Joint inversion estimate of regional glacial isostatic adjustment in Antarctica considering a lateral varying Earth structure (ESA STSE Project REGINA)

A major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements of satellite gravimetry, and to a lesser extent satellite altimetry, is the poorly known correction for the ongoing deformation of the solid Earth caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Although much progress has been made in consistently modelling the ice-sheet evolution throughout the last glacial cycle, as well as the induced bedrock deformation caused by these load changes, forward models of GIA remain ambiguous due to the lack of observational constraints on the ice sheet's past extent and thickness and mantle rheology beneath the continent. As an alternative to forward modelling GIA, we estimate GIA from multiple space-geodetic observations: GRACE, Envisat/ICESat and GPS. Making use of the different sensitivities of the respective satellite observations to current and past surface mass (ice mass) change and solid Earth processes, we estimate GIA based on viscoelastic response functions to disc load forcing. We calculate and distribute the viscoelastic response functions according to estimates of the variability of lithosphere thickness and mantle viscosity in Antarctica. We compare our GIA estimate with published GIA corrections and evaluate its impact in determining the ice mass balance in Antarctica from GRACE and satellite altimetry. Particular focus is applied to the Amundsen Sea Sector in West Antarctica, where uplift rates of several cm/yr have been measured by GPS. We show that most of this uplift is caused by the rapid viscoelastic response to recent ice-load changes, enabled by the presence of a low-viscosity upper mantle in West Antarctica. This paper presents the second and final contribution summarizing the work carried out within a European Space Agency funded study, REGINA, (www.regina-science.eu)

Altimetry, gravimetry, GPS and viscoelastic modeling data for the joint inversion for glacial isostatic adjustment in Antarctica (ESA STSE Project REGINA)

The poorly known correction for the ongoing deformation of the solid Earth caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is a major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements of satellite gravimetry and to a lesser extent satellite altimetry. In the past decade, much progress has been made in consistently modeling ice sheet and solid Earth interactions; however, forward-modeling solutions of GIA in Antarctica remain uncertain due to the sparsity of constraints on the ice sheet evolution, as well as the Earth's rheological properties. An alternative approach towards estimating GIA is the joint inversion of multiple satellite data – namely, satellite gravimetry, satellite altimetry and GPS, which reflect, with different sensitivities, trends in recent glacial changes and GIA. Crucial to the success of this approach is the accuracy of the space-geodetic data sets. Here, we present reprocessed rates of surface-ice elevation change (Envisat/Ice, Cloud,and land Elevation Satellite, ICESat; 2003–2009), gravity field change (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE; 2003–2009) and bedrock uplift (GPS; 1995–2013). The data analysis is complemented by the forward modeling of viscoelastic response functions to disc load forcing, allowing us to relate GIA-induced surface displacements with gravity changes for different rheological parameters of the solid Earth. The data and modeling results presented here are available in the PANGAEA database (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.875745). The data sets are the input streams for the joint inversion estimate of present-day ice-mass change and GIA, focusing on Antarctica. However, the methods, code and data provided in this paper can be used to solve other problems, such as volume balances of the Antarctic ice sheet, or can be applied to other geographical regions in the case of the viscoelastic response functions. This paper presents the first of two contributions summarizing the work carried out within a European Space Agency funded study: Regional glacial isostatic adjustment and CryoSat elevation rate corrections in Antarctica (REGINA)

Constraining the mass balance of East Antarctica

We investigate the mass balance of East Antarctica for the period 2003-2013 using a Bayesian statistical framework. We combine satellite altimetry, gravimetry, and GPS with prior assumptions characterizing the underlying geophysical processes. We run three experiments based on two different assumptions to study possible solutions to the mass balance. We solve for trends in surface mass balance, ice dynamics, and glacial isostatic adjustment. The first assumption assigns low probability to ice dynamic mass loss in regions of slow flow, giving a mean dynamic trend of 17 ± 10 Gt yr-1 and a total mass imbalance of 57 ± 20 Gt yr-1. The second assumption considers a long-term dynamic thickening hypothesis and an a priori solution for surface mass balance from a regional climate model. The latter results in estimates 3 to 5 times larger for the ice dynamic trends but similar total mass imbalance. In both cases, gains in East Antarctica are smaller than losses in West Antarctica

Geodetic measurements reveal similarities between post–Last Glacial Maximum and present-day mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet

Accurate quantification of the millennial-scale mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to global sea-level rise remain challenging because of sparse in situ observations in key regions. Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is the ongoing response of the solid Earth to ice and ocean load changes occurring since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 thousand years ago) and may be used to constrain the GrIS deglaciation history. We use data from the Greenland Global Positioning System network to directly measure GIA and estimate basin-wide mass changes since the LGM. Unpredicted, large GIA uplift rates of +12 mm/year are found in southeast Greenland. These rates are due to low upper mantle viscosity in the region, from when Greenland passed over the Iceland hot spot about 40 million years ago. This region of concentrated soft rheology has a profound influence on reconstructing the deglaciation history of Greenland. We reevaluate the evolution of the GrIS since LGM and obtain a loss of 1.5-m sea-level equivalent from the northwest and southeast. These same sectors are dominating modern mass loss. We suggest that the present destabilization of these marine-based sectors may increase sea level for centuries to come. Our new deglaciation history and GIA uplift estimates suggest that studies that use the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission to infer present-day changes in the GrIS may have erroneously corrected for GIA and underestimated the mass loss by about 20 gigatons/year

Mass balance reassessment of glaciers draining into the Abbot and Getz Ice Shelves of West Antarctica

We present a reassessment of input-output method ice mass budget estimates for the Abbot and Getz regions of West Antarctica using CryoSat-2-derived ice thickness estimates. The mass budget is 8 ± 6 Gt yr−1 and 5 ± 17 Gt yr−1 for the Abbot and Getz sectors, respectively, for the period 2006–2008. Over the Abbot region, our results resolve a previous discrepancy with elevation rates from altimetry, due to a previous 30% overestimation of ice thickness. For the Getz sector, our results are at the more positive bound of estimates from other techniques. Grounding line velocity increases up to 20% between 2007 and 2014 alongside mean elevation rates of −0.67 ± 0.13 m yr−1 between 2010 and 2013 indicate the onset of a dynamic thinning signal. Mean snowfall trends of −0.33 m yr−1 water equivalent since 2006 indicate recent mass trends are driven by both ice dynamics and surface processes

Extensive retreat of Greenland tidewater glaciers 2000-2010

Overall mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet nearly doubled during the early 2000s resulting in an increased contribution to sea-level rise, with this step-change being mainly attributed to the widespread frontal retreat and accompanying dynamic thinning of tidewater glaciers. Changes in glacier calving-front positions are easily derived from remotely sensed imagery and provide a record of dynamic change. However, ice-sheet-wide studies of calving fronts have been either spatially or temporally limited. In this study multiple calving-front positions were derived for 199 Greenland marine-terminating outlet glaciers with width greater than 1 km using Landsat imagery for the 11-year period 2000–2010 in order to identify regional seasonal and inter-annual variations. During this period, outlet glaciers were characterized by sustained and substantial retreat summing to more than 267 km, with only 11 glaciers showing overall advance. In general, the pattern of mass loss detected by GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) and other measurements is reflected in the calving record of Greenland glaciers. Our results suggest several regions in the south and east of the ice sheet likely share controls on their dynamic changes, but no simple single control is apparent

Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020

Ice losses from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have accelerated since the 1990s, accounting for a significant increase in the global mean sea level. Here, we present a new 29-year record of ice sheet mass balance from 1992 to 2020 from the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE). We compare and combine 50 independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance derived from satellite observations of temporal changes in ice sheet flow, in ice sheet volume, and in Earth's gravity field. Between 1992 and 2020, the ice sheets contributed 21.0±1.9g€¯mm to global mean sea level, with the rate of mass loss rising from 105g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 between 1992 and 1996 to 372g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 between 2016 and 2020. In Greenland, the rate of mass loss is 169±9g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 between 1992 and 2020, but there are large inter-annual variations in mass balance, with mass loss ranging from 86g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 in 2017 to 444g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1 in 2019 due to large variability in surface mass balance. In Antarctica, ice losses continue to be dominated by mass loss from West Antarctica (82±9g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1) and, to a lesser extent, from the Antarctic Peninsula (13±5g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1). East Antarctica remains close to a state of balance, with a small gain of 3±15g€¯Gtg€¯yr-1, but is the most uncertain component of Antarctica's mass balance. The dataset is publicly available at 10.5285/77B64C55-7166-4A06-9DEF-2E400398E452 (IMBIE Team, 2021)

Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change

Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1{\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global warming. Thus goals to limit human-made warming to 2{\deg}C are not sufficient - they are prescriptions for disaster. Ice sheet disintegration is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. We suggest that ice sheet mass loss, if warming continues unabated, will be characterized better by a doubling time for mass loss rate than by a linear trend. Satellite gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level rise this century. Observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss supports our conclusion that Earth's temperature now exceeds the mean Holocene value. Rapid reduction of fossil fuel emissions is required for humanity to succeed in preserving a planet resembling the one on which civilization developed.Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures; final version accepted for publication in "Climate Change at the Eve of the Second Decade of the Century: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects: Proceedings of Milutin Milankovitch 130th Anniversary Symposium" (eds. Berger, Mesinger and Sijaci

Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018

In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise1,2, and it is expected to be so in the future3. Although increases in glacier flow4–6 and surface melting7–9 have been driven by oceanic10–12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the degree and trajectory of today’s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. Although the ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 335 ± 62 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,800 ± 339 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.6 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,971 ± 555 billion tonnes (52%) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,827 ± 538 billion tonnes (48%) of ice loss was due to increased glacier discharge, which rose from 41 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. Between 2013 and 2017, the total rate of ice loss slowed to 217 ± 32 billion tonnes per year, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and as ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the IPCC’s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 50 to 120 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate