Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P < 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Forouzanfar MH, Afshin A, Alexander LT, et al. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. LANCET. 2016;388(10053):1659-1724.Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57.8% (95% CI 56.6-58.8) of global deaths and 41.2% (39.8-42.8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211.8 million [192.7 million to 231.1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148.6 million [134.2 million to 163.1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143.1 million [125.1 million to 163.5 million]), high BMI (120.1 million [83.8 million to 158.4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113.3 million [103.9 million to 123.4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103.1 million [90.8 million to 115.1 million]), high total cholesterol (88.7 million [74.6 million to 105.7 million]), household air pollution (85.6 million [66.7 million to 106.1 million]), alcohol use (85.0 million [77.2 million to 93.0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83.0 million [49.3 million to 127.5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd

Use of Therapeutic Hypothermia Among Patients with Coagulation Disorders - A Nationwide Analysis

OBJECTIVES: The study aimed to assess the impact of therapeutic hypothermia (TH) on bleeding and in-hospital mortality among patients with coagulation disorders (CD). BACKGROUND: TH affects coagulation factors and platelets putting patients at risk for bleeding and worse outcomes. Effect of TH among patients with CD remains understudied. METHODS: Between 2009 and 2014, a total of 6469 cases of TH were identified using the National Inpatient Sample out of which 1036 (16.02%) had a CD. The incidence of bleeding events, blood product transfusion and in-hospital mortality was compared between patients with and without CD using one to one propensity score matching. RESULTS: Proportion of patients with CD increased during study duration from 13.0% to 17.4% from 2009 to 2014. Propensity matching was performed to adjust for baseline differences with 799 patients in both groups depending on presence or absence of CD. Patients with CD had a higher rate of bleeding events (13% vs. 8.5%; adjusted odds ratio 1.60; 95% confidence interval 1.16-2.23; P=0.004), and blood product transfusion (25.0% vs. 14.1%; aOR 2.03; 95% CI 1.56-2.63; p\u3c0.001) compared to those without CD. There was no difference in rate of intracranial bleeding or hemorrhagic strokes between those with and without CD (3.3% vs. 3.2%; p=0.88). There was no difference in mortality between patients with CD and those without (74.5% vs. 74.8%, aOR 0.98, 95% CI 0.78-1.23; P=0.86). CONCLUSIONS: Use of TH with CD resulted in more bleeding events and blood product transfusion but there was no difference in hospital mortality

Assessing the Physiological Relevance of Cough Simulators for Respiratory Droplet Dispersion

Various breathing and cough simulators have been used to model respiratory droplet dispersion and viral droplets, in particular for SARS-CoV-2 modeling. However, limited data are available comparing these cough simulations to physiological breathing and coughing. In this study, three different cough simulators (Teleflex Mucosal Atomization Device Nasal (MAD Nasal), a spray gun, and GloGermTM MIST) that have been used in the literature were studied to assess their physiologic relevance. Droplet size, velocity, dispersion, and force generated by the simulators were measured. Droplet size was measured with scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Slow-motion videography was used to 3D reconstruct and measure the velocity of each simulated cough. A force-sensitive resistor was used to measure the force of each simulated cough. The average size of droplets from each cough simulator was 176 to 220 µm. MAD Nasal, the spray gun, and GloGermTM MIST traveled 0.38 m, 0.89 m, and 1.62 m respectively. The average velocities for the MAD Nasal, spray gun, and GloGermTM MIST were 1.57 m/s, 2.60 m/s, and 9.27 m/s respectively, and all yielded a force of <0.5 Newtons. GloGermTM MIST and the spray gun most closely resemble physiological coughs and breathing respectively. In conclusion, none of the simulators tested accurately modeled all physiologic characteristics (droplet size, 3-D dispersion velocity, and force) of a cough, while there were various strengths and weaknesses of each method. One should take this into account when performing simulations with these devices

Use of therapeutic hypothermia among patients with coagulation disorders - A Nationwide analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The study aimed to assess the impact of therapeutic hypothermia (TH) on bleeding and in-hospital mortality among patients with coagulation disorders (CD). BACKGROUND: TH affects coagulation factors and platelets putting patients at risk for bleeding and worse outcomes. Effect of TH among patients with CD remains understudied. METHODS: Between 2009 and 2014, a total of 6469 cases of TH were identified using the National Inpatient Sample out of which 1036 (16.02%) had a CD. The incidence of bleeding events, blood product transfusion and in-hospital mortality was compared between patients with and without CD using one to one propensity score matching. RESULTS: Proportion of patients with CD increased during study duration from 13.0% to 17.4% from 2009 to 2014. Propensity matching was performed to adjust for baseline differences with 799 patients in both groups depending on presence or absence of CD. Patients with CD had a higher rate of bleeding events (13% vs. 8.5%; adjusted odds ratio 1.60; 95% confidence interval 1.16-2.23; P = 0.004), and blood product transfusion (25.0% vs. 14.1%; aOR 2.03; 95% CI 1.56-2.63; p \u3c 0.001) compared to those without CD. There was no difference in rate of intracranial bleeding or hemorrhagic strokes between those with and without CD (3.3% vs. 3.2%; p = 0.88). There was no difference in mortality between patients with CD and those without (74.5% vs. 74.8%, aOR 0.98, 95% CI 0.78-1.23; P = 0.86). CONCLUSIONS: Use of TH with CD resulted in more bleeding events and blood product transfusion but there was no difference in hospital mortality

Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of image-informed tumor habitats in a murine model of glioma

Abstract Tumors exhibit high molecular, phenotypic, and physiological heterogeneity. In this effort, we employ quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data to capture this heterogeneity through imaging-based subregions or “habitats” in a murine model of glioma. We then demonstrate the ability to model and predict the growth of the habitats using coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in the presence and absence of radiotherapy. Female Wistar rats (N = 21) were inoculated intracranially with 106 C6 glioma cells, a subset of which received 20 Gy (N = 5) or 40 Gy (N = 8) of radiation. All rats underwent diffusion-weighted and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI at up to seven time points. All MRI data at each visit were subsequently clustered using k-means to identify physiological tumor habitats. A family of four models consisting of three coupled ODEs were developed and calibrated to the habitat time series of control and treated rats and evaluated for predictive capability. The Akaike Information Criterion was used for model selection, and the normalized sum-of-square-error (SSE) was used to evaluate goodness-of-fit in model calibration and prediction. Three tumor habitats with significantly different imaging data characteristics (p < 0.05) were identified: high-vascularity high-cellularity, low-vascularity high-cellularity, and low-vascularity low-cellularity. Model selection resulted in a five-parameter model whose predictions of habitat dynamics yielded SSEs that were similar to the SSEs from the calibrated model. It is thus feasible to mathematically describe habitat dynamics in a preclinical model of glioma using biology-based ODEs, showing promise for forecasting heterogeneous tumor behavior

Ultrasound curriculum taught by first-year medical students: A four-year experience in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND:Diagnostic imaging is an integral aspect of care that is often insufficient, if not altogether absent, in rural and remote regions of low to middle income countries (LMICs) such as Tanzania. The introduction of ultrasound can significantly impact treatment in these countries due to its portability, low cost, safety, and usefulness in various medical assessments. This study reviews the implementation of a four-week ultrasound course administered annually from 2013-2016 in a healthcare professional school in Mwanza, Tanzania by first-year allopathic US medical students. METHODS:Participants (n=582, over 4 years) were recruited from the Tandabui Institute of Health Sciences and Technology to take the ultrasound course. Subjects were predominantly clinical officer students, but other participants included other healthcare professional students, practicing healthcare professionals, and school employees. Data collected includes pre-course examination scores, post-course examination scores, course quiz scores, demographic surveys, and post-course feedback surveys. Data was analyzed using two-tailed t-tests and the single factor analysis of variance (ANOVA). RESULTS:For all participants who completed both the pre- and post-course examinations (n=229, 39.1% of the total recruited), there was a significant mean improvement in their ultrasound knowledge of 42.5%, P&lt;0.01. CONCLUSION:Our data suggests that trained first-year medical students can effectively teach a point of care ultrasound course to healthcare professional students within four weeks in Tanzania. Future investigation into the level of long-term knowledge retention, impact of ultrasound training on knowledge of human anatomy and diagnostic capabilities, and how expansion of an ultrasound curriculum has impacted access to care in rural Tanzania is warranted