Derivation and validation of a simple, accurate and robust prediction rule for risk of mortality in patients with Clostridium difficile infection.

Published onlineJournal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tBACKGROUND: Clostridium difficile infection poses a significant healthcare burden. However, the derivation of a simple, evidence based prediction rule to assist patient management has not yet been described. METHOD: Univariate, multivariate and decision tree procedures were used to deduce a prediction rule from over 186 variables; retrospectively collated from clinical data for 213 patients. The resulting prediction rule was validated on independent data from a cohort of 158 patients described by Bhangu et al. (Colorectal Disease, 12(3):241-246, 2010). RESULTS: Serum albumin levels (g/L) (P = 0.001), respiratory rate (resps /min) (P = 0.002), C-reactive protein (mg/L) (P = 0.034) and white cell count (mcL) (P = 0.049) were predictors of all-cause mortality. Threshold levels of serum albumin ≤ 24.5 g/L, C- reactive protein >228 mg/L, respiratory rate >17 resps/min and white cell count >12 × 10(3) mcL were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. A simple four variable prediction rule was devised based on these threshold levels and when tested on the initial data, yield an area under the curve score of 0.754 (P < 0.001) using receiver operating characteristics. The prediction rule was then evaluated using independent data, and yield an area under the curve score of 0.653 (P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Four easily measurable clinical variables can be used to assess the risk of mortality of patients with Clostridium difficile infection and remains robust with respect to independent data.This work was funded by University of Exeter, Systems Biology Initiative, a small grants fund from the RD&E NHS Trust and The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula (PenCLAHRC). This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health in England

Simulation Modelling in Ophthalmology : Application to Cost Effectiveness of Ranibizumab and Aflibercept for the Treatment of Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration in the United Kingdom

Previously developed models in ophthalmology have generally used a Markovian structure. There are a number of limitations with this approach, most notably the ability to base patient outcomes on best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) in both eyes, which may be overcome using a different modelling structure. Simulation modelling allows for this to be modelled more precisely, and therefore may provide more accurate and relevant estimates of the cost effectiveness of ophthalmology interventions

Non-thermal emission processes in massive binaries

In this paper, I present a general discussion of several astrophysical processes likely to play a role in the production of non-thermal emission in massive stars, with emphasis on massive binaries. Even though the discussion will start in the radio domain where the non-thermal emission was first detected, the census of physical processes involved in the non-thermal emission from massive stars shows that many spectral domains are concerned, from the radio to the very high energies. First, the theoretical aspects of the non-thermal emission from early-type stars will be addressed. The main topics that will be discussed are respectively the physics of individual stellar winds and their interaction in binary systems, the acceleration of relativistic electrons, the magnetic field of massive stars, and finally the non-thermal emission processes relevant to the case of massive stars. Second, this general qualitative discussion will be followed by a more quantitative one, devoted to the most probable scenario where non-thermal radio emitters are massive binaries. I will show how several stellar, wind and orbital parameters can be combined in order to make some semi-quantitative predictions on the high-energy counterpart to the non-thermal emission detected in the radio domain. These theoretical considerations will be followed by a census of results obtained so far, and related to this topic... (see paper for full abstract)Comment: 47 pages, 5 postscript figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics Review. Astronomy and Astrophysics Review, in pres

Towards Electrosynthesis in Shewanella: Energetics of Reversing the Mtr Pathway for Reductive Metabolism

Bioelectrochemical systems rely on microorganisms to link complex oxidation/reduction reactions to electrodes. For example, in Shewanella oneidensis strain MR-1, an electron transfer conduit consisting of cytochromes and structural proteins, known as the Mtr respiratory pathway, catalyzes electron flow from cytoplasmic oxidative reactions to electrodes. Reversing this electron flow to drive microbial reductive metabolism offers a possible route for electrosynthesis of high value fuels and chemicals. We examined electron flow from electrodes into Shewanella to determine the feasibility of this process, the molecular components of reductive electron flow, and what driving forces were required. Addition of fumarate to a film of S. oneidensis adhering to a graphite electrode poised at −0.36 V versus standard hydrogen electrode (SHE) immediately led to electron uptake, while a mutant lacking the periplasmic fumarate reductase FccA was unable to utilize electrodes for fumarate reduction. Deletion of the gene encoding the outer membrane cytochrome-anchoring protein MtrB eliminated 88% of fumarate reduction. A mutant lacking the periplasmic cytochrome MtrA demonstrated more severe defects. Surprisingly, disruption of menC, which prevents menaquinone biosynthesis, eliminated 85% of electron flux. Deletion of the gene encoding the quinone-linked cytochrome CymA had a similar negative effect, which showed that electrons primarily flowed from outer membrane cytochromes into the quinone pool, and back to periplasmic FccA. Soluble redox mediators only partially restored electron transfer in mutants, suggesting that soluble shuttles could not replace periplasmic protein-protein interactions. This work demonstrates that the Mtr pathway can power reductive reactions, shows this conduit is functionally reversible, and provides new evidence for distinct CymA:MtrA and CymA:FccA respiratory units

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Measurement of the Forward-Backward Asymmetry in the B -> K(*) mu+ mu- Decay and First Observation of the Bs -> phi mu+ mu- Decay

We reconstruct the rare decays $B^+ \to K^+\mu^+\mu^-$, $B^0 \to K^{*}(892)^0\mu^+\mu^-$, and $B^0_s \to \phi(1020)\mu^+\mu^-$ in a data sample corresponding to $4.4 {\rm fb^{-1}}$ collected in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=1.96 {\rm TeV}$ by the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. Using $121 \pm 16$ $B^+ \to K^+\mu^+\mu^-$ and $101 \pm 12$ $B^0 \to K^{*0}\mu^+\mu^-$ decays we report the branching ratios. In addition, we report the measurement of the differential branching ratio and the muon forward-backward asymmetry in the $B^+$ and $B^0$ decay modes, and the $K^{*0}$ longitudinal polarization in the $B^0$ decay mode with respect to the squared dimuon mass. These are consistent with the theoretical prediction from the standard model, and most recent determinations from other experiments and of comparable accuracy. We also report the first observation of the $B^0_s \to \phi\mu^+\mu^- decay and measure its branching ratio${\mathcal{B}}(B^0_s \to \phi\mu^+\mu^-) = [1.44 \pm 0.33 \pm 0.46] \times 10^{-6}$using$27 \pm 6$signal events. This is currently the most rare$B^0_s$ decay observed.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Measurements of the properties of Lambda_c(2595), Lambda_c(2625), Sigma_c(2455), and Sigma_c(2520) baryons

We report measurements of the resonance properties of Lambda_c(2595)+ and Lambda_c(2625)+ baryons in their decays to Lambda_c+ pi+ pi- as well as Sigma_c(2455)++,0 and Sigma_c(2520)++,0 baryons in their decays to Lambda_c+ pi+/- final states. These measurements are performed using data corresponding to 5.2/fb of integrated luminosity from ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV, collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. Exploiting the largest available charmed baryon sample, we measure masses and decay widths with uncertainties comparable to the world averages for Sigma_c states, and significantly smaller uncertainties than the world averages for excited Lambda_c+ states.Comment: added one reference and one table, changed order of figures, 17 pages, 15 figure

Search for a New Heavy Gauge Boson Wprime with Electron + missing ET Event Signature in ppbar collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV

We present a search for a new heavy charged vector boson $W^\prime$ decaying to an electron-neutrino pair in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96\unit{TeV}. The data were collected with the CDF II detector and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 5.3\unit{fb}^{-1}. No significant excess above the standard model expectation is observed and we set upper limits on $\sigma\cdot{\cal B}(W^\prime\to e\nu)$. Assuming standard model couplings to fermions and the neutrino from the $W^\prime$ boson decay to be light, we exclude a $W^\prime$ boson with mass less than 1.12\unit{TeV/}c^2 at the 95\unit{%} confidence level.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures Submitted to PR