A changepoint analysis of spatio-temporal point processes

As regards author Linda Altieri, the research work underlying this paper was partially funded by a FIRB 2012 grant (project no. RBFR12URQJ; title: Statistical modeling of environmental phenomena: pollution, meteorology, health and their interactions) for research projects by the Italian Ministry of Education, Universities and Research.This work introduces a Bayesian approach to detecting multiple unknown changepoints over time in the inhomogeneous intensity of a spatio-temporal point process with spatial and temporal dependence within segments. We propose a new method for detecting changes by fitting a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process model using the computational efficiency and flexibility of integrated nested Laplace approximation, and by studying the posterior distribution of the potential changepoint positions. In this paper, the context of the problem and the research questions are introduced, then the methodology is presented and discussed in detail. A simulation study assesses the validity and properties of the proposed methods. Lastly, questions are addressed concerning potential unknown changepoints in the intensity of radioactive particles found on Sandside beach, Dounreay, Scotland.PostprintPeer reviewe

Digital cognitive behaviour therapy for insomnia in individuals with self-reported insomnia and chronic fatigue: A secondary analysis of a large scale randomized controlled trial

Insomnia is associated with fatigue, but it is unclear whether response to cognitive behaviour therapy for insomnia is altered in individuals with co-occurring symptoms of insomnia and chronic fatigue. This is a secondary analysis using data from 1717 participants with self-reported insomnia in a community-based randomized controlled trial of digital cognitive behaviour therapy for insomnia compared with patient education. We employed baseline ratings of the Chalder Fatigue Questionnaire to identify participants with more or fewer symptoms of self-reported chronic fatigue (chronic fatigue, n = 592; no chronic fatigue, n = 1125). We used linear mixed models with Insomnia Severity Index, Short Form-12 mental health, Short Form-12 physical health, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale separately as outcome variables. The main covariates were main effects and interactions for time (baseline versus 9-week follow-up), intervention, and chronic fatigue. Participants with chronic fatigue reported significantly greater improvements following digital cognitive behaviour therapy for insomnia compared with patient education on the Insomnia Severity Index (Cohen's d = 1.36, p < 0.001), Short Form-12 mental health (Cohen's d = 0.19, p = 0.029), and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (Cohen's d = 0.18, p = 0.010). There were no significant differences in the effectiveness of digital cognitive behaviour therapy for insomnia between chronic fatigue and no chronic fatigue participants on any outcome. We conclude that in a large community-based sample of adults with insomnia, co-occurring chronic fatigue did not moderate the effectiveness of digital cognitive behaviour therapy for insomnia on any of the tested outcomes. This may further establish digital cognitive behaviour therapy for insomnia as an adjunctive intervention in individuals with physical and mental disorders.publishedVersio

Dysfunctional beliefs and attitudes about sleep (DBAS) mediate outcomes in dCBT-I on psychological distress, fatigue, and insomnia severity

Objective/background Digital cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (dCBT-I) improves several sleep and health outcomes in individuals with insomnia. This study investigates whether changes in Dysfunctional Beliefs and Attitudes about Sleep (DBAS) during dCBT-I mediate changes in psychological distress, fatigue, and insomnia severity. Patients/methods The study presents a secondary planned analysis of data from 1073 participants in a randomized control trial (Total sample = 1721) of dCBT-I compared with patient education (PE). Self-ratings with the Dysfunctional Beliefs and Attitudes about Sleep (DBAS), the Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale (HADS), the Chalder Fatigue Scale (CFQ), and the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) were obtained at baseline and 9-week follow-up. Hayes PROCESS mediation analyses were conducted to test for mediation. Results and conclusion sDBAS scores were significantly reduced at 9-week follow-up for those randomized to dCBT-I (n = 566) compared with PE (n = 507). The estimated mean difference was −1.49 (95% CI -1.66 to −1.31, p < .001, Cohen's d. = 0.93). DBAS mediated all the effect of dCBT-I on the HADS and the CFQ, and 64% of the change on the ISI (Estimated indirect effect −3.14, 95% CI -3.60 to −2.68) at 9-week follow-up compared with PE. Changes in the DBAS fully mediated the effects of dCBT-I on psychological distress and fatigue, and the DBAS partially mediated the effects on insomnia severity. These findings may have implications for understanding how dCBT-I works and highlights the role of changing cognitions in dCBT-I.publishedVersio

Life-Course Genome-wide Association Study Meta-analysis of Total Body BMD and Assessment of Age-Specific Effects.

Bone mineral density (BMD) assessed by DXA is used to evaluate bone health. In children, total body (TB) measurements are commonly used; in older individuals, BMD at the lumbar spine (LS) and femoral neck (FN) is used to diagnose osteoporosis. To date, genetic variants in more than 60 loci have been identified as associated with BMD. To investigate the genetic determinants of TB-BMD variation along the life course and test for age-specific effects, we performed a meta-analysis of 30 genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of TB-BMD including 66,628 individuals overall and divided across five age strata, each spanning 15 years. We identified variants associated with TB-BMD at 80 loci, of which 36 have not been previously identified; overall, they explain approximately 10% of the TB-BMD variance when combining all age groups and influence the risk of fracture. Pathway and enrichment analysis of the association signals showed clustering within gene sets implicated in the regulation of cell growth and SMAD proteins, overexpressed in the musculoskeletal system, and enriched in enhancer and promoter regions. These findings reveal TB-BMD as a relevant trait for genetic studies of osteoporosis, enabling the identification of variants and pathways influencing different bone compartments. Only variants in ESR1 and close proximity to RANKL showed a clear effect dependency on age. This most likely indicates that the majority of genetic variants identified influence BMD early in life and that their effect can be captured throughout the life course

Development and Validation of the Gene Expression Predictor of High-grade Serous Ovarian Carcinoma Molecular SubTYPE (PrOTYPE).

PURPOSE: Gene expression-based molecular subtypes of high-grade serous tubo-ovarian cancer (HGSOC), demonstrated across multiple studies, may provide improved stratification for molecularly targeted trials. However, evaluation of clinical utility has been hindered by nonstandardized methods, which are not applicable in a clinical setting. We sought to generate a clinical grade minimal gene set assay for classification of individual tumor specimens into HGSOC subtypes and confirm previously reported subtype-associated features. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Adopting two independent approaches, we derived and internally validated algorithms for subtype prediction using published gene expression data from 1,650 tumors. We applied resulting models to NanoString data on 3,829 HGSOCs from the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium. We further developed, confirmed, and validated a reduced, minimal gene set predictor, with methods suitable for a single-patient setting. RESULTS: Gene expression data were used to derive the predictor of high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma molecular subtype (PrOTYPE) assay. We established a de facto standard as a consensus of two parallel approaches. PrOTYPE subtypes are significantly associated with age, stage, residual disease, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, and outcome. The locked-down clinical grade PrOTYPE test includes a model with 55 genes that predicted gene expression subtype with >95% accuracy that was maintained in all analytic and biological validations. CONCLUSIONS: We validated the PrOTYPE assay following the Institute of Medicine guidelines for the development of omics-based tests. This fully defined and locked-down clinical grade assay will enable trial design with molecular subtype stratification and allow for objective assessment of the predictive value of HGSOC molecular subtypes in precision medicine applications.See related commentary by McMullen et al., p. 5271.Core funding for this project was provided by the National Institutes of Health (R01-CA172404, PI: S.J. Ramus; and R01-CA168758, PIs: J.A. Doherty and M.A.Rossing), the Canadian Institutes for Health Research (Proof-of-Principle I program, PIs: D.G.Huntsman and M.S. Anglesio), the United States Department of Defense Ovarian Cancer Research Program (OC110433, PI: D.D. Bowtell). A. Talhouk is funded through a Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research Scholar Award. M.S. Anglesio is funded through a Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research Scholar Award and the Janet D. Cottrelle Foundation Scholars program managed by the BC Cancer Foundation. J. George was partially supported by the NIH/National Cancer Institute award number P30CA034196. C. Wang was a Career Enhancement Awardee of the Mayo Clinic SPORE in Ovarian Cancer (P50 CA136393). D.G. Huntsman receives support from the Dr. Chew Wei Memorial Professorship in Gynecologic Oncology, and the Canada Research Chairs program (Research Chair in Molecular and Genomic Pathology). M. Widschwendter receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 European Research Council Programme, H2020 BRCA-ERC under Grant Agreement No. 742432 as well as the charity, The Eve Appeal (https://eveappeal.org.uk/), and support of the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) and the University College London Hospitals (UCLH) Biomedical Research Centre. G.E. Konecny is supported by the Miriam and Sheldon Adelson Medical Research Foundation. B.Y. Karlan is funded by the American Cancer Society Early Detection Professorship (SIOP-06-258-01-COUN) and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS), Grant UL1TR000124. H.R. Harris is 20 supported by the NIH/National Cancer Institute award number K22 CA193860. OVCARE (including the VAN study) receives support through the BC Cancer Foundation and The VGH+UBC Hospital Foundation (authors AT, BG, DGH, and MSA). The AOV study is supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (MOP86727). The Gynaecological Oncology Biobank at Westmead, a member of the Australasian Biospecimen Network-Oncology group, was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council Enabling Grants ID 310670 & ID 628903 and the Cancer Institute NSW Grants ID 12/RIG/1-17 & 15/RIG/1-16. The Australian Ovarian Cancer Study Group was supported by the U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command under DAMD17-01-1-0729, The Cancer Council Victoria, Queensland Cancer Fund, The Cancer Council New South Wales, The Cancer Council South Australia, The Cancer Council Tasmania and The Cancer Foundation of Western Australia (Multi-State Applications 191, 211 and 182) and the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (NHMRC; ID199600; ID400413 and ID400281). BriTROC-1 was funded by Ovarian Cancer Action (to IAM and JDB, grant number 006) and supported by Cancer Research UK (grant numbers A15973, A15601, A18072, A17197, A19274 and A19694) and the National Institute for Health Research Cambridge and Imperial Biomedical Research Centres. Samples from the Mayo Clinic were collected and provided with support of P50 CA136393 (E.L.G., G.L.K, S.H.K, M.E.S.)

Genome-wide associations for birth weight and correlations with adult disease

Birth weight (BW) is influenced by both foetal and maternal factors and in observational studies is reproducibly associated with future risk of adult metabolic diseases including type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease1. These lifecourse associations have often been attributed to the impact of an adverse early life environment. We performed a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of BW in 153,781 individuals, identifying 60 loci where foetal genotype was associated with BW (P <5x10-8). Overall, ˜15% of variance in BW could be captured by assays of foetal genetic variation. Using genetic association alone, we found strong inverse genetic correlations between BW and systolic blood pressure (rg-0.22, P =5.5x10-13), T2D (rg-0.27, P =1.1x10-6) and coronary artery disease (rg-0.30, P =6.5x10-9) and, in large cohort data sets, demonstrated that genetic factors were the major contributor to the negative covariance between BW and future cardiometabolic risk. Pathway analyses indicated that the protein products of genes within BW-associated regions were enriched for diverse processes including insulin signalling, glucose homeostasis, glycogen biosynthesis and chromatin remodelling. There was also enrichment of associations with BW in known imprinted regions (P =1.9x10-4). We have demonstrated that lifecourse associations between early growth phenotypes and adult cardiometabolic disease are in part the result of shared genetic effects and have highlighted some of the pathways through which these causal genetic effects are mediated

Comprehensive Pan-Genomic Characterization of Adrenocortical Carcinoma

SummaryWe describe a comprehensive genomic characterization of adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC). Using this dataset, we expand the catalogue of known ACC driver genes to include PRKAR1A, RPL22, TERF2, CCNE1, and NF1. Genome wide DNA copy-number analysis revealed frequent occurrence of massive DNA loss followed by whole-genome doubling (WGD), which was associated with aggressive clinical course, suggesting WGD is a hallmark of disease progression. Corroborating this hypothesis were increased TERT expression, decreased telomere length, and activation of cell-cycle programs. Integrated subtype analysis identified three ACC subtypes with distinct clinical outcome and molecular alterations which could be captured by a 68-CpG probe DNA-methylation signature, proposing a strategy for clinical stratification of patients based on molecular markers

Genome-wide associations for birth weight and correlations with adult disease

Birth weight (BW) has been shown to be influenced by both fetal and maternal factors and in observational studies is reproducibly associated with future risk of adult metabolic diseases including type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease. These life-course associations have often been attributed to the impact of an adverse early life environment. Here, we performed a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of BW in 153,781 individuals, identifying 60 loci where fetal genotype was associated with BW ($\textit{P}$  < 5 × 10$^{-8}$). Overall, approximately 15% of variance in BW was captured by assays of fetal genetic variation. Using genetic association alone, we found strong inverse genetic correlations between BW and systolic blood pressure ($\textit{R}$ $_{g}$ = -0.22, $\textit{P}$  = 5.5 × 10$^{-13}$), T2D ($\textit{R}$ $_{g}$ = -0.27, $\textit{P}$  = 1.1 × 10$^{-6}$) and coronary artery disease ($\textit{R}$ $_{g}$ = -0.30, $\textit{P}$  = 6.5 × 10$^{-9}$). In addition, using large -cohort datasets, we demonstrated that genetic factors were the major contributor to the negative covariance between BW and future cardiometabolic risk. Pathway analyses indicated that the protein products of genes within BW-associated regions were enriched for diverse processes including insulin signalling, glucose homeostasis, glycogen biosynthesis and chromatin remodelling. There was also enrichment of associations with BW in known imprinted regions ($\textit{P}$ = 1.9 × 10$^{-4}$). We demonstrate that life-course associations between early growth phenotypes and adult cardiometabolic disease are in part the result of shared genetic effects and identify some of the pathways through which these causal genetic effects are mediated.For a full list of the funders pelase visit the publisher's website and look at the supplemetary material provided. Some of the funders are: British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, National Institutes of Health, Royal Society and Wellcome Trust

Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s41512-016-0001-y.]