Modelling cyclists’ comfort zones from obstacle avoidance manoeuvres

This paper introduces a framework for modelling the cyclist’s comfort zone. Unlike the driver’s comfort zone, little is known about the cyclist’s. The framework draws on existing literature in cognitive science about driver behaviour to explain experimental results from cycling field trials, and the modelling of these results. We modelled braking and steering manoeuvres from field data of cyclists’ obstacle avoidance within their comfort zone. Results show that when cyclists avoided obstacles by braking, they kept a constant deceleration; as speed increased, they started to brake earlier, farther from the obstacle, maintaining an almost constant time to collision. When cyclists avoided obstacles by steering, they maintained a constant distance from the object, independent of speed. Overall, the higher the speed, the more the steering manoeuvres were temporally delayed compared to braking manoeuvres. We discuss these results and other similarities between cyclist and driver behaviour during obstacle avoidance. Implications for the design of acceptable active safety and infrastructure design are also addressed

Seasonal and interannual effects of hypoxia on fish habitat quality in central Lake Erie

1. Hypoxia occurs seasonally in many stratified coastal marine and freshwater ecosystems when bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations are depleted below 2–3 mg O2 L-1. 2. We evaluated the effects of hypoxia on fish habitat quality in the central basin of Lake Erie from 1987 to 2005, using bioenergetic growth rate potential (GRP) as a proxy for habitat quality. We compared the effect of hypoxia on habitat quality of (i) rainbow smelt, Osmerus mordax mordax Mitchill (young-of-year, YOY, and adult), a cold-water planktivore, (ii) emerald shiner, Notropis atherinoides Rafinesque (adult), a warm-water planktivore, (iii) yellow perch, Perca flavescens Mitchill (YOY and adult), a cool-water benthopelagic omnivore and (iv) round goby Neogobius melanostomus Pallas (adult) a eurythermal benthivore. Annual thermal and DO profiles were generated from 1D thermal and DO hydrodynamics models developed for Lake Erie’s central basin. 3. Hypoxia occurred annually, typically from mid-July to mid-October, which spatially and temporally overlaps with otherwise high benthic habitat quality. Hypoxia reduced the habitat quality across fish species and life stages, but the magnitude of the reduction varied both among and within species because of the differences in tolerance to low DO levels and warm-water temperatures. 4. Across years, trends in habitat quality mirrored trends in phosphorus concentration and water column oxygen demand in central Lake Erie. The per cent reduction in habitat quality owing to hypoxia was greatest for adult rainbow smelt and round goby (mean: -35%), followed by adult emerald shiner (mean: -12%), YOY rainbow smelt (mean: -10%) and YOY and adult yellow perch (mean: -8.5%). 5. Our results highlight the importance of differential spatiotemporally interactive effects of DO and temperature on relative fish habitat quality and quantity. These effects have the potential to influence the performance of individual fish species as well as population dynamics, trophic interactions and fish community structure

Temporal and spatial dynamics of large lake hypoxia: Integrating statistical and three‐dimensional dynamic models to enhance lake management criteria

Hypoxia or low bottom water dissolved oxygen (DO) is a world‐wide problem of management concern requiring an understanding and ability to monitor and predict its spatial and temporal dynamics. However, this is often made difficult in large lakes and coastal oceans because of limited spatial and temporal coverage of field observations. We used a calibrated and validated three‐dimensional ecological model of Lake Erie to extend a statistical relationship between hypoxic extent and bottom water DO concentrations to explore implications of the broader temporal and spatial development and dissipation of hypoxia. We provide the first numerical demonstration that hypoxia initiates in the nearshore, not the deep portion of the basin, and that the threshold used to define hypoxia matters in both spatial and temporal dynamics and in its sensitivity to climate. We show that existing monitoring programs likely underestimate both maximum hypoxic extent and the importance of low oxygen in the nearshore, discuss implications for ecosystem and drinking water protection, and recommend how these results could be used to efficiently and economically extend monitoring programs.Key Points:We modeled seasonal and spatial dynamics of Lake Erie hypoxiaWe showed hypoxia starts nearshore and can persist after traditional monitoring programs endWe recommend monitoring adjustments and explore impacts of different hypoxia definitionsPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/133547/1/wrcr22074.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/133547/2/wrcr22074-sup-0001-2015WR018170-s01.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/133547/3/wrcr22074_am.pd

Optimizing Therapy to Prevent Avoidable Hospital Admissions in Multimorbid Older Adults (OPERAM): cluster randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE To examine the effect of optimising drug treatment on drug related hospital admissions in older adults with multimorbidity and polypharmacy admitted to hospital. DESIGN Cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING 110 clusters of inpatient wards within university based hospitals in four European countries (Switzerland, Netherlands, Belgium, and Republic of Ireland) defined by attending hospital doctors. PARTICIPANTS 2008 older adults (≥70 years) with multimorbidity (≥3 chronic conditions) and polypharmacy (≥5 drugs used long term). INTERVENTION Clinical staff clusters were randomised to usual care or a structured pharmacotherapy optimisation intervention performed at the individual level jointly by a doctor and a pharmacist, with the support of a clinical decision software system deploying the screening tool of older person's prescriptions and screening tool to alert to the right treatment (STOPP/START) criteria to identify potentially inappropriate prescribing. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Primary outcome was first drug related hospital admission within 12 months. RESULTS 2008 older adults (median nine drugs) were randomised and enrolled in 54 intervention clusters (963 participants) and 56 control clusters (1045 participants) receiving usual care. In the intervention arm, 86.1% of participants (n=789) had inappropriate prescribing, with a mean of 2.75 (SD 2.24) STOPP/START recommendations for each participant. 62.2% (n=491) had ≥1 recommendation successfully implemented at two months, predominantly discontinuation of potentially inappropriate drugs. In the intervention group, 211 participants (21.9%) experienced a first drug related hospital admission compared with 234 (22.4%) in the control group. In the intention-to-treat analysis censored for death as competing event (n=375, 18.7%), the hazard ratio for first drug related hospital admission was 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.77 to 1.17). In the per protocol analysis, the hazard ratio for a drug related hospital admission was 0.91 (0.69 to 1.19). The hazard ratio for first fall was 0.96 (0.79 to 1.15; 237 v 263 first falls) and for death was 0.90 (0.71 to 1.13; 172 v 203 deaths). CONCLUSIONS Inappropriate prescribing was common in older adults with multimorbidity and polypharmacy admitted to hospital and was reduced through an intervention to optimise pharmacotherapy, but without effect on drug related hospital admissions. Additional efforts are needed to identify pharmacotherapy optimisation interventions that reduce inappropriate prescribing and improve patient outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02986425

Can we learn from the pathogenetic strategies of group A hemolytic streptococci how tissues are injured and organs fail in post-infectious and inflammatory sequelae?

The purpose of this review-hypothesis is to discuss the literature which had proposed the concept that the mechanisms by which infectious and inflammatory processes induce cell and tissue injury, in vivo, might paradoxically involve a deleterious synergistic ‘cross-talk’, among microbial- and host-derived pro-inflammatory agonists. This argument is based on studies of the mechanisms of tissue damage caused by catalase-negative group A hemolytic streptococci and also on a large body of evidence describing synergistic interactions among a multiplicity of agonists leading to cell and tissue damage in inflammatory and infectious processes. A very rapid cell damage (necrosis), accompanied by the release of large amounts of arachidonic acid and metabolites, could be induced when subtoxic amounts of oxidants (superoxide, oxidants generated by xanthine-xanthine oxidase, HOCl, NO), synergized with subtoxic amounts of a large series of membrane-perforating agents (streptococcal and other bacterial-derived hemolysins, phospholipases A 2 and C, lysophosphatides, cationic proteins, fatty acids, xenobiotics, the attack complex of complement and certain cytokines). Subtoxic amounts of proteinases (elastase, cathepsin G, plasmin, trypsin) very dramatically further enhanced cell damage induced by combinations between oxidants and the membrane perforators. Thus, irrespective of the source of agonists, whether derived from microorganisms or from the hosts, a triad comprised of an oxidant, a membrane perforator, and a proteinase constitutes a potent cytolytic cocktail the activity of which may be further enhanced by certain cytokines. The role played by non-biodegradable microbial cell wall components (lipopolysaccharide, lipoteichoic acid, peptidoglycan) released following polycation- and antibiotic-induced bacteriolysis in the activation of macrophages to release oxidants, cytolytic cytokines and NO is also discussed in relation to the pathophysiology of granulomatous inflammation and sepsis. The recent failures to prevent septic shock by the administration of only single antagonists is disconcerting. It suggests, however, that since tissue damage in post-infectious syndromes is caused by synergistic interactions among a multiplicity of agents, only cocktails of appropriate antagonists, if administered at the early phase of infection and to patients at high risk, might prevent the development of post-infectious syndromes.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/72535/1/j.1574-695X.1999.tb01357.x.pd

PosterSchwabICSC2017.pdf

<div>Determining the necessary width of a bicycle lane by means</div><div>of simulations on a bicycle-rider model</div

Determining the necessary width of a bicycle lane by means of simulations on a bicycle-rider model.

This article is part of the Proceedings of the 6th Annual International Cycling Safety Conference held in Davis, California, USA on September 20th through 23rd in the year 2017.<br><br>Paper ID: 6