Advanced Remote Sensing Precipitation Input for Improved Runoff Simulation : Local to regional scale modelling

Accurate precipitation data are crucial for hydrological modelling and rainwater runoff management. Precipitation variability exists through a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and cannot be captured well using sparse rain gauge networks. This limitation is further emphasised for urban and mountainous catchments, especially under global warming, causing an increased frequency of extreme events. Recent advances in remote sensing (RS) techniques make monitoring precipitation possible over larger areas at more regular resolutions than conventional rain gauge networks. The RS data can be biased mainly due to the indirect estimations prone to multiple error sources and temporally discrete observations. The wealth of spatiotemporal precipitation data by RS, however, calls for developing data-driven solutions for both the bias correction and hydrological modelling that, in turn, requires new procedures to assure generalization of the existing methods. The present dissertation comprises a comprehensive summary followed by five appended papers, attempting to evaluate quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE) by state-of-the-art instruments/products for local and regional hydrological applications. Accordingly, two recently installed dual polarimetric doppler X-band weather radars (X-WRs) in southern Sweden and multiple Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) products in Iran were studied at the relevant scales for urban hydrology (1–5-min and sub-km) and large water supply river–reservoir system operation (daily-monthly and 0.1°), respectively. The validation against rain gauge observations (Paper I and II) showed a significant dependency of the X-WR and GPM precipitation errors on the radial distance and regional precipitation pattern, respectively. Taking observations from local tipping bucket rain gauges at the 1–30-km ranges as a reference, the apparent problems with a single X-WR is related to the attenuation during heavy rains and overshooting (at higher elevation angle scans). An internationally bias-corrected GPM product called GPM-IMERG-Final shows a generally good correlation to synoptic observations of over 300 rain gauges in Iran except for extreme observations that are much better predicted by the GPM-IMERG Late product during spring, summer, and autumn seasons. To leverage the wealth of spatiotemporally complete and validated precipitation data for hydrological modelling, two novel data-driven procedures using artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed. As in Paper III, the formulation of the new ANN input variables, namely, ECOVs and CCOVs, representing the event- and catchment-specific areal precipitation coverage ratios, improve monthly runoff estimations in all the studied sub-catchments of the Karkheh River basin (KRB) in the mountainous semi-arid climate of western Iran. Merging the doppler and dual-polarization data in the overlapping coverage of the two XWRs (Paper IV) via an ANN-based QPE improves rainfall detection and accuracy. ANN-assisted estimation of rainfall quantiles, compared to the merging with an empirically based regression model, also shows better results especially related to the extreme 5-min data. Finally, Paper V describes the impact of human activities such as agricultural developments that can equally affect the runoff variation. This fact is considered in Paper III by including MODIS Terra products as additional inputs

The structure of attraction in the family life cycle, emphasizing the concept of love among married women

Family, in its life cycle, is associated with changing roles, especially for couples. Compatibility with these changes has a significant effect on the attractive relationships between couples. The present paper aimed to investigate the gravity structure (love-based relationships) in the family life cycle and the effect of contextual variables (such as employment, education level, social capital of the family, and socioeconomic status) on it. Data collecting tool was a Researcher-made questionnaire on love. The statistical population of this study were estimated to be 13161 married women in Gonabad according to the 1995 census. The cluster sampling method was used and the participants were 510 individuals. The results showed the variety of love quality at different stages of family life cycle. In other words, the mean of love quality reduces in the first five steps of the family life cycle by a steady downward trend from 5.59 to 4.20, and then in the final stage of the "empty nest" it increases to 4.38. It also varied only with the arrival of family social capital as contextual variable. Therefore, it can be said that the arising problems from the birth and the growth of children is accompanied by weakening couples' romance. Although social capital can partly mitigates this negative relationship

A Comparative Study of Liability Resulting from Future Loss in Jurisprudence and Law of Iran with France

Undoubtedly, the purpose of establishing the rules of civil liability is to compensate for the loss. In other words and from a technical point of view, a loss must be caused to compensate for it, responsibility should be created, and religion should be responsible. In fact, the occurrence and survival of civil liability depend on the current existence of damage, and quantity and quality are not involved in the principle of liability. In other words, the rule governing civil liability is the rule of all or nothing. That is, the responsibility is considered to exist when the loss is realized, and to be extinguished when it is not. Meanwhile, taking into account one of the conditions of claimable loss, which must be certain in the past and that one cannot be sentenced to compensation based on the mere possibility of loss, this research seeks to find an answer to this question: Considering Iran’s and France’s laws and regulations and through the prevention of civil liability, it is possible to imagine a place for future loss and the possibility of compensation? The findings of this research indicate that a possible loss is a loss that has the possibility of its realization in the future, but a future loss is a loss whose existence and realization in the future are certain and the necessity of its existence has been achieved in such a way that a country’s custom and law consider such losses to be definitely claimable

Challenges to Use Response Time Standard in Assessing Emergency Medical Services in Iran: A Systematic Review

Response time (RT) accounts as a common tool for emergency medical services (EMS) assessment. While the national standard RT has been established in Iran since 2007, its application has hardly been put into scrutiny. This study aimed at investigating the use of RT standard in assessing EMS in Iran. This systematic review included papers focusing on prehospital EMS assessment published in Google Scholar, Scopus, Embase, PubMed, and the Persian databases of Magiran and SID. Selection criteria involved all English and Persian studies focusing on RT as an assessment of prehospital EMS in the context of Iran. Repetitious papers and those presented in conferences were omitted, which left 21 papers published from 2007 to mid-2016 for systematic review. A data collection form was designed. This provided both inclusive information about the papers and indicators used to report RT in each paper (i.e., mean and percentages of RT below 8 min) as well as the use of these indicators vis-a-vis that of the standard. From among the 21 papers focusing on RT, seven (33) reported RT as percentages of operations performed in <8 min according to the national standard and compared the percentage with the national standard. A total of 18 (86) reported the means of RT; nine studies compared mean and the national standard as expressed in percentage. Limited use of the national standard to report RT was identified as a challenge to EMS assessment. Further, the inconsistency that exists when comparing RT in terms of means and percentage is a challenge to the validity of judgments expressed in some previous studies. Employment of uniform methods to report and evaluate performance based on the national standard will lead to greater transparency in emergency operation performance

Relationship between Religious Orientation, Anxiety, and Depression among College Students: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Religious obligation helps people to develop mental health by creating internal commitment to special rules. This meta-analysis aimed to determine the relationship between religious orientation and anxiety among college students. METHODS: Major scientific databases including PubMed, Web of Science, Science Direct, EBSCO, ProQuest and PsycINFO were searched for original research articles published 1987-2016. A random effect model was used to combine Correlation coefficient. All analyses were performed using Stata MP. RESULTS: After screening of 7235 documents, 13 articles including 5620 participants met inclusion criteria in this meta-analysis. Correlation coefficient was -0.08 (95% CI= -0.19, -0.03) which indicated with increasing religious orientation, anxiety and depression reduced (P<0.001). Characteristics such as sex, geographic region, and type of religions were potential sources of heterogeneity. Based on fill-and-trim method the adjusted pooled r was obtained, -0.06 (95% CI= -0.16, -0.04). CONCLUSION: There was a weakness relationship between religious orientation and mental anxiety and depression. Therefore, it needs to improve knowledge of student about advantages of religious orientation. KEYWORDS: Anxiety; Depression; Meta-analysis; Religious orientatio

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. Methods The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. Findings Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, −1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, −1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. Interpretation Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI

Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990–2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021–30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050. Methods In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model. Findings Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535–656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8–8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3–134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 2020, cases of osteoarthritis are projected to increase 74·9% (59·4–89·9) for knee, 48·6% (35·9–67·1) for hand, 78·6% (57·7–105·3) for hip, and 95·1% (68·1–135·0) for other types of osteoarthritis by 2050. The global age-standardised rate of YLDs for total osteoarthritis was 255·0 YLDs (119·7–557·2) per 100 000 in 2020, a 9·5% (8·6–10·1) increase from 1990 (233·0 YLDs per 100 000, 109·3–510·8). For adults aged 70 years and older, osteoarthritis was the seventh ranked cause of YLDs. Age-standardised prevalence in 2020 was more than 5·5% in all world regions, ranging from 5677·4 (5029·8–6318·1) per 100 000 in southeast Asia to 8632·7 (7852·0–9469·1) per 100 000 in high-income Asia Pacific. Knee was the most common site for osteoarthritis. High BMI contributed to 20·4% (95% UI –1·7 to 36·6) of osteoarthritis. Potentially modifiable risk factors for osteoarthritis such as recreational injury prevention and occupational hazards have not yet been explored in GBD modelling. Interpretation Age-standardised YLDs attributable to osteoarthritis are continuing to rise and will lead to substantial increases in case numbers because of population growth and ageing, and because there is no effective cure for osteoarthritis. The demand on health systems for care of patients with osteoarthritis, including joint replacements, which are highly effective for late stage osteoarthritis in hips and knees, will rise in all regions, but might be out of reach and lead to further health inequity for individuals and countries unable to afford them. Much more can and should be done to prevent people getting to that late stage

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Funding: F Carvalho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. (FCT), in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of the Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of the Associate Laboratory Institute for Health and Bioeconomy i4HB; FCT/MCTES through the project UIDB/50006/2020. J Conde acknowledges the European Research Council Starting Grant (ERC-StG-2019-848325). V M Costa acknowledges the grant SFRH/BHD/110001/2015, received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006.proofepub_ahead_of_prin

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations