24 research outputs found
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Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward
Climate change has emerged across many regions. Some observed regional climate changes, such as amplified Arctic warming and land-sea warming contrasts have been predicted by climate models. However, many other observed regional changes, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature
and monsoon rainfall are not well simulated by climate model ensembles even when taking into account natural internal variability and structural uncertainties in the response of models to anthropogenic radiative forcing. This suggests
climate model predictions may not fully reflect what our future will look like. The discrepancies between models and observations are not well understood due to several real and apparent puzzles and limitations such as the âsignal-to-noise paradoxâ and real-world record-shattering extremes falling outside of the possible range predicted by models. Addressing these discrepancies, puzzles and limitations is essential, because understanding and reliably predicting
regional climate change is necessary in order to communicate effectively about the underlying drivers of change, provide reliable information to stakeholders, enable societies to adapt, and increase resilience and reduce vulnerability.
The challenges of achieving this are greater in the Global South, especially because of the lack of observational data over long time periods and a lack of scientific focus on Global South climate change. To address discrepancies
between observations and models, it is important to prioritize resources for understanding regional climate predictions and analyzing where and why models and observations disagree via testing hypotheses of drivers of biases using observations and models. Gaps in understanding can be discovered and filled by exploiting new tools, such as artificial intelligence/machine learning, high-resolution models, new modeling experiments in the model hierarchy, better quantification of forcing, and new observations. Conscious efforts are needed toward creating opportunities that allow regional experts, particularly those from the Global South, to take the lead in regional climate research. This includes co-learning in technical aspects of analyzing simulations and in the physics and dynamics of regional climate change. Finally, improved methods of regional climate communication are needed, which account for the underlying uncertainties, in order to provide reliable and actionable information to stakeholders and the media
A chemical survey of exoplanets with ARIEL
Thousands of exoplanets have now been discovered with a huge range of masses, sizes and orbits: from rocky Earth-like planets to large gas giants grazing the surface of their host star. However, the essential nature of these exoplanets remains largely mysterious: there is no known, discernible pattern linking the presence, size, or orbital parameters of a planet to the nature of its parent star. We have little idea whether the chemistry of a planet is linked to its formation environment, or whether the type of host star drives the physics and chemistry of the planetâs birth, and evolution. ARIEL was conceived to observe a large number (~1000) of transiting planets for statistical understanding, including gas giants, Neptunes, super-Earths and Earth-size planets around a range of host star types using transit spectroscopy in the 1.25â7.8 ÎŒm spectral range and multiple narrow-band photometry in the optical. ARIEL will focus on warm and hot planets to take advantage of their well-mixed atmospheres which should show minimal condensation and sequestration of high-Z materials compared to their colder Solar System siblings. Said warm and hot atmospheres are expected to be more representative of the planetary bulk composition. Observations of these warm/hot exoplanets, and in particular of their elemental composition (especially C, O, N, S, Si), will allow the understanding of the early stages of planetary and atmospheric formation during the nebular phase and the following few million years. ARIEL will thus provide a representative picture of the chemical nature of the exoplanets and relate this directly to the type and chemical environment of the host star. ARIEL is designed as a dedicated survey mission for combined-light spectroscopy, capable of observing a large and well-defined planet sample within its 4-year mission lifetime. Transit, eclipse and phase-curve spectroscopy methods, whereby the signal from the star and planet are differentiated using knowledge of the planetary ephemerides, allow us to measure atmospheric signals from the planet at levels of 10â100 part per million (ppm) relative to the star and, given the bright nature of targets, also allows more sophisticated techniques, such as eclipse mapping, to give a deeper insight into the nature of the atmosphere. These types of observations require a stable payload and satellite platform with broad, instantaneous wavelength coverage to detect many molecular species, probe the thermal structure, identify clouds and monitor the stellar activity. The wavelength range proposed covers all the expected major atmospheric gases from e.g. H2O, CO2, CH4 NH3, HCN, H2S through to the more exotic metallic compounds, such as TiO, VO, and condensed species. Simulations of ARIEL performance in conducting exoplanet surveys have been performed â using conservative estimates of mission performance and a full model of all significant noise sources in the measurement â using a list of potential ARIEL targets that incorporates the latest available exoplanet statistics. The conclusion at the end of the Phase A study, is that ARIEL â in line with the stated mission objectives â will be able to observe about 1000 exoplanets depending on the details of the adopted survey strategy, thus confirming the feasibility of the main science objectives.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio
A novel, integrated in vitro carcinogenicity test to identify genotoxic and non-genotoxic carcinogens using human lymphoblastoid cells
Human exposure to carcinogens occurs via a plethora of environmental sources, with 70â90% of cancers caused by extrinsic factors. Aberrant phenotypes induced by such carcinogenic agents may provide universal biomarkers for cancer causation. Both current in vitro genotoxicity tests and the animal-testing paradigm in human cancer risk assessment fail to accurately represent and predict whether a chemical causes human carcinogenesis. The study aimed to establish whether the integrated analysis of multiple cellular endpoints related to the Hallmarks of Cancer could advance in vitro carcinogenicity assessment. Human lymphoblastoid cells (TK6, MCL-5) were treated for either 4 or 23 h with 8 known in vivo carcinogens, with doses up to 50% Relative Population Doubling (maximum 66.6 mM). The adverse effects of carcinogens on wide-ranging aspects of cellular health were quantified using several approaches; these included chromosome damage, cell signalling, cell morphology, cell-cycle dynamics and bioenergetic perturbations. Cell morphology and gene expression alterations proved particularly sensitive for environmental carcinogen identification. Composite scores for the carcinogensâ adverse effects revealed that this approach could identify both DNA-reactive and non-DNA reactive carcinogens in vitro. The richer datasets generated proved that the holistic evaluation of integrated phenotypic alterations is valuable for effective in vitro risk assessment, while also supporting animal test replacement. Crucially, the study offers valuable insights into the mechanisms of human carcinogenesis resulting from exposure to chemicals that humans are likely to encounter in their environment. Such an understanding of cancer induction via environmental agents is essential for cancer prevention
Multinational patterns of second line antihyperglycaemic drug initiation across cardiovascular risk groups:federated pharmacoepidemiological evaluation in LEGEND-T2DM
Objective: To assess the uptake of second line antihyperglycaemic drugs among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus who are receiving metformin.Design: Federated pharmacoepidemiological evaluation in LEGEND-T2DM.Setting: 10 US and seven non-US electronic health record and administrative claims databases in the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics network in eight countries from 2011 to the end of 2021.Participants: 4.8 million patients (â„18 years) across US and non-US based databases with type 2 diabetes mellitus who had received metformin monotherapy and had initiated second line treatments.Exposure: The exposure used to evaluate each database was calendar year trends, with the years in the study that were specific to each cohort.Main outcomes measures: The outcome was the incidence of second line antihyperglycaemic drug use (ie, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, and sulfonylureas) among individuals who were already receiving treatment with metformin. The relative drug class level uptake across cardiovascular risk groups was also evaluated.Results: 4.6 million patients were identified in US databases, 61â382 from Spain, 32â442 from Germany, 25â173 from the UK, 13â270 from France, 5580 from Scotland, 4614 from Hong Kong, and 2322 from Australia. During 2011-21, the combined proportional initiation of the cardioprotective antihyperglycaemic drugs (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors) increased across all data sources, with the combined initiation of these drugs as second line drugs in 2021 ranging from 35.2% to 68.2% in the US databases, 15.4% in France, 34.7% in Spain, 50.1% in Germany, and 54.8% in Scotland. From 2016 to 2021, in some US and non-US databases, uptake of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors increased more significantly among populations with no cardiovascular disease compared with patients with established cardiovascular disease. No data source provided evidence of a greater increase in the uptake of these two drug classes in populations with cardiovascular disease compared with no cardiovascular disease.Conclusions: Despite the increase in overall uptake of cardioprotective antihyperglycaemic drugs as second line treatments for type 2 diabetes mellitus, their uptake was lower in patients with cardiovascular disease than in people with no cardiovascular disease over the past decade. A strategy is needed to ensure that medication use is concordant with guideline recommendations to improve outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.</p
The GAPS programme at TNG XLIX. TOI-5398, the youngest compact multi-planet system composed of an inner sub-Neptune and an outer warm Saturn
Short-period giant planets are frequently found to be solitary compared to
other classes of exoplanets. Small inner companions to giant planets with 15 days are known only in five compact systems: WASP-47, Kepler-730,
WASP-132, TOI-1130, and TOI-2000. Here, we report the confirmation of TOI-5398,
the youngest compact multi-planet system composed of a hot sub-Neptune
(TOI-5398 c, = 4.77271 days) orbiting interior to a short-period
Saturn (TOI-5398 b, = 10.590547 days) planet, both transiting
around a 650 150 Myr G-type star. As part of the GAPS Young Object
project, we confirmed and characterised this compact system, measuring the
radius and mass of both planets, thus constraining their bulk composition.
Using multidimensional Gaussian processes, we simultaneously modelled stellar
activity and planetary signals from TESS Sector 48 light curve and our HARPS-N
radial velocity time series. We have confirmed the planetary nature of both
planets, TOI-5398 b and TOI-5398 c, alongside a precise estimation of stellar
parameters. Through the use of astrometric, photometric, and spectroscopic
observations, our findings indicate that TOI-5398 is a young, active G dwarf
star (650 150 Myr), with a rotational period of = 7.34
days. The transit photometry and radial velocity measurements enabled us to
measure both the radius and mass of planets b, ,
, and c, , . TESS observed TOI-5398 during sector 48 and no further
observations are planned in the current Extended Mission, making our
ground-based light curves crucial for ephemeris improvement. With a
Transmission Spectroscopy Metric value of around 300, TOI-5398 b is the most
amenable warm giant (10 < < 100 days) for JWST atmospheric
characterisation.Comment: 29 pages, Paper accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic
Pro-oxidant Induced DNA Damage in Human Lymphoblastoid Cells: Homeostatic Mechanisms of Genotoxic Tolerance
Oxidative stress contributes to many disease etiologies including ageing, neurodegeneration, and cancer, partly through DNA damage induction (genotoxicity). Understanding the i nteractions of free radicals with DNA is fundamental to discern mutation risks. In genetic toxicology, regulatory authorities consider that most genotoxins exhibit a linear relationship between dose and mutagenic response. Yet, homeostatic mechanisms, including DNA repair, that allow cells to tolerate low levels of genotoxic exposure exist. Acceptance of thresholds for genotoxicity has widespread consequences in terms of understanding cancer risk and regulating human exposure to chemicals/drugs. Three pro-oxidant chemicals, hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), potassium bromate (KBrO3), and menadione, were examined for low dose-response curves in human lymphoblastoid cells. DNA repair and antioxidant capacity were assessed as possible threshold mechanisms. H2O2 and KBrO3, but not menadione, exhibited thresholded responses, containing a range of nongenotoxic low doses. Levels of the DNA glycosylase 8-oxoguanine glycosylase were unchanged in response to pro- oxidant stress. DNA repairâfocused gene expression arrays reported changes in ATM and BRCA1, involved in double-strand break repair, in response to low-dose pro-oxidant exposure; however, these alterations were not substantiated at the protein level. Determination of oxidatively induced DNA damage in H2O2-treated AHH-1 cells reported accumulation of thymine glycol above the genotoxic threshold. Further, the H2O2 dose-response curve was shifted by modulating the antioxidant glutathione. Hence, observed pro- oxidant thresholds were due to protective capacities of base excision repair enzymes and antioxidants against DNA damage, highlighting the importance of homeostatic mechanisms in âgenotoxic tolerance.
Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome
The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers âŒ99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of âŒ1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead
The GAPS programme at TNG : XLIX. TOI-5398, the youngest compact multi-planet system composed of an inner sub-Neptune and an outer warm Saturn
Context. Short-period giant planets (P âČ 10 days, Mp >0.1 MJ) are frequently found to be solitary compared to other classes of exo-planets. Small inner companions to giant planets with P âČ 15 days are known only in five compact systems: WASP-47, Kepler-730, WASP-132, TOI-1130, and TOI-2000. Here, we report the confirmation of TOI-5398, the youngest known compact multi-planet system composed of a hot sub-Neptune (TOI-5398 c, Pc = 4.77271 days) orbiting interior to a short-period Saturn (TOI-5398 b, Pb = 10.590547 days) planet, both transiting around a 650 ± 150 Myr G-type star.
Aims. As part of the Global Architecture of Planetary Systems (GAPS) Young Object project, we confirmed and characterised this compact system, measuring the radius and mass of both planets, thus constraining their bulk composition.
Methods. Using multi-dimensional Gaussian processes, we simultaneously modelled stellar activity and planetary signals from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) Sector 48 light curve and our High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher (HARPS-N) radial velocity (RV) time series. We confirmed the planetary nature of both planets, TOI-5398 b and TOI-5398 c, and obtained a precise estimation of their stellar parameters.
Results. Through the use of astrometric, photometric, and spectroscopic observations, our findings indicate that TOI-5398 is a young, active G dwarf star (650 ± 150 Myr) with a rotational period of Prot = 7.34 days. The transit photometry and RV measurements enabled us to measure both the radius and mass of planets b, Rb = 10.30 ± 0.40 Râ, Mb = 58.7 ± 5.7 Mâ, and c, Rc = 3.52 ± 0.19 Râ, Mc = 11.8 ± 4.8 Mâ. TESS observed TOI-5398 during sector 48 and no further observations are planned in the current Extended Mission, making our ground-based light curves crucial for improvement of the ephemeris. With a transmission spectroscopy metric (TSM) value of around 300, TOI-5398 b is the most amenable warm giant (10 < P < 100 days) for JWST atmospheric characterisation
Risk of hydroxychloroquine alone and in combination with azithromycin in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis: a multinational, retrospective study
Background: Hydroxychloroquine, a drug commonly used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, has received much negative publicity for adverse events associated with its authorisation for emergency use to treat patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. We studied the safety of hydroxychloroquine, alone and in combination with azithromycin, to determine the risk associated with its use in routine care in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Methods: In this multinational, retrospective study, new user cohort studies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis aged 18 years or older and initiating hydroxychloroquine were compared with those initiating sulfasalazine and followed up over 30 days, with 16 severe adverse events studied. Self-controlled case series were done to further establish safety in wider populations, and included all users of hydroxychloroquine regardless of rheumatoid arthritis status or indication. Separately, severe adverse events associated with hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin (compared with hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin) were studied. Data comprised 14 sources of claims data or electronic medical records from Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, and the USA. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate calibrated hazard ratios (HRs) according to drug use. Estimates were pooled where the I2 value was less than 0·4. Findings: The study included 956 374 users of hydroxychloroquine, 310 350 users of sulfasalazine, 323 122 users of hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin, and 351 956 users of hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin. No excess risk of severe adverse events was identified when 30-day hydroxychloroquine and sulfasalazine use were compared. Self-controlled case series confirmed these findings. However, long-term use of hydroxychloroquine appeared to be associated with increased cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 1·65 [95% CI 1·12â2·44]). Addition of azithromycin appeared to be associated with an increased risk of 30-day cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 2·19 [95% CI 1·22â3·95]), chest pain or angina (1·15 [1·05â1·26]), and hear