The effect of harmonized emissions on aerosol properties in global models – an AeroCom experiment

The effects of unified aerosol sources on global aerosol fields simulated by different models are examined in this paper. We compare results from two AeroCom experiments, one with different (ExpA) and one with unified emissions, injection heights, and particle sizes at the source (ExpB). Surprisingly, harmonization of aerosol sources has only a small impact on the simulated diversity for aerosol burden, and consequently optical properties, as the results are largely controlled by model-specific transport, removal, chemistry (leading to the formation of secondary aerosols) and parameterizations of aerosol microphysics (e.g. the split between deposition pathways) and to a lesser extent on the spatial and temporal distributions of the (precursor) emissions. The burdens of black carbon and especially sea salt become more coherent in ExpB only, because the large ExpA diversity for these two species was caused by few outliers. The experiment also indicated that despite prescribing emission fluxes and size distributions, ambiguities in the implementation in individual models can lead to substantial differences. These results indicate the need for a better understanding of aerosol life cycles at process level (including spatial dispersal and interaction with meteorological parameters) in order to obtain more reliable results from global aerosol simulations. This is particularly important as such model results are used to assess the consequences of specific air pollution abatement strategies

An AeroCom initial assessment – optical properties in aerosol component modules of global models

The AeroCom exercise diagnoses multi-component aerosol modules in global modeling. In an initial assessment simulated global distributions for mass and mid-visible aerosol optical thickness (aot) were compared among 20 different modules. Model diversity was also explored in the context of previous comparisons. For the component combined aot general agreement has improved for the annual global mean. At 0.11 to 0.14, simulated aot values are at the lower end of global averages suggested by remote sensing from ground (AERONET ca. 0.135) and space (satellite composite ca. 0.15). More detailed comparisons, however, reveal that larger differences in regional distribution and significant differences in compositional mixture remain. Of particular concern are large model diversities for contributions by dust and carbonaceous aerosol, because they lead to significant uncertainty in aerosol absorption (aab). Since aot and aab, both, influence the aerosol impact on the radiative energy-balance, the aerosol (direct) forcing uncertainty in modeling is larger than differences in aot might suggest. New diagnostic approaches are proposed to trace model differences in terms of aerosol processing and transport: These include the prescription of common input (e.g. amount, size and injection of aerosol component emissions) and the use of observational capabilities from ground (e.g. measurements networks) or space (e.g. correlations between aerosol and clouds)

Analysis and quantification of the diversities of aerosol life cycles within AeroCom

Simulation results of global aerosol models have been assembled in the framework of the AeroCom intercomparison exercise. In this paper, we analyze the life cycles of dust, sea salt, sulfate, black carbon and particulate organic matter as simulated by sixteen global aerosol models. The diversities among the models for the sources and sinks, burdens, particle sizes, water uptakes, and spatial dispersals have been established. These diversities have large consequences for the calculated radiative forcing and the aerosol concentrations at the surface. The AeroCom all-models-average emissions are dominated by the mass of sea salt (SS), followed by dust (DU), sulfate (SO_4), particulate organic matter (POM), and finally black carbon (BC). Interactive parameterizations of the emissions and contrasting particles sizes of SS and DU lead generally to higher diversities of these species, and for total aerosol. The lower diversity of the emissions of the fine aerosols, BC, POM, and SO_4, is due to the use of similar emission inventories, and does therefore not necessarily indicate a better understanding of their sources. The diversity of SO_4-sources is mainly caused by the disagreement on depositional loss of precursor gases and on chemical production. The diversities of the emissions are passed on to the burdens, but the latter are also strongly affected by the model-specific treatments of transport and aerosol processes. The burdens of dry masses decrease from largest to smallest: DU, SS, SO_4, POM, and BC. The all-models-average residence time is shortest for SS with about half a day, followed by S_O4 and DU with four days, and POM and BC with six and seven days, respectively. The wet deposition rate is controlled by the solubility and increases from DU, BC, POM to SO_4 and SS. It is the dominant sink for SO_4, BC, and POM, and contributes about one third to the total removal rate coefficients of SS and DU species. For SS and DU we find high diversities for the removal rate coefficients and deposition pathways. Models do neither agree on the split between wet and dry deposition, nor on that between sedimentation and turbulent dry Deposition. We diagnose an extremely high diversity for the uptake of ambient water vapor that influences the particle size and thus the sink rate coefficients. Furthermore, we find little agreement among the model results for the partitioning of wet removal into scavenging by convective and stratiform rain. Large differences exist for aerosol dispersal both in the vertical and in the horizontal direction. In some models, a minimum of total aerosol concentration is simulated at the surface. Aerosol dispersal is most pronounced for SO4 and BC and lowest for SS. Diversities are higher for meridional than for vertical dispersal, they are similar for a given species and highest for SS and DU. For these two components we do not find a correlation between vertical and meridional aerosol dispersal. In addition the degree of dispersals of SS and DU is not related to their residence times. SO_4, BC, and POM, however, show increased meridional dispersal in models with larger vertical dispersal, and dispersal is larger for longer simulated residence times

Association Between Myopia, Ultraviolet B Radiation Exposure, Serum Vitamin D Concentrations, and Genetic Polymorphisms in Vitamin D Metabolic Pathways in a Multicountry European Study.

IMPORTANCE: Myopia is becoming increasingly common globally and is associated with potentially sight-threatening complications. Spending time outdoors is protective, but the mechanism underlying this association is poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of myopia with ultraviolet B radiation (UVB; directly associated with time outdoors and sunlight exposure), serum vitamin D concentrations, and vitamin D pathway genetic variants, adjusting for years in education. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A cross-sectional, population-based random sample of participants 65 years and older was chosen from 6 study centers from the European Eye Study between November 6, 2000, to November 15, 2002. Of 4187 participants, 4166 attended an eye examination including refraction, gave a blood sample, and were interviewed by trained fieldworkers using a structured questionnaire. Myopia was defined as a mean spherical equivalent of -0.75 diopters or less. Exclusion criteria included aphakia, pseudophakia, late age-related macular degeneration, and vision impairment due to cataract, resulting in 371 participants with myopia and 2797 without. EXPOSURES: Exposure to UVB estimated by combining meteorological and questionnaire data at different ages, single-nucleotide polymorphisms in vitamin D metabolic pathway genes, serum vitamin D3 concentrations, and years of education. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Odds ratios (ORs) of UVB, serum vitamin D3 concentrations, vitamin D single-nucleotide polymorphisms, and myopia estimated from logistic regression. RESULT: Of the included 3168 participants, the mean (SD) age was 72.4 (5) years, and 1456 (46.0%) were male. An SD increase in UVB exposure at age 14 to 19 years (OR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.71-0.92) and 20 to 39 years (OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.62-0.93) was associated with a reduced adjusted OR of myopia; those in the highest tertile of years of education had twice the OR of myopia (OR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.41-3.06). No independent associations between myopia and serum vitamin D3 concentrations nor variants in genes associated with vitamin D metabolism were found. An unexpected finding was that the highest quintile of plasma lutein concentrations was associated with a reduced OR of myopia (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.46-0.72). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Increased UVB exposure was associated with reduced myopia, particularly in adolescence and young adulthood. The association was not altered by adjusting for education. We found no convincing evidence for a direct role of vitamin D in myopia risk. The relationship between high plasma lutein concentrations and a lower risk of myopia requires replication

Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5 °C to a 2 °C warmer world

Abstract The Paris agreement was adopted to hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C. Here, we investigate the event-to-event hydroclimatic intensity, where an event is a pair of adjacent wet and dry spells, under future warming scenarios. According to a set of targeted multi-model large ensemble experiments, event-wise intensification will significantly increase globally for an additional 0.5 °C warming beyond 1.5 °C. In high latitudinal regions of the North American continent and Eurasia, this intensification is likely to involve overwhelming increases in wet spell intensity. Western and Eastern North America will likely experience more intense wet spells with negligible changes of dry spells. For the Mediterranean region, enhancement of dry spells seems to be dominating compared to the decrease in wet spell strength, and this will lead to an overall event-wise intensification. Furthermore, the extreme intensification could be 10 times stronger than the mean intensification. The high damage potential of such drastic changes between flood and drought conditions poses a major challenge to adaptation, and the findings suggest that risks could be substantially reduced by achieving a 1.5 °C target

Non-manifesting AHI1 truncations indicate localized loss-of-function tolerance in a severe Mendelian disease gene

Determination of variant pathogenicity represents a major challenge in the era of high-throughput sequencing. Erroneous categorization may result if variants affect genes that are in fact dispensable. We demonstrate that this also applies to rare, apparently unambiguous truncating mutations of an established disease gene. By whole-exome sequencing (WES) in a consanguineous family with congenital non-syndromic deafness, we unexpectedly identified a homozygous nonsense variant, p.Arg1066*, in AHI1, a gene associated with Joubert syndrome (JBTS), a severe recessive ciliopathy. None of four homozygotes expressed any signs of JBTS, and one of them had normal hearing, which also ruled out p.Arg1066* as the cause of deafness. Homozygosity mapping and WES in the only other reported JBTS family with a homozygous C-terminal truncation (p.Trp1088Leufs*16) confirmed AHI1 as disease gene, but based on a more N-terminal missense mutation impairing WD40-repeat formation. Morpholinos against N-terminal zebrafish Ahi1, orthologous to where human mutations cluster, produced a ciliopathy, but targeting near human p.Arg1066 and p.Trp1088 did not. Most AHI1 mutations in JBTS patients result in truncated protein lacking WD40-repeats and the SH3 domain; disease was hitherto attributed to loss of these protein interaction modules. Our findings indicate that normal development does not require the C-terminal SH3 domain. This has far-reaching implications, considering that variants like p.Glu984* identified by preconception screening (‘Kingsmore panel') do not necessarily indicate JBTS carriership. Genomes of individuals with consanguineous background are enriched for homozygous variants that may unmask dispensable regions of disease genes and unrecognized false positives in diagnostic large-scale sequencing and preconception carrier screenin

Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): Background and experimental design

Abstract. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios.Large ensembles of simulations (&gt;  50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006–2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2 °C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5 °C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2 °C scenario. </jats:p

Aerosols at the poles: an AeroCom Phase II multi-model evaluation

Atmospheric aerosols from anthropogenic and natural sources reach the polar regions through long-range transport and affect the local radiation balance. Such transport is, however, poorly constrained in present-day global climate models, and few multi-model evaluations of polar anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing exist. Here we compare the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from simulations with 16 global aerosol models from the AeroCom Phase II model intercomparison project with available observations at both poles. We show that the annual mean multi-model median is representative of the observations in Arctic, but that the intermodel spread is large. We also document the geographical distribution and seasonal cycle of the AOD for the individual aerosol species: black carbon (BC) from fossil fuel and biomass burning, sulfate, organic aerosols (OAs), dust, and sea-salt. For a subset of models that represent nitrate and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs), we document the role of these aerosols at high latitudes. The seasonal dependence of natural and anthropogenic aerosols differs with natural aerosols peaking in winter (sea-salt) and spring (dust), whereas AOD from anthropogenic aerosols peaks in late spring and summer. The models produce a median annual mean AOD of 0.07 in the Arctic (defined here as north of 60° N). The models also predict a noteworthy aerosol transport to the Antarctic (south of 70° S) with a resulting AOD varying between 0.01 and 0.02. The models have estimated the shortwave anthropogenic radiative forcing contributions to the direct aerosol effect (DAE) associated with BC and OA from fossil fuel and biofuel (FF), sulfate, SOAs, nitrate, and biomass burning from BC and OA emissions combined. The Arctic modelled annual mean DAE is slightly negative (−0.12 W m−2), dominated by a positive BC FF DAE in spring and a negative sulfate DAE in summer. The Antarctic DAE is governed by BC FF. We perform sensitivity experiments with one of the AeroCom models (GISS modelE) to investigate how regional emissions of BC and sulfate and the lifetime of BC influence the Arctic and Antarctic AOD. A doubling of emissions in eastern Asia results in a 33 % increase in Arctic AOD of BC. A doubling of the BC lifetime results in a 39 % increase in Arctic AOD of BC. However, these radical changes still fall within the AeroCom model range

The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate

The core version of the Norwegian Climate Center's Earth System Model, named NorESM1-M, is presented. The NorESM family of models are based on the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, but differs from the latter by, in particular, an isopycnic coordinate ocean model and advanced chemistry–aerosol–cloud–radiation interaction schemes. NorESM1-M has a horizontal resolution of approximately 2° for the atmosphere and land components and 1° for the ocean and ice components. NorESM is also available in a lower resolution version (NorESM1-L) and a version that includes prognostic biogeochemical cycling (NorESM1-ME). The latter two model configurations are not part of this paper. Here, a first-order assessment of the model stability, the mean model state and the internal variability based on the model experiments made available to CMIP5 are presented. Further analysis of the model performance is provided in an accompanying paper (Iversen et al., 2013), presenting the corresponding climate response and scenario projections made with NorESM1-M