Projecting coral responses to intensifying marine heatwaves under ocean acidification

Over this century, coral reefs will run the gauntlet of climate change, as marine heatwaves (MHWs) become more intense and frequent, and ocean acidification (OA) progresses. However, we still lack a quantitative assessment of how, and to what degree, OA will moderate the responses of corals to MHWs as they intensify throughout this century. Here, we first projected future MHW intensities for tropical regions under three future greenhouse gas emissions scenario (representative concentration pathways, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the near-term (2021-2040), mid-century (2041-2060) and late-century (2081-2100). We then combined these MHW intensity projections with a global data set of 1,788 experiments to assess coral attribute performance and survival under the three emissions scenarios for the near-term, mid-century and late-century in the presence and absence of OA. Although warming and OA had predominately additive impacts on the coral responses, the contribution of OA in affecting most coral attributes was minor relative to the dominant role of intensifying MHWs. However, the addition of OA led to greater decreases in photosynthesis and survival under intermediate and unrestricted emissions scenario for the mid- and late-century than if intensifying MHWs were considered as the only driver. These results show that role of OA in modulating coral responses to intensifying MHWs depended on the focal coral attribute and extremity of the scenario examined. Specifically, intensifying MHWs and OA will cause increasing instances of coral bleaching and substantial declines in coral productivity, calcification and survival within the next two decades under the low and intermediate emissions scenario. These projections suggest that corals must rapidly adapt or acclimatize to projected ocean conditions to persist, which is far more likely under a low emissions scenario and with increasing efforts to manage reefs to enhance resilience

Projecting coral responses to intensifying marine heatwaves under ocean acidification

Over this century, coral reefs will run the gauntlet of climate change, as marine heatwaves (MHWs) become more intense and frequent, and ocean acidification (OA) progresses. However, we still lack a quantitative assessment of how, and to what degree, OA will moderate the responses of corals to MHWs as they intensify throughout this century. Here, we first projected future MHW intensities for tropical regions under three future greenhouse gas emissions scenario (representative concentration pathways, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the near-term (2021–2040), mid-century (2041–2060) and late-century (2081–2100). We then combined these MHW intensity projections with a global data set of 1,788 experiments to assess coral attribute performance and survival under the three emissions scenarios for the near-term, mid-century and late-century in the presence and absence of OA. Although warming and OA had predominately additive impacts on the coral responses, the contribution of OA in affecting most coral attributes was minor relative to the dominant role of intensifying MHWs. However, the addition of OA led to greater decreases in photosynthesis and survival under intermediate and unrestricted emissions scenario for the mid- and late-century than if intensifying MHWs were considered as the only driver. These results show that role of OA in modulating coral responses to intensifying MHWs depended on the focal coral attribute and extremity of the scenario examined. Specifically, intensifying MHWs and OA will cause increasing instances of coral bleaching and substantial declines in coral productivity, calcification and survival within the next two decades under the low and intermediate emissions scenario. These projections suggest that corals must rapidly adapt or acclimatize to projected ocean conditions to persist, which is far more likely under a low emissions scenario and with increasing efforts to manage reefs to enhance resilience

Integrating environmental variability to broaden the research on coral responses to future ocean conditions

Our understanding of the response of reef-building corals to changes in their physical environment is largely based on laboratory experiments, analysis of long-term field data, and model projections. Experimental data provide unique insights into how organisms respond to variation of environmental drivers. However, an assessment of how well experimental conditions cover the breadth of environmental conditions and variability where corals live successfully is missing. Here, we compiled and analyzed a globally distributed dataset of in-situ seasonal and diurnal variability of key environmental drivers (temperature, pCO2, and O2) critical for the growth and livelihood of reef-building corals. Using a meta-analysis approach, we compared the variability of environmental conditions assayed in coral experimental studies to current and projected conditions in their natural habitats. We found that annual temperature profiles projected for the end of the 21st century were characterized by distributional shifts in temperatures with warmer winters and longer warm periods in the summer, not just peak temperatures. Furthermore, short-term hourly fluctuations of temperature and pCO2 may regularly expose corals to conditions beyond the projected average increases for the end of the 21st century. Coral reef sites varied in the degree of coupling between temperature, pCO2, and dissolved O2, which warrants site-specific, differentiated experimental approaches depending on the local hydrography and influence of biological processes on the carbonate system and O2 availability. Our analysis highlights that a large portion of the natural environmental variability at short and long timescales is underexplored in experimental designs, which may provide a path to extend our understanding on the response of corals to global climate change

Pervasiveness of the IQ Rise: A Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis

Background: Generational IQ gains in the general population (termed the Flynn effect) show an erratic pattern across different nations as well as across different domains of intelligence (fluid vs crystallized). Gains of fluid intelligence in different countries have been subject to extensive research, but less attention was directed towards gains of crystallized intelligence, probably due to evidence from the Anglo-American sphere suggesting only slight gains on this measure. In the present study, development of crystallized intelligence in the German speaking general population is assessed. Methodology/Principal Findings: To investigate whether IQ gains for crystallized intelligence are in progress in Germanspeaking countries, two independent meta-analyses were performed. By means of a cited reference search in ISI Web of Science, all studies citing test manuals and review articles of two widely-used salient measures of crystallized intelligence were obtained. Additionally, the electronic database for German academic theses was searched to identify unpublished studies employing these tests. All studies reporting participants mean IQ or raw scores of at least one of the two measures were included in the present analyses, yielding over 500 studies (.1,000 samples;.45,000 individuals). We found a significant positive association between years of test performance and intelligence (1971–2007) amounting to about 3.5 IQ points per decade. Conclusions/Significance: This study clearly demonstrates that crystallized IQ gains are substantial and of comparabl

Unraveling the role of local ablative therapies for patients with metastatic soft tissue sarcoma – a retrospective multicenter study of the Bavarian university hospitals

Background Local ablative therapies (LAT) are increasingly used in patients with metastatic soft tissue sarcoma (STS), yet evidence-based standards are lacking. This study aimed to assess the impact of LAT on survival of metastatic STS patients and to identify prognostic factors. Methods In this retrospective multicenter study, 246 STS patients with metastatic disease who underwent LAT on tumor board recommendation between 2017 and 2021 were analyzed. A mixed effects model was applied to evaluate multiple survival events per patient. Results Median overall survival (OS) after first metastasis was 5.4 years with 1-, 2- and 5-year survival rates of 93.7, 81.7, and 53.1%, respectively. A treatment-free interval ≥12 months and treatment of liver metastases were positively correlated with progression-free survival (PFS) after LAT (HR=0.61, p=0.00032 and HR=0.52, p=0.0081, respectively). A treatment-free interval ≥12 months and treatment of metastatic lesions in a single organ site other than lung and liver were positive prognostic factors for OS after first LAT (HR=0.50, p=0.028 and HR=0.40, p=0.026, respectively) while rare histotypes and LAT other than surgery and radiotherapy were negatively associated with OS after first LAT (HR=2.56, p=0.020 and HR=3.87, p=0.025). Additional systemic therapy was independently associated with a PFS benefit in patients ≤60 years with ≥4 metastatic lesions (for max. diameter of treated lesions ≤2cm: HR=0.32, p=0.02 and >2cm: HR=0.20, p=0.0011, respectively). Conclusion This multicenter study conducted at six German university hospitals underlines the value of LAT in metastatic STS. The exceptionally high survival rates are likely to be associated with patient selection and treatment in specialized sarcoma centers

Impact of EU regulatory label changes for diclofenac in people with cardiovascular disease in four countries:interrupted time series regression analysis

Objective: Due to cardiovascular safety concerns, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) recommended new contraindications and changes to product information for diclofenac across Europe in 2013. This study aims to measure their impact among targeted populations. Method: Quarterly interrupted time series regression (ITS) analyses of diclofenac initiation among cohorts with contraindications (congestive cardiac failure [CHF], ischaemic heart disease [IHD], peripheral arterial disease [PAD], cerebrovascular disease [CVD]) and cautions (hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, diabetes) from Denmark, the Netherlands, England and Scotland. Results: The regulatory action was associated with significant immediate absolute reductions in diclofenac initiation in all countries for IHD (Denmark −0.08%, 95%CI −0.13, −0.03; England −0.09%, 95%CI −0.13 to −0.06%; the Netherlands −1.84%, 95%CI −2.51 to −1.17%; Scotland −0.34%, 95%CI −0.38 to −0.30%), PAD and hyperlipidaemia, the Netherlands, England and Scotland for hypertension and diabetes, and England and Scotland for CHF and CVD. Post-intervention there was a significant negative trend in diclofenac initiation in the Netherlands for IHD (−0.12%, 95%CI −0.19 to −0.04), PAD (−0.13%, 95%CI −0.22 to −0.05), hypertension, hyperlipidaemia and diabetes, and in Scotland for CHF (−0.01%, 95%CI −0.02 to −0.007%), IHD (−0.017, 95%CI −0.02, −0.01%), PAD and hypertension. In England, diclofenac initiation rates fell less steeply. In Denmark changes were more strongly associated with the earlier EMA 2012 regulatory action. Conclusion: Although significant reductions in diclofenac initiation occurred, patients with contraindications continued to be prescribed diclofenac, the extent of which varied by country and target condition. Understanding reasons for such variation may help to guide the design or dissemination of future safety warnings

Parent-of-origin-specific allelic associations among 106 genomic loci for age at menarche.

Age at menarche is a marker of timing of puberty in females. It varies widely between individuals, is a heritable trait and is associated with risks for obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer and all-cause mortality. Studies of rare human disorders of puberty and animal models point to a complex hypothalamic-pituitary-hormonal regulation, but the mechanisms that determine pubertal timing and underlie its links to disease risk remain unclear. Here, using genome-wide and custom-genotyping arrays in up to 182,416 women of European descent from 57 studies, we found robust evidence (P < 5 × 10(-8)) for 123 signals at 106 genomic loci associated with age at menarche. Many loci were associated with other pubertal traits in both sexes, and there was substantial overlap with genes implicated in body mass index and various diseases, including rare disorders of puberty. Menarche signals were enriched in imprinted regions, with three loci (DLK1-WDR25, MKRN3-MAGEL2 and KCNK9) demonstrating parent-of-origin-specific associations concordant with known parental expression patterns. Pathway analyses implicated nuclear hormone receptors, particularly retinoic acid and γ-aminobutyric acid-B2 receptor signalling, among novel mechanisms that regulate pubertal timing in humans. Our findings suggest a genetic architecture involving at least hundreds of common variants in the coordinated timing of the pubertal transition

Differential limit on the extremely-high-energy cosmic neutrino flux in the presence of astrophysical background from nine years of IceCube data

We report a quasi-differential upper limit on the extremely-high-energy (EHE) neutrino flux above $5\times 10^{6}$ GeV based on an analysis of nine years of IceCube data. The astrophysical neutrino flux measured by IceCube extends to PeV energies, and it is a background flux when searching for an independent signal flux at higher energies, such as the cosmogenic neutrino signal. We have developed a new method to place robust limits on the EHE neutrino flux in the presence of an astrophysical background, whose spectrum has yet to be understood with high precision at PeV energies. A distinct event with a deposited energy above $10^{6}$ GeV was found in the new two-year sample, in addition to the one event previously found in the seven-year EHE neutrino search. These two events represent a neutrino flux that is incompatible with predictions for a cosmogenic neutrino flux and are considered to be an astrophysical background in the current study. The obtained limit is the most stringent to date in the energy range between $5 \times 10^{6}$ and $5 \times 10^{10}$ GeV. This result constrains neutrino models predicting a three-flavor neutrino flux of $E_\nu^2\phi_{\nu_e+\nu_\mu+\nu_\tau}\simeq2\times 10^{-8}\ {\rm GeV}/{\rm cm}^2\ \sec\ {\rm sr}$at$10^9\ {\rm GeV}$. A significant part of the parameter-space for EHE neutrino production scenarios assuming a proton-dominated composition of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays is excluded.Comment: The version accepted for publication in Physical Review

Satellite remote sensing data can be used to model marine microbial metabolite turnover

Sampling ecosystems, even at a local scale, at the temporal and spatial resolution necessary to capture natural variability in microbial communities are prohibitively expensive. We extrapolated marine surface microbial community structure and metabolic potential from 72 16S rRNA amplicon and 8 metagenomic observations using remotely sensed environmental parameters to create a system-scale model of marine microbial metabolism for 5904 grid cells (49 km2) in the Western English Chanel, across 3 years of weekly averages. Thirteen environmental variables predicted the relative abundance of 24 bacterial Orders and 1715 unique enzyme-encoding genes that encode turnover of 2893 metabolites. The genes’ predicted relative abundance was highly correlated (Pearson Correlation 0.72, P-value <10−6) with their observed relative abundance in sequenced metagenomes. Predictions of the relative turnover (synthesis or consumption) of CO2 were significantly correlated with observed surface CO2 fugacity. The spatial and temporal variation in the predicted relative abundances of genes coding for cyanase, carbon monoxide and malate dehydrogenase were investigated along with the predicted inter-annual variation in relative consumption or production of ~3000 metabolites forming six significant temporal clusters. These spatiotemporal distributions could possibly be explained by the co-occurrence of anaerobic and aerobic metabolisms associated with localized plankton blooms or sediment resuspension, which facilitate the presence of anaerobic micro-niches. This predictive model provides a general framework for focusing future sampling and experimental design to relate biogeochemical turnover to microbial ecology

Pulmonary Hypertension in Adults with Congenital Heart Disease: Real-World Data from the International COMPERA-CHD Registry

Introduction: Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a common complication in patients with congenital heart disease (CHD), aggravating the natural, post-operative, or post-interventional course of the underlying anomaly. The various CHDs differ substantially in characteristics, functionality, and clinical outcomes among each other and compared with other diseases with pulmonary hypertension. Objective: To describe current management strategies and outcomes for adults with PH in relation to different types of CHD based on real-world data. Methods and results: COMPERA (Comparative, Prospective Registry of Newly Initiated Therapies for Pulmonary Hypertension) is a prospective, international PH registry comprising, at the time of data analysis, >8200 patients with various forms of PH. Here, we analyzed a subgroup of 680 patients with PH due to CHD, who were included between 2007 and 2018 in 49 specialized centers for PH and/or CHD located in 11 European countries. At enrollment, the patients’ median age was 44 years (67% female), and patients had either pre-tricuspid shunts, post-tricuspid shunts, complex CHD, congenital left heart or aortic disease, or miscellaneous other types of CHD. Upon inclusion, targeted therapies for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) included endothelin receptor antagonists, PDE-5 inhibitors, prostacyclin analogues, and soluble guanylate cyclase stimulators. Eighty patients with Eisenmenger syndrome were treatment-naïve. While at inclusion the primary PAH treatment for the cohort was monotherapy (70% of patients), with 30% of the patients on combination therapy, after a median observation time of 45.3 months, the number of patients on combination therapy had increased significantly, to 50%. The use of oral anticoagulants or antiplatelets was dependent on the underlying diagnosis or comorbidities. In the entire COMPERA-CHD cohort, after follow-up and receiving targeted PAH therapy (n = 511), 91 patients died over the course of a 5-year follow up. The 5-year Kaplan–Meier survival estimate for CHD associated PH was significantly better than that for idiopathic PAH (76% vs. 54%; p < 0.001). Within the CHD associated PH group, survival estimates differed particularly depending on the underlying diagnosis and treatment status. Conclusions: In COMPERA-CHD, the overall survival of patients with CHD associated PH was dependent on the underlying diagnosis and treatment status, but was significantly better as than that for idiopathic PAH. Nevertheless, overall survival of patients with PAH due to CHD was still markedly reduced compared with survival of patients with other types of CHD, despite an increasing number of patients on PAH-targeted combination therapy