Dynamics of Pleistocene climate change in the South Atlantic Ocean

Renssen, H. [Promotor]Peeters, F.J.C. [Copromotor

Paleo Agulhas rings enter the subtropical gyre during the penultimate deglaciation

A maximum in the strength of Agulhas leakage has been registered at the interface between the Indian and South Atlantic oceans during glacial Termination II (T-II). This presumably transported the salt and heat necessary for maintaining the Atlantic circulation at rates similar to the present day. However, it was never shown whether these waters were effectively incorporated into the South Atlantic gyre, or whether they retroflected into the Indian and/or Southern oceans. To resolve this question, we investigate the presence of paleo Agulhas rings from a sediment core on the central Walvis Ridge, almost 1800 km farther into the Atlantic Basin than previously studied. Analysis of a 60 yr data set from the global-nested INALT01 model allows us to relate density perturbations at the depth of the thermocline to the passage of individual rings over the core site. Using this relation from the numerical model as the basis for a proxy, we generate a time series of variability of individual Globorotalia truncatulinoides delta O-18. We reveal high levels of pycnocline depth variability at the site, suggesting enhanced numbers of Agulhas rings moving into the South Atlantic Gyre around T-II. Our record closely follows the published quantifications of Agulhas leakage from the east of the Cape Basin, and thus shows that Indian Ocean waters entered the South Atlantic circulation. This provides crucial support for the view of a prominent role of the Agulhas leakage in the shift from a glacial to an interglacial mode of the Atlantic circulation

Building typological classification in Switzerland using deep learning methods for seismic assessment

Natural disasters, such as earthquakes, have always represented a danger to human life. Seismic risk assessment consists of the evaluation of existing buildings and their expected response in case of an earthquake; the exposure model of buildings plays a key role in risk calculations. With this respect, in recent years, advanced techniques have been developed to speed up and automatize the processes of data acquisition to data interpretation, although it is worth mentioning that the visual survey is essential to train and validate Machine Learning (ML) methods. In the present study, the identification of building types is conducted by exploiting the traditional visual survey to implement a Deep Learning (DL) classification model. As a first step, city mapping schemes are obtained by classifying buildings according to the main features (i.e., construction period and height classes). Then, Random Forest (RF), a supervised learning algorithm, is applied to classify different building types by exploiting all their attributes. The RF model is trained and tested on the cities of Neuchatel and Yverdon-Les-Bains. The decent accuracy of the results encourages the application of the method to different cities, with proper adjustments in datasets, features and algorithms

Generic adaptation pathways for coastal archetypes under uncertain sea-level rise

Adaptation to coastal flood risk is hampered by high uncertainty in the rate and magnitude of sea-level rise. Subsequently, adaptation decisions carry strong risks of under- or over-investment, and could lead to costly retrofitting or unnecessary high margins. To better allocate resources timely and effectively, and achieve long-term sustainability, planners could utilise adaptation pathways, revealing the path-dependencies of adaptation options. This helps to identify low-regret short-term decisions that preserve options in an uncertain future, while monitoring to detect signals to adapt. A major barrier to the application of adaptation pathways is limited experience. To facilitate this, here we generalize this pathways approach for six common coastal archetypes, resulting in generic pathways suitable to be adjusted to local conditions. This provides a much richer analysis of coastal adaptation than provided by any previous analysis, by assessing the solution space and options over time for a variety of coastal regions. Based on this analysis, we find that the number of adaptation options declines while sea-level rises. For some archetypes, it becomes clear that long-term thinking is needed now, about if, how and when to move to transformative options, such as planned retreat, which may presently not be considered or acceptable. Our analysis further shows that coastal adaptation needs to start earlier than anticipated, especially given time required for local debate and choice and to implement measures

Middle and late Holocene climate change and human impact inferred from diatoms, algae and aquatic macrophyte pollen in sediments from Lake Montcortès (NE Iberian Peninsula)

During the middle and late Holocene, the Iberian Peninsula underwent large climatic and hydrologic changes, but the temporal resolution and regional distribution of available palaeoenvironmental records is still insufficient for a comprehensive assessment of the regional variability. The high sedimentation rate in karstic, meromictic Montcortès Lake (Catalan pre-Pyrenees) allows for a detailed reconstruction of the regional palaeoecology over the last 5,340 years using diatom analysis, aquatic pollen, sedimentological data, and historic documentary records. Results show marked fluctuations in diatom species assemblage composition, mainly between dominant Cyclotella taxa and small Fragilariales. We suggest that the conspicuous alternation between Cyclotella comta and C. cyclopuncta reflects changes in trophic state, while the succession of centric and pennate species most likely reflects changes in the hydrology of the lake. The diatom assemblages were used to identify six main phases: (1) high productivity and likely lower lake levels before 2350 BC, (2) lower lake levels and a strong arid phase between 2350 and 1850 BC, (3) lake level increase between 1850 and 850 BC, (4) relatively high lake level with fluctuating conditions during the Iberian and Roman Epochs (650 BC–350 AD), (5) lower lake levels,unfavourable conditions for diatom preservation, eutrophication and erosion triggered by increased human activities in the watershed during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (900–1300 AD), and (6) relatively higher lake levels during the LIA (1380–1850 AD) and afterwards. The combined study of diatoms, algae and pollen provides a detailed reconstruction of past climate, which refines understanding of regional environmental variability and interactions between climate and socio-economic conditions in the Pyrenees.Financial support for this research was provided by the Spanish Inter-Ministry of Science and Technology (CICYT), through the projects LIMNOCLIBER (REN2003-09130-C02-02), LIMNOCAL (CGL2006-13327-C04-01) and GRACCIE-CONSOLIDER (CSD2007-00067). The Ebro Hydrographic Survey kindly provided updated, present-day limnological data. Two anonymous referees greatly improved a former version of this manuscript.Peer Reviewe

Modeled storm surge changes in a warmer world: the Last Interglacial

The Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 125 ka) is a period of interest for climate research as it is the most recent period of the Earth's history when the boreal climate was warmer than at present. Previous research, based on models and geological evidence, suggests that the LIG may have featured enhanced patterns of ocean storminess, but this remains hotly debated. Here, we apply state-of-the-art climate and hydrodynamic modeling to simulate changes in sea level extremes caused by storm surges, under LIG and pre-industrial climate forcings. Significantly higher seasonal LIG sea level extremes emerge for coastlines along northern Australia, the Indonesian archipelago, much of northern and eastern Africa, the Mediterranean Sea, the Gulf of Saint Lawrence, the Arabian Sea, the east coast of North America, and islands of the Pacific Ocean and of the Caribbean. Lower seasonal LIG sea level extremes emerge for coastlines along the North Sea, the Bay of Bengal, China, Vietnam, and parts of Central America. Most of these anomalies are associated with anomalies in seasonal sea level pressure minima and in eddy kinetic energy calculated from near-surface wind fields, and therefore seem to originate from anomalies in the meridional position and intensity of the predominant wind bands. In a qualitative comparison, LIG sea level extremes seem generally higher than those projected for future warmer climates. These results help to constrain the interpretation of coastal archives of LIG sea level indicators.</p

Agreement between reconstructed and modeled boreal precipitation of the Last Interglacial

The last extended time period when climate may have been warmer than today was during the Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 129 to 120 thousand years ago). However, a global view of LIG precipitation is lacking. Here, seven new LIG climate models are compared to the first global database of proxies for LIG precipitation. In this way, models are assessed in their ability to capture important hydroclimatic processes during a different climate. The models can reproduce the proxy-based positive precipitation anomalies from the preindustrial period over much of the boreal continents. Over the Southern Hemisphere, proxy-model agreement is partial. In models, LIG boreal monsoons have 42% wider area than in the preindustrial and produce 55% more precipitation and 50% more extreme precipitation. Austral monsoons are weaker. The mechanisms behind these changes are consistent with stronger summer radiative forcing over boreal high latitudes and with the associated higher temperatures during the LIG

Impacts of metal mining on river systems: a global assessment

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the American Association for the Advancement of Science via the DOI in this record Data and materials availability: The Water and Planetary Health Analytics (WAPHA) global metal mines database is divided into four components. Publicly available data on (i) active and (ii) inactive metal mines are available from the US Geological Survey Mineral Resources Data System [https://mrdata.usgs.gov/mrds/ (31)], the BritPits database of the British Geological Survey [https://www.bgs.ac.uk/datasets/britpits/ (32)], and the S&P Global Market Intelligence database [https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/metals-mining (33)]. In addition, data for ~100,000 additional active and inactive mines obtained from academic and gray literature are stored in the WAPHA database [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.j3tx95xmg (29)]. Publicly available data relating to (iii) TSFs and (iv) TDFs are available from ICOLD/UNEP [https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=8W0hAQAAIAAJ (34)], the World Information Service on Energy [https://wise-uranium.org/mdaf.html (35)], the World Mine Tailings Failures and Global Tailings Portal databases [https://tailing.grida.no/ (36)]. Additional TSF/TDF data obtained from academic and gray literature are stored in the WAPHA database [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.j3tx95xmg (29)]. Modeling was implemented procedurally in MATLAB v9.9.0 (R2020b) (37) with the open source TopoToolbox MATLAB program for the analysis of digital elevation models (https://topotoolbox.wordpress.com). The modeling workflow is presented in fig. S8 with example code available in the WAPHA database [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.j3tx95xmg (29)]An estimated 23 million people live on floodplains affected by potentially dangerous concentrations of toxic waste derived from past and present metal mining activity. We analyzed the global dimensions of this hazard, particularly in regard to lead, zinc, copper, and arsenic, using a georeferenced global database detailing all known metal mining sites and intact and failed tailings storage facilities. We then used process-based and empirically tested modeling to produce a global assessment of metal mining contamination in river systems and the numbers of human populations and livestock exposed. Worldwide, metal mines affect 479,200 kilometers of river channels and 164,000 square kilometers of floodplains. The number of people exposed to contamination sourced from long-term discharge of mining waste into rivers is almost 50 times greater than the number directly affected by tailings dam failures.University of Lincol

Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: Results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)

Abstract. The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization. </jats:p