ISM. Larger variability on short timescales is observed in U and Rc−Hα, with U-amplitudes reaching 3 mag on timescales of hours, indicating the source is accreting. The Hα equivalent width and NIR/MIR colours place V1490 Cyg between CTTS/WTTS and transition disk objects. The material responsible for the dipping is located in a warped inner disk, about 0.15 AU from the star. This mass reservoir can be filled and emptied on time scales shorter than the period at a rate of up to 10−10 M�/yr, consistent with low levels of accretion in other T Tauri stars. Most likely the warp at this separation from the star is induced by a protoplanet in the inner accretion disk. However, we cannot fully rule out the possibility of an AA Tau-like warp, or occultations by the Hill sphere around a forming planet

The First Post-Kepler Brightness Dips of KIC 8462852

We present a photometric detection of the first brightness dips of the unique variable star KIC 8462852 since the end of the Kepler space mission in 2013 May. Our regular photometric surveillance started in October 2015, and a sequence of dipping began in 2017 May continuing on through the end of 2017, when the star was no longer visible from Earth. We distinguish four main 1-2.5% dips, named "Elsie," "Celeste," "Skara Brae," and "Angkor", which persist on timescales from several days to weeks. Our main results so far are: (i) there are no apparent changes of the stellar spectrum or polarization during the dips; (ii) the multiband photometry of the dips shows differential reddening favoring non-grey extinction. Therefore, our data are inconsistent with dip models that invoke optically thick material, but rather they are in-line with predictions for an occulter consisting primarily of ordinary dust, where much of the material must be optically thin with a size scale <<1um, and may also be consistent with models invoking variations intrinsic to the stellar photosphere. Notably, our data do not place constraints on the color of the longer-term "secular" dimming, which may be caused by independent processes, or probe different regimes of a single process

A survey for variable young stars with small telescopes: VI — Analysis of the outbursting Be stars NSW284, Gaia19eyy, and VES263

This paper is one in a series reporting results from small telescope observations of variable young stars. Here, we study the repeating outbursts of three likely Be stars based on long-term optical, near-infrared, and mid-infrared photometry for all three objects, along with follow-up spectra for two of the three. The sources are characterised as rare, truly regularly outbursting Be stars. We interpret the photometric data within a framework for modelling light curve morphology, and find that the models correctly predict the burst shapes, including their larger amplitudes and later peaks towards longer wavelengths. We are thus able to infer the start and end times of mass loading into the circumstellar disks of these stars. The disk sizes are typically 3 – 6 times the areas of the central star. The disk temperatures are ∼ 40 %, and the disk luminosities are ∼ 10 % of those of the central Be star, respectively. The available spectroscopy is consistent with inside-out evolution of the disk. Higher excitation lines have larger velocity widths in their double-horned shaped emission profiles. Our observations and analysis support the decretion disk model for outbursting Be stars