Dynamics of insurgent innovation : how Hezbollah and other non-state actors develop new capabilities

Few issues are more important to security-studies scholars than understanding how violent non-state groups innovate. To shed new light on this subject, we examine Hezbollah’s innovations and the underlying processes that produced them. Based on this case, the most successful violent non-state groups are arguably those that systematically pursue incremental innovation. Although less dramatic than their discontinuous counterparts, a commitment to steadily improve an organizations' tactics and techniques can have dramatic effects. Indeed, even Hezbollah’s remarkable performance during the 2006 Lebanon War is attributable to the perfection of techniques utilized since the organization's inception. While innovations were incremental in character, a bottom-up process of learning and experimentation by field commanders was critical to generating most of these innovations. If generalizable to other violent non-state actors, these findings suggest that the most formidable insurgent and terrorist groups will actually be those that relentlessly pursue incremental innovations in a bottom-up fashion.PostprintPeer reviewe

Variable response in alpine tree-ring stable isotopes following volcanic eruptions in the tropics and iceland

The importance of the stable isotopes in tree rings for the study of the climate variations caused by volcanic eruptions is still unclear. We studied δ18O, δD, δ13C stable isotopes of larch and cembran pine cellulose around four major eruptions with annual resolution, along with a superposed epoch analysis of 34 eruptions with 5-year resolution. Initial analysis of the tropical Tambora (1815 CE) and Samalas (1257 CE) eruptions showed a post-eruption decrease in δ18O values attributed to post-volcanic cooling and increased summer precipitation in Southern Europe, as documented by observations and climate simulations. The post-volcanic cooling was captured by the δD of speleothem fluid inclusion. The δ18O decrease was also observed in the analysis of 34 major tropical eruptions over the last 2000 years. In contrast, the eruptions of c. 750, 756, and 764 CE attributed to Icelandic volcanoes left no significant responses in the cellulose isotopes. Further analysis of all major Icelandic eruptions in the last 2000 years showed no consistent isotopic fingerprints, with the exception of lower post-volcanic δ13C values in larch. In summary, the δ18O values of cellulose can provide relevant information on climatic and hydroclimatic variations following major tropical volcanic eruptions, even when using the 5-year resolution wood samples of the Alpine Tree-Ring Isotope Record database

The Relationship of Left Ventricular Trabeculation to Ventricular Function and Structure Over a 9.5-Year Follow-Up The MESA Study

Left ventricular (LV) trabeculation is highly variable among individuals and is increased in some diseases (e.g., congenital heart disease or cardiomyopathies), but its significance in population-representative individuals is unknown

Gender-related differences in patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndromes: clinical presentation, biomarkers and diagnosis

Objectives: Gender differences in patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndromes (ACS) have not yet been fully characterized. The aim of this study was to assess gender-related disparities in clinical profiles, biomarkers and diagnoses of patients with suspected ACS. Methods: This single-centre, prospective cohort study included 377 consecutive patients presenting with suspected ACS to the emergency department. Suspected ACS was defined as a request for conventional troponin T (c-cTnT) measurements on clinical grounds. Results: Women were older than men (p = 0.004), and had a lower prevalence of known coronary artery and peripheral vascular disease (p < 0.05). c-cTnT was positive in 8% of female and in 14% of male patients (p = 0.16), TIMI risk score and cardiac biomarkers including c-cTnT, hs-cTnT, myoglobin, creatine kinase, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, myeloid-related protein 8/14 and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A were lower in women (p < 0.05). Women were less frequently diagnosed with ACS (30 vs. 51%), and were not referred for urgent coronary angiography as often as men (p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, female gender was associated with a lower referral for coronary angiography (HR 0.41, 95% CI 0.23-0.78, p = 0.006). Conclusions: In patients with suspected ACS, women presented with different biomarker profiles, and were less often diagnosed with ACS and referred to coronary angiography

A simple coronary CT angiography-based jeopardy score for the identification of extensive coronary artery disease: Validation against invasive coronary angiography

PURPOSE The invasive British Cardiovascular Intervention Society Jeopardy Score (iBCIS-JS) is a simple angiographic scoring system, enabling quantification of the extent of jeopardized myocardium related to clinically significant coronary artery disease (CAD). The purpose of this study was to develop and validate the coronary CT angiography-based BCIS-JS (CT-BCIS-JS) against the iBCIS-JS in patients with suspected or stable CAD. MATERIALS AND METHODS Patients who underwent coronary CT angiography followed by invasive coronary angiography, within 90 days were retrospectively included. CT-BCIS-JS and iBCIS-JS were calculated, with a score ≥ 6 indicating extensive CAD. Correlation between the CT-BCIS-JS and iBCIS-JS was searched for using Spearman's coefficient, and agreement with weighted Kappa (κ) analyses. RESULTS A total of 122 patients were included. There were 102 men and 20 women with a median age of 62 years (Q1, Q3: 54, 68; age range: 19-83 years). No differences in median CT-BCIS-JS (4; Q1, Q3: 0, 8) and median iBCIS-JS (4; Q1, Q3: 0, 8) were found (P = 0.18). Extensive CAD was identified in 53 (43.4%) and 52 (42.6%) patients using CT-BCIS-JS and iBCIS-JS, respectively (P = 0.88). CT-based and iBCIS-JS showed excellent correlation (r = 0.98; P < 0.001) and almost perfect agreement (κ = 0.93; 95% confidence interval: 0.90-0.97). Agreement for identification of an iBCIS-JS ≥ 6 was almost perfect (κ = 0.94; 95 % confidence interval: 0.87-0.99). CONCLUSION The CT-BCIS-JS represents a feasible, and accurate method for quantification of CAD, with capabilities not different from those of iBCIS-JS. It enables simple, non-invasive identification of patients with anatomically extensive CAD

Imaging of heart disease in women: review and case presentation

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) remain the leading cause of mortality worldwide. Although major diagnostic and therapeutic advances have significantly improved the prognosis of patients with CVD in the past decades, these advances have less benefited women than age-matched men. Noninvasive cardiac imaging plays a key role in the diagnosis of CVD. Despite shared imaging features and strategies between both sexes, there are critical sex disparities that warrant careful consideration, related to the selection of the most suited imaging techniques, to technical limitations, and to specific diseases that are overrepresented in the female population. Taking these sex disparities into consideration holds promise to improve management and alleviate the burden of CVD in women. In this review, we summarize the specific features of cardiac imaging in four of the most common presentations of CVD in the female population including coronary artery disease, heart failure, pregnancy complications, and heart disease in oncology, thereby highlighting contemporary strengths and limitations. We further propose diagnostic algorithms tailored to women that might help in selecting the most appropriate imaging modality

Biomass-modulated fire dynamics during the last glacial-interglacial transition at the central pyrenees (Spain)

Understanding long-term fire ecology is essential for current day interpretation of ecosystem fire responses. However palaeoecology of fire is still poorly understood, especially at high-altitude mountain environments, despite the fact that these are fire-sensitive ecosystems and their resilience might be affected by changing fire regimes. We reconstruct wildfire occurrence since the Lateglacial (14.7. cal. ka BP) to the Mid-Holocene (6. cal. ka BP) and investigate the climate-fuel-fire relationships in a sedimentary sequence located at the treeline in the Central Spanish Pyrenees. Pollen, macro- and micro-charcoal were analysed for the identification of fire events (FE) in order to detect vegetation post-fire response and to define biomass-fire interactions. mean fire intervals (mfi) reduced since the Lateglacial, peaking at 9-7.7. cal. ka BP while from 7.7 to 6. cal. ka BP no fire is recorded. We hypothesise that Early Holocene maximum summer insolation, as climate forcing, and mesophyte forest expansion, as a fuel-creating factor, were responsible for accelerating fire occurrence in the Central Pyrenees treeline. We also found that fire had long-lasting negative effects on most of the treeline plant communities and that forest contraction from 7.7. cal. ka BP is likely linked to the ecosystem's threshold response to high fire frequencies.This research has been funded by the projects DINAMO (CGL2009-07992) (funding EGPF — grant ref. BES-2010-038593 and MSC), DINAMO2 (CGL2012-33063), ARAFIRE (2012 GA LC 064), GRACCIE-CONSOLIDER (CSD2007-00067). GGR was funded by the Juan de la Cierva Program (grant ref. JCI2009-04345) and JAE-Doc CSIC Program, LLM was supported by a postdoctoral MINT fellowship funded by the Institute for the Environment (Brunel University), AMC is a Ramón y Cajal fellow (ref: RYC-2008-02431), APS holds a grant funded by the Aragon Government (ref. 17030G/5423/480072/14003) and JAE holds a grant funded by the Basque Country Government (BFI-2010-5)

An acoustic emission landslide early warning system for communities in low-income and middle-income countries

This is an Open Access Article. It is published by Springer under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported Licence (CC BY). Full details of this licence are available at: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Early warning systems for slope instability are needed to alert users of accelerating slope deformation behaviour, enable evacuation of vulnerable people, and conduct timely repair and maintenance of critical infrastructure. Communities exposed to landslide risk in low- and middle-income countries seldom currently instrument and monitor slopes to provide a warning of instability because existing techniques are complex and prohibitively expensive. Research and field trials have demonstrated conclusively that acoustic emission (AE) monitoring can be an effective approach to detect accelerating slope movements and to subsequently communicate warnings to users. The objective of this study was to develop and assess a simple, robust, low-cost AE monitoring system to warn of incipient landslides, which can be widely deployed and operated by communities globally to help protect vulnerable people. This paper describes a novel AE measurement sensor that has been designed and developed with the cost constrained to a few hundred dollars (US). Results are presented from physical model experiments that demonstrate performance of the AE system in measuring accelerating deformation behaviour, with quantifiable relationships between AE and displacement rates. Exceedance of a pre-determined trigger level of AE can be used to communicate an alarm to users in order to alert them of a slope failure. Use of this EWS approach by communities worldwide would reduce the number of fatalities caused by landslides