Structural Drift: The Population Dynamics of Sequential Learning

We introduce a theory of sequential causal inference in which learners in a chain estimate a structural model from their upstream teacher and then pass samples from the model to their downstream student. It extends the population dynamics of genetic drift, recasting Kimura's selectively neutral theory as a special case of a generalized drift process using structured populations with memory. We examine the diffusion and fixation properties of several drift processes and propose applications to learning, inference, and evolution. We also demonstrate how the organization of drift process space controls fidelity, facilitates innovations, and leads to information loss in sequential learning with and without memory.Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures; http://csc.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/sdrift.ht

Ocean Drilling Perspectives on Meteorite Impacts

Extraterrestrial impacts that reshape the surfaces of rocky bodies are ubiquitous in the solar system. On early Earth, impact structures may have nurtured the evolution of life. More recently, a large meteorite impact off the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico at the end of the Cretaceous caused the disappearance of 75% of species known from the fossil record, including non-avian dinosaurs, and cleared the way for the dominance of mammals and the eventual evolution of humans. Understanding the fundamental processes associated with impact events is critical to understanding the history of life on Earth, and the potential for life in our solar system and beyond. Scientific ocean drilling has generated a large amount of unique data on impact pro- cesses. In particular, the Yucatán Chicxulub impact is the single largest and most sig- nificant impact event that can be studied by sampling in modern ocean basins, and marine sediment cores have been instrumental in quantifying its environmental, cli- matological, and biological effects. Drilling in the Chicxulub crater has significantly advanced our understanding of fundamental impact processes, notably the formation of peak rings in large impact craters, but these data have also raised new questions to be addressed with future drilling. Within the Chicxulub crater, the nature and thickness of the melt sheet in the central basin is unknown, and an expanded Paleocene hemipelagic section would provide insights to both the recovery of life and the climatic changes that followed the impact. Globally, new cores collected from today’s central Pacific could directly sample the downrange ejecta of this northeast-southwest trending impact. Extraterrestrial impacts have been controversially suggested as primary drivers for many important paleoclimatic and environmental events throughout Earth history. However, marine sediment archives collected via scientific ocean drilling and geo- chemical proxies (e.g., osmium isotopes) provide a long-term archive of major impact events in recent Earth history and show that, other than the end-Cretaceous, impacts do not appear to drive significant environmental changes

Probing the hydrothermal system of the Chicxulub impact crater

The ~180-km-diameter Chicxulub peak-ring crater and ~240-km multiring basin, produced by the impact that terminated the Cretaceous, is the largest remaining intact impact basin on Earth. International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) and International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) Expedition 364 drilled to a depth of 1335 m below the sea floor into the peak ring, providing a unique opportunity to study the thermal and chemical modification of Earth’s crust caused by the impact. The recovered core shows the crater hosted a spatially extensive hydrothermal system that chemically and mineralogically modified ~1.4 × 105 km3 of Earth’s crust, a volume more than nine times that of the Yellowstone Caldera system. Initially, high temperatures of 300° to 400°C and an independent geomagnetic polarity clock indicate the hydrothermal system was long lived, in excess of 106 years

Pest population dynamics are related to a continental overwintering gradient

Overwintering success is an important determinant of arthropod populations that must be considered as climate change continues to influence the spatiotemporal population dynamics of agricultural pests. Using a long-term monitoring database and biologically relevant overwintering zones, we modeled the annual and seasonal population dynamics of a common pest, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), based on three overwintering suitability zones throughout North America using four decades of soil temperatures: the southern range (able to persist through winter), transitional zone (uncertain overwintering survivorship), and northern limits (unable to survive winter). Our model indicates H. zea population dynamics are hierarchically structured with continental-level effects that are partitioned into three geographic zones. Seasonal populations were initially detected in the southern range, where they experienced multiple large population peaks. All three zones experienced a final peak between late July (southern range) and mid-August to mid-September (transitional zone and northern limits). The southern range expanded by 3% since 1981 and is projected to increase by twofold by 2099 but the areas of other zones are expected to decrease in the future. These changes suggest larger populations may persist at higher latitudes in the future due to reduced low-temperature lethal events during winter. Because H. zea is a highly migratory pest, predicting when populations accumulate in one region can inform synchronous or lagged population development in other regions. We show the value of combining long-term datasets, remotely sensed data, and laboratory findings to inform forecasting of insect pests

Globally distributed iridium layer preserved within the Chicxulub impact structure

The Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction is marked globally by elevated concentrations of iridium, emplaced by a hypervelocity impact event 66 million years ago. Here, we report new data from four independent laboratories that reveal a positive iridium anomaly within the peak-ring sequence of the Chicxulub impact structure, in drill core recovered by IODP-ICDP Expedition 364. The highest concentration of ultrafine meteoritic matter occurs in the post-impact sediments that cover the crater peak ring, just below the lowermost Danian pelagic limestone. Within years to decades after the impact event, this part of the Chicxulub impact basin returned to a relatively low-energy depositional environment, recording in unprecedented detail the recovery of life during the succeeding millennia. The iridium layer provides a key temporal horizon precisely linking Chicxulub to K-Pg boundary sections worldwide

Functional Stability of Unliganded Envelope Glycoprotein Spikes among Isolates of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1)

The HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) spike is challenging to study at the molecular level, due in part to its genetic variability, structural heterogeneity and lability. However, the extent of lability in Env function, particularly for primary isolates across clades, has not been explored. Here, we probe stability of function for variant Envs of a range of isolates from chronic and acute infection, and from clades A, B and C, all on a constant virus backbone. Stability is elucidated in terms of the sensitivity of isolate infectivity to destabilizing conditions. A heat-gradient assay was used to determine T90 values, the temperature at which HIV-1 infectivity is decreased by 90% in 1 h, which ranged between ∼40 to 49°C (n = 34). For select Envs (n = 10), the half-lives of infectivity decay at 37°C were also determined and these correlated significantly with the T90 (p = 0.029), though two ‘outliers’ were identified. Specificity in functional Env stability was also evident. For example, Env variant HIV-1ADA was found to be labile to heat, 37°C decay, and guanidinium hydrochloride but not to urea or extremes of pH, when compared to its thermostable counterpart, HIV-1JR-CSF. Blue native PAGE analyses revealed that Env-dependent viral inactivation preceded complete dissociation of Env trimers. The viral membrane and membrane-proximal external region (MPER) of gp41 were also shown to be important for maintaining trimer stability at physiological temperature. Overall, our results indicate that primary HIV-1 Envs can have diverse sensitivities to functional inactivation in vitro, including at physiological temperature, and suggest that parameters of functional Env stability may be helpful in the study and optimization of native Env mimetics and vaccines

A Directed Molecular Evolution Approach to Improved Immunogenicity of the HIV-1 Envelope Glycoprotein

A prophylactic vaccine is needed to slow the spread of HIV-1 infection. Optimization of the wild-type envelope glycoproteins to create immunogens that can elicit effective neutralizing antibodies is a high priority. Starting with ten genes encoding subtype B HIV-1 gp120 envelope glycoproteins and using in vitro homologous DNA recombination, we created chimeric gp120 variants that were screened for their ability to bind neutralizing monoclonal antibodies. Hundreds of variants were identified with novel antigenic phenotypes that exhibit considerable sequence diversity. Immunization of rabbits with these gp120 variants demonstrated that the majority can induce neutralizing antibodies to HIV-1. One novel variant, called ST-008, induced significantly improved neutralizing antibody responses when assayed against a large panel of primary HIV-1 isolates. Further study of various deletion constructs of ST-008 showed that the enhanced immunogenicity results from a combination of effective DNA priming, an enhanced V3-based response, and an improved response to the constant backbone sequences

Life and death in the Chicxulub impact crater: a record of the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum

latitudes, with sea surface temperatures at some localities exceeding the 35 ∘C at which marine organisms experience heat stress. Relatively few equivalent terrestrial sections have been identified, and the response of land plants to this extreme heat is still poorly understood. Here, we present a new record of the PETM from the peak ring of the Chicxulub impact crater that has been identified based on nannofossil biostratigraphy, an acme of the dinoflagellate genus Apectodinium, and a negative carbon isotope excursion. Geochemical and microfossil proxies show that the PETM is marked by elevated TEXH86-based sea surface temperatures (SSTs) averaging ∼37.8 ∘C, an increase in terrestrial input and surface productivity, salinity stratification, and bottom water anoxia, with biomarkers for green and purple sulfur bacteria indicative of photic zone euxinia in the early part of the event. Pollen and plants spores in this core provide the first PETM floral assemblage described from Mexico, Central America, and the northern Caribbean. The source area was a diverse coastal shrubby tropical forest with a remarkably high abundance of fungal spores, indicating humid conditions. Thus, while seafloor anoxia devastated the benthic marine biota and dinoflagellate assemblages were heat-stressed, the terrestrial plant ecosystem thrived