Validation of MPI-ESM Decadal Hindcast Experiments with Terrestrial Water Storage Variations as Observed by the GRACE Satellite Mission

Time-variations in the gravity field as observed by the GRACE mission provide for the first time quantitative estimates of the terrestrial water storage (TWS) at monthly resolution over one decade (2002–2011). TWS from GRACE is applied here to validate three different ensemble sets of decadal hindcasts performed with the coupled climate model MPI-ESM within the German research project MiKlip. Those experiments differ in terms of the applied low (LR) and medium (MR) spatial resolution configuration of MPI-ESM, as well as by the applied ensemble initialization strategy, where ocean-only (b0) is replaced by atmosphere and ocean (b1) anomaly initialization. Moderately positive skill scores of the initialized hindcasts are obtained both with respect to the zero anomaly forecast and the uninitialized projections in particular for lead year 1 in moderate to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Skill scores gradually increase when moving from b0-LR to b1-LR, and less prominent also for b1-LR to b1-MR, thereby documenting improvements of the MPI-ESM decadal climate prediction system during the most recent years

Glacial isostatic adjustment and sea level change near Berkner Island, Antarctica

The glacial-isostatic adjustment in Iceland resulting from the recent melting of the Vatnajökull ice cap is controlled by the viscosity distribution in the earth's interior and by the details of the melting history. Interpretations of the results of GPS and gravity measuring campaigns in the time interval 1991-2000 and 1992-1999, respectively, by means of laterally homogeneous earth models for the determination of the lithosphere thickness, the asthenosphere thickness and the asthenosphere viscosity have so far been not fully satisfactory. In particular near the ice margin, the fitting of the computed land uplift and gravity change to the observational data was inadequate, which may be related to the neglegt of the Iceland plume in the laterally homogeneous earth models. In the present study, a program package is used for the modelling of the land uplift and gravity change that allows the computation of load-induced perturbations of a Maxwell-viscoelastic, incompressible, self-gravitating, spherical earth model. To simulate the presence of the plume below the Vatnajökull, an axisymmetric viscosity distribution is used, where the plume radius and the plume viscosity are free parameters. Based on seismic results, a 6-km-thick lithosphere is assumed above the plume, which thickens to 35 km in the peripheral region of the plume. The melting history of the Vatnajökull is founded on interpretations of geomorphological and climatological investigations and is simulated by a load co-axial with the plume with parabolic profile and time-dependent radius. The results of the modelling favour a plume radius of ~80 km and a plume viscosity of (0.3-1.0) x 10^{18} Pa s.repor

rates of geoid height change and radial displacement due to present and past ice mass variations

This study is concerned with the forward modelling of the present-day glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) of the earth to present and past changes of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). We predict temporal variations in the geoid height and topographic height within the context of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission and terrestrial Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in Antarctica. We first adopt an elastic-compressible earth model and calculate the earth's response to seasonal (< 1 a) and secular (~ 100 a) ice-mass changes. Then, we consider a viscoelastic-incompressible earth model and determine the earth's response to the melting of the AIS since the last glacial maximum (LGM), i.e. the post-glacial rebound (PGR). Both models are radially symmetric and self gravitating. A range of viscosity values account for the uncertainty in the viscosity stratification and the lateral heterogeneity of the mantle beneath Antarctica. We employ six load models simulating the most important temporal aspects of the AIS's evolution. Finally, we predict the geoid-height change and the land uplift and compare them with recent GRACE observations and determinations of the uplift rate for the permanent GPS stations along the Antarctic coast.repor

Joint inversion estimate of regional glacial isostatic adjustment in Antarctica considering a lateral varying Earth structure (ESA STSE Project REGINA)

A major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements of satellite gravimetry, and to a lesser extent satellite altimetry, is the poorly known correction for the ongoing deformation of the solid Earth caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Although much progress has been made in consistently modelling the ice-sheet evolution throughout the last glacial cycle, as well as the induced bedrock deformation caused by these load changes, forward models of GIA remain ambiguous due to the lack of observational constraints on the ice sheet's past extent and thickness and mantle rheology beneath the continent. As an alternative to forward modelling GIA, we estimate GIA from multiple space-geodetic observations: GRACE, Envisat/ICESat and GPS. Making use of the different sensitivities of the respective satellite observations to current and past surface mass (ice mass) change and solid Earth processes, we estimate GIA based on viscoelastic response functions to disc load forcing. We calculate and distribute the viscoelastic response functions according to estimates of the variability of lithosphere thickness and mantle viscosity in Antarctica. We compare our GIA estimate with published GIA corrections and evaluate its impact in determining the ice mass balance in Antarctica from GRACE and satellite altimetry. Particular focus is applied to the Amundsen Sea Sector in West Antarctica, where uplift rates of several cm/yr have been measured by GPS. We show that most of this uplift is caused by the rapid viscoelastic response to recent ice-load changes, enabled by the presence of a low-viscosity upper mantle in West Antarctica. This paper presents the second and final contribution summarizing the work carried out within a European Space Agency funded study, REGINA, (www.regina-science.eu)

Updating ESA's Earth System Model for gravity mission simulation studies: 2. Comparison with the original model

The ability of any satellite gravity mission concept to monitor mass transport processes in the Earth system is typically tested well ahead of its implementation by means of various simulation studies. Those studies often extend from the simulation of realistic orbits and instrumental data all the way down to the retrieval of global gravity field solution time-series. Basic requirement for all these simulations are realistic representations of the spatio-temporal mass variability in the different sub-systems of the Earth, as a source model for the orbit computations. For such simulations, a suitable source model is required to represent (i) high-frequency (i.e., sub-daily to weekly) mass variability in the atmosphere and oceans, in order to realistically include the effects of temporal aliasing due to non-tidal high-frequency mass variability into the retrieved gravity fields. In parallel, (ii) low-frequency (i.e., monthly to interannual) variability needs to be modelled with realistic amplitudes, particularly at small spatial scales, in order to assess to what extent a new mission concept might provide further insight into physical processes currently not observable. The new source model documented here attempts to fulfil both requirements: Based on ECMWF’s recent atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim and corresponding simulations from numerical models of the other Earth system components, it offers spherical harmonic coefficients of the time-variable global gravity field due to mass variability in atmosphere, oceans, the terrestrial hydrosphere including the ice-sheets and glaciers, as well as the solid Earth. Simulated features range from sub-daily to multiyear periods with a spatial resolution of spherical harmonics degree and order 180 over a period of 12 years. In addition to the source model, a de-aliasing model for atmospheric and oceanic high-frequency variability with augmented systematic and random noise is required for a realistic simulation of the gravity field retrieval process, whose necessary error characteristics are discussed. The documentation is organized as follows: The characteristics of the updated ESM along with some basic validation are presented in Volume 1 of this report (Dobslaw et al., 2014). A detailed comparison to the original ESA ESM (Gruber et al., 2011) is provided in Volume 2 (Bergmann-Wolf et al., 2014), while Volume 3 (Forootan et al., 2014) contains a description of the strategy to derive a realistically noisy de-aliasing model for the high-frequency mass variability in atmosphere and oceans. The files of the updated ESA Earth System Model for gravity mission simulation studies are accessible at DOI:10.5880/GFZ.1.3.2014.001

Altimetry, gravimetry, GPS and viscoelastic modeling data for the joint inversion for glacial isostatic adjustment in Antarctica (ESA STSE Project REGINA)

The poorly known correction for the ongoing deformation of the solid Earth caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is a major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements of satellite gravimetry and to a lesser extent satellite altimetry. In the past decade, much progress has been made in consistently modeling ice sheet and solid Earth interactions; however, forward-modeling solutions of GIA in Antarctica remain uncertain due to the sparsity of constraints on the ice sheet evolution, as well as the Earth's rheological properties. An alternative approach towards estimating GIA is the joint inversion of multiple satellite data – namely, satellite gravimetry, satellite altimetry and GPS, which reflect, with different sensitivities, trends in recent glacial changes and GIA. Crucial to the success of this approach is the accuracy of the space-geodetic data sets. Here, we present reprocessed rates of surface-ice elevation change (Envisat/Ice, Cloud,and land Elevation Satellite, ICESat; 2003–2009), gravity field change (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE; 2003–2009) and bedrock uplift (GPS; 1995–2013). The data analysis is complemented by the forward modeling of viscoelastic response functions to disc load forcing, allowing us to relate GIA-induced surface displacements with gravity changes for different rheological parameters of the solid Earth. The data and modeling results presented here are available in the PANGAEA database (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.875745). The data sets are the input streams for the joint inversion estimate of present-day ice-mass change and GIA, focusing on Antarctica. However, the methods, code and data provided in this paper can be used to solve other problems, such as volume balances of the Antarctic ice sheet, or can be applied to other geographical regions in the case of the viscoelastic response functions. This paper presents the first of two contributions summarizing the work carried out within a European Space Agency funded study: Regional glacial isostatic adjustment and CryoSat elevation rate corrections in Antarctica (REGINA)

Updating ESA's Earth System Model for gravity mission simulation studies: 1. Model description and validation

The ability of any satellite gravity mission concept to monitor mass transport processes in the Earth system is typically tested well ahead of its implementation by means of various simulation studies. Those studies often extend from the simulation of realistic orbits and instrumental data all the way down to the retrieval of global gravity field solution time-series. Basic requirement for all these simulations are realistic representations of the spatio-temporal mass variability in the different sub-systems of the Earth, as a source model for the orbit computations. For such simulations, a suitable source model is required to represent (i) high-frequency (i.e., subdaily to weekly) mass variability in the atmosphere and oceans, in order to realistically include the effects of temporal aliasing due to non-tidal high-frequency mass variability into the retrieved gravity fields. In parallel, (ii) low-frequency (i.e., monthly to interannual) variability needs to be modelled with realistic amplitudes, particularly at small spatial scales, in order to assess to what extent a new mission concept might provide further insight into physical processes currently not observable. The new source model documented here attempts to fulfil both requirements: Based on ECMWF’s recent atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim and corresponding simulations from numerical models of the other Earth system components, it offers spherical harmonic coefficients of the time-variable global gravity field due to mass variability in atmosphere, oceans, the terrestrial hydrosphere including the ice-sheets and glaciers, as well as the solid Earth. Simulated features range from sub-daily to multiyear periods with a spatial resolution of spherical harmonics degree and order 180 over a period of 12 years. In addition to the source model, a de-aliasing model for atmospheric and oceanic high-frequency variability with augmented systematic and random noise is required for a realistic simulation of the gravity field retrieval process, whose necessary error characteristics are discussed. The documentation of the updated ESA Earth System Model (updated ESM) for gravity mission simulation studies is organized as follows: The characteristics of the updated ESM along with some basic validation is presented in Volume 1. A detailed comparison to the original ESA ESM (Gruber et al., 2011) is provided in Volume 2, while Volume 3 contains the description of a strategy to derive realistic errors for the de-aliasing model of high-frequency mass variability in atmosphere and ocean

Acceleration of dynamic ice loss in Antarctica from satellite gravimetry

The dynamic stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future global sea-level rise. Essential for improving projections of the ice sheet evolution is the understanding of the ongoing trends and accelerations of mass loss in the context of ice dynamics. Here, we examine accelerations of mass change of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2002 to 2020 using data from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment; 2002–2017) and its follow-on GRACE-FO (2018-present) satellite missions. By subtracting estimates of net snow accumulation provided by re-analysis data and regional climate models from GRACE/GRACE-FO mass changes, we isolate variations in ice-dynamic discharge and compare them to direct measurements based on the remote sensing of the surface-ice velocity (2002–2017). We show that variations in the GRACE/GRACE-FO time series are modulated by variations in regional snow accumulation caused by large-scale atmospheric circulation. We show for the first time that, after removal of these surface effects, accelerations of ice-dynamic discharge from GRACE/GRACE-FO agree well with those independently derived from surface-ice velocities. For 2002–2020, we recover a discharge acceleration of -5.3 ± 2.2 Gt yr−2 for the entire ice sheet; these increasing losses originate mainly in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea Embayment regions (68%), with additional significant contributions from Dronning Maud Land (18%) and the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf region (13%). Under the assumption that the recovered rates and accelerations of mass loss persisted independent of any external forcing, Antarctica would contribute 7.6 ± 2.9 cm to global mean sea-level rise by the year 2100, more than two times the amount of 2.9 ± 0.6 cm obtained by linear extrapolation of current GRACE/GRACE-FO mass loss trends

The German Young Geoscientists Group – promoting exchange and information among the next generation of geoscientists

The group „Young geoscientists” of the Senate Commission for Joint Geoscientific Research (Geokommisson, www.geokommission.de) of the German Research Foundation (DFG), is dedicated towards the development of the working environment, workforce and scientific outcome of the next generation of geoscientists in Germany.Geoscientific research – basic as, well as applied – provides crucial contributions for mastering the economic, environmental and societal challenges of the near and medium-term future. Politics and society call for immediate answers, while geoscientific phenomena are complex and act on a large range of temporal and spatial scales.These demands, together with increases mobility requirements, lead to increasing pressure especially on young geoscientists. In this situation the main goals of the group “Young geoscientists” are:Promotion of networking among young geoscientistsInformation about science policy developments, funding opportunities and other relevant mattersRepresenting the interests of young scientists towards (science)-policy makersThe dynamic development of geoscientific research, particularly collaborations across traditional disciplines, as well as in increasing demands from public and policy, calls for a continuous integration of young scientists. We promote this process by organizing round-table discussions, e.g. on “Guaranteeing good scientific praxis” or on “Hot topics and research funding”, by communicating information via the internet and by identifying structural deficiencies that might hinder the advancement of the geosciences and reporting them to decision makers. In this context, we are looking for:European or international collaboratorsYoung geoscientists wishing to participate in / contribute to our activitiesSuggestions on how to improve working conditions of the young and advancing geoscientists</ul

Constraining the mass balance of East Antarctica

We investigate the mass balance of East Antarctica for the period 2003-2013 using a Bayesian statistical framework. We combine satellite altimetry, gravimetry, and GPS with prior assumptions characterizing the underlying geophysical processes. We run three experiments based on two different assumptions to study possible solutions to the mass balance. We solve for trends in surface mass balance, ice dynamics, and glacial isostatic adjustment. The first assumption assigns low probability to ice dynamic mass loss in regions of slow flow, giving a mean dynamic trend of 17 ± 10 Gt yr-1 and a total mass imbalance of 57 ± 20 Gt yr-1. The second assumption considers a long-term dynamic thickening hypothesis and an a priori solution for surface mass balance from a regional climate model. The latter results in estimates 3 to 5 times larger for the ice dynamic trends but similar total mass imbalance. In both cases, gains in East Antarctica are smaller than losses in West Antarctica