The role of salinity in the decadal variability of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climate Dynamics 33 (2009): 777-793, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0523-2.An OGCM hindcast is used to investigate the linkages between North Atlantic Ocean salinity and circulation changes during 1963–2003. The focus is on the eastern subpolar region consisting of the Irminger Sea and the eastern North Atlantic where a careful assessment shows that the simulated interannual to decadal salinity changes in the upper 1500 m reproduce well those derived from the available record of hydrographic measurements. In the model, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is primarily driven by changes in deep water formation taking place in the Irminger Sea and, to a lesser extent, the Labrador Sea. Both are strongly influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The modeled interannual to decadal salinity changes in the subpolar basins are mostly controlled by circulation-driven anomalies of freshwater flux convergence, although surface salinity restoring to climatology and other boundary fluxes each account for approximately 25% of the variance. The NAO plays an important role: a positive NAO phase is associated with increased precipitation, reduced northward salt transport by the wind-driven intergyre gyre, and increased southward flows of freshwater across the Greenland-Scotland ridge. Since the NAO largely controlled deep convection in the subpolar gyre, fresher waters are found near the sinking region during convective events. This markedly differs from the active influence on the MOC that salinity exerts at decadal and longer timescales in most coupled models. The intensification of the MOC that follows a positive NAO phase by about 2 years does not lead to an increase in the northward salt transport into the subpolar domain at low frequencies because it is cancelled by the concomitant intensification of the subpolar gyre which shifts the subpolar front eastward and reduces the northward salt transport by the North Atlantic Current waters. This differs again from most coupled models, where the gyre intensification precedes that of the MOC by several years.Support from NSF Grant 82677800 with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and (to CF) from the Institut universitaire de France and European FP6 project DYNAMITE (contract 003903-GOCE) and (to JD) from the NOAA Office of Hydrologic Development through a scientific appointment administered by UCAR is gratefully acknowledged

Seasonal-to-decadal predictions with the ensemble Kalman filter and the Norwegian Earth System Model: a twin experiment

Here, we firstly demonstrate the potential of an advanced flow dependent data assimilation method for performing seasonal-to-decadal prediction and secondly, reassess the use of sea surface temperature (SST) for initialisation of these forecasts. We use the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM), which is based on the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) and uses the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter to assimilate observations. NorESM is a fully coupled system based on the Community Earth System Model version 1, which includes an ocean, an atmosphere, a sea ice and a land model. A numerically efficient coarse resolution version of NorESM is used. We employ a twin experiment methodology to provide an upper estimate of predictability in our model framework (i.e. without considering model bias) of NorCPM that assimilates synthetic monthly SST data (EnKF-SST). The accuracy of EnKF-SST is compared to an unconstrained ensemble run (FREE) and ensemble predictions made with near perfect (i.e. microscopic SST perturbation) initial conditions (PERFECT). We perform 10 cycles, each consisting of a 10-yr assimilation phase, followed by a 10-yr prediction. The results indicate that EnKF-SST improves sea level, ice concentration, 2 m atmospheric temperature, precipitation and 3-D hydrography compared to FREE. Improvements for the hydrography are largest near the surface and are retained for longer periods at depth. Benefits in salinity are retained for longer periods compared to temperature. Near-surface improvements are largest in the tropics, while improvements at intermediate depths are found in regions of large-scale currents, regions of deep convection, and at the Mediterranean Sea outflow. However, the benefits are often small compared to PERFECT, in particular, at depth suggesting that more observations should be assimilated in addition to SST. The EnKF-SST system is also tested for standard ocean circulation indices and demonstrates decadal predictability for Atlantic overturning and sub-polar gyre circulations, and heat content in the Nordic Seas. The system beats persistence forecast and shows skill for heat content in the Nordic Seas that is close to PERFECT

Efficacy of Fumaric Acid Esters in the R6/2 and YAC128 Models of Huntington's Disease

Huntington's disease (HD) is an autosomal dominantly inherited progressive neurodegenerative disease. The exact sequel of events finally resulting in neurodegeneration is only partially understood and there is no established protective treatment so far. Some lines of evidence speak for the contribution of oxidative stress to neuronal tissue damage. The fumaric acid ester dimethylfumarate (DMF) is a new disease modifying therapy currently in phase III studies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. DMF potentially exerts neuroprotective effects via induction of the transcription factor “nuclear factor E2-related factor 2” (Nrf2) and detoxification pathways. Thus, we investigated here the therapeutic efficacy of DMF in R6/2 and YAC128 HD transgenic mice which mimic many aspects of HD and are characterized by an enhanced generation of free radicals in neurons. Treatment with DMF significantly prevented weight loss in R6/2 mice between postnatal days 80–90. At the same time, DMF treatment led to an attenuated motor impairment as measured by the clasping score. Average survival in the DMF group was 100.5 days vs. 94.0 days in the placebo group. In the histological analysis on day 80, DMF treatment resulted in a significant preservation of morphologically intact neurons in the striatum as well as in the motor cortex. DMF treatment resulted in an increased Nrf2 immunoreactivity in neuronal subpopulations, but not in astrocytes. These beneficial effects were corroborated in YAC128 mice which, after one year of DMF treatment, also displayed reduced dyskinesia as well as a preservation of neurons. In conclusion, DMF may exert beneficial effects in mouse models of HD. Given its excellent side effect profile, further studies with DMF as new therapeutic approach in HD and other neurodegenerative diseases are warranted

Dimethyl fumarate blocks pro-inflammatory cytokine production via inhibition of TLR induced M1 and K63 ubiquitin chain formation

Dimethyl fumarate (DMF) possesses anti-inflammatory properties and is approved for the treatment of psoriasis and multiple sclerosis. While clinically effective, its molecular target has remained elusive - although it is known to activate anti-oxidant pathways. We find that DMF inhibits pro-inflammatory cytokine production in response to TLR agonists independently of the Nrf2-Keap1 anti-oxidant pathway. Instead we show that DMF can inhibit the E2 conjugating enzymes involved in K63 and M1 polyubiquitin chain formation both in vitro and in cells. The formation of K63 and M1 chains is required to link TLR activation to downstream signaling, and consistent with the block in K63 and/or M1 chain formation, DMF inhibits NFκB and ERK1/2 activation, resulting in a loss of pro-inflammatory cytokine production. Together these results reveal a new molecular target for DMF and show that a clinically approved drug inhibits M1 and K63 chain formation in TLR induced signaling complexes. Selective targeting of E2s may therefore be a viable strategy for autoimmunity

Is the Thermohaline Circulation Changing?

International audienceAnalyses of ocean observations and model simulations suggest that there have been considerable changes in the thermohaline circulation (THC) during the last century. These changes are likely to be the result of natural multidecadal climate variability and are driven by low-frequency variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) through changes in Labrador Sea convection. Indications of a sustained THC weakening are not seen during the last few decades. Instead, a strengthening since the 1980s is observed. The combined assessment of ocean hydrography data and model results indicates that the expected anthropogenic weakening of the THC will remain within the range of natural variability during the next several decades

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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is part of a global redistribution system in the ocean that carries vast amounts of mass, heat, and freshwater. Within the AMOC, water mass transformations in the Nordic Seas (NS) and the overflows across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR) contribute significantly to the overturning mass transport. The deep NS are separated by the GSR from direct exchange with the subpolar North Atlantic. Two deeper passages, Denmark Strait (DS, sill depth 630 m) and Faroe Bank Channel (FBC, sill depth 840 m), constrain the deep outflow. The outflow transports are assumed to be governed by hydraulic control (Whitehead 1989, 1998). According to the circulation scheme by Dickson and Brown (1994), there is an overflow of 2.9 Sv (1 Sv = 1 Sverdrup = 106 m3 s–1) through DS, 1.7 Sv through FBC and another 1 Sv from flow across the Iceland%Faroe Ridge (IFR). To the south of the GSR, the overflows sink to depth and then spread along the topography, eventually merging to form a deep boundary current in the western Irminger Sea. During the descent, the dense bottom water flow doubles its volume by entrainment of ambient waters (e.g. Price and Baringer 1994) so that there is a deep water transport of 13.3 Sv once the boundary current reaches Cape Farvel (Dickson and Brown 1994). Thus the overflows and the overflow-related part of the AMOC account for more than 70% of the maximum total overturning, which is estimated from observations to be about 18 Sv (e.g. Macdonald 1998

The impact of polar mesoscale storms on northeast Atlantic Ocean circulation

Atmospheric processes regulate the formation of deep water in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean and hence influence the large-scale ocean circulation. Every year thousands of mesoscale storms, termed polar lows, cross this climatically sensitive region of the ocean. These storms are often either too small or too short-lived to be captured in meteorological re-analyses or numerical models2–4. Here we present simulations with a global, eddy-permitting ocean/sea-ice circulation model, run with and without a parameterization of polar lows. The parameterization reproduces the high wind speeds and heat fluxes observed in polar lows as well as their integrated effects, and leads to increases in the simulated depth, frequency and area of deep convection in the Nordic seas, which in turn leads to a larger northward transport of heat into the region, and southward transport of deep water through Denmark Strait