A UK financial conditions index using targeted data reduction: forecasting and structural identification

A financial conditions index(FCI)is designed to summarise the state of financial markets. We construct two with UK data. The first is the first principal component(PC)of a set of financial indicators. The second comes from a new approach taking information from a large set of macroeconomic variables weighted by the joint covariance with a subset of the financial indicators (a set of spreads), using multivariate partial least squares, again using the first factor. The resulting FCIs are broadly similar. They both have some forecasting power for monthly GDP in a quasi-real-time recursive evaluation from 2011-2014 and outperform an FCI produced by Goldman Sachs. A second factor, that may be interpreted as a monetary conditions index, adds further forecast power, while third factors have a mixed effect on performance. The FCIs are used to improve identification of credit supply shocks in an SVAR. The main effects relative to an SVAR excluding an FCI of the (adverse) credit shock IRFs are to make the positive impact on inflation more precise and to reveal an increased positive impact on spreads

Constraints on convergence: hydrophobic hind legs allow some male pollinator fig wasps early access to submerged females

Pollinator fig wasps (Hymenoptera: Agaonidae) display numerous adaptations linked to their obligate association with fig trees (Ficus). Ceratosolen fig wasps pollinate figs that often fill temporarily with liquid, and one clade has males with unusually long hind legs. We investigated their morphology and behaviour. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) revealed that the cuticle of their hind legs is highly modified and covered with numerous hydrophobic setae and microtrichia that can prevent blockage of the wasps’ large propodeal spiracles by liquids. In deep liquid, the males floated on the surface, but when only a thin layer of liquid was present, the legs allowed males to access females without the risk of drowning. Access to females was facilitated by an air bubble that forms between the hind legs and maintains a column of air between the spiracles and the centre of the figs. Sexual selection should favour males that can gain earlier access to mates, and the modified legs represent an adaptation to achieve this. Convergent adaptations are known in some unrelated non-pollinating fig wasps that develop in similar liquid-filled figs, but these species have enlarged hydrophobic peritremata at the ends of their metasoma to protect the spiracles located there. Unlike non-pollinating fig wasps, pollinator males need to insert their metasoma deep into females’ galls during mating. This difference in mating behaviour has constrained the extent of convergence

Experience of primary care among homeless individuals with mental health conditions

The delivery of primary care to homeless individuals with mental health conditions presents unique challenges. To inform healthcare improvement, we studied predictors of favorable primary care experience among homeless persons with mental health conditions treated at sites that varied in degree of homeless-specific service tailoring. This was a multi-site, survey-based comparison of primary care experiences at three mainstream primary care clinics of the Veterans Administration (VA), one homeless-tailored VA clinic, and one tailored non-VA healthcare program. Persons who accessed primary care service two or more times from July 2008 through June 2010 (N = 366) were randomly sampled. Predictor variables included patient and organization characteristics suggested by the patient perception model developed by Sofaer and Firminger (2005), with an emphasis on mental health. The primary care experience was assessed with the Primary Care Quality-Homeless (PCQ-H) questionnaire, a validated survey instrument. Multiple regression identified predictors of positive experiences (i.e. higher PCQ-H total score). Significant predictors of a positive experience included a site offering tailored service design, perceived choice among providers, and currently domiciled status. There was an interaction effect between site and severe psychiatric symptoms. For persons with severe psychiatric symptoms, a homeless-tailored service design was significantly associated with a more favorable primary care experience. For persons without severe psychiatric symptoms, this difference was not significant. This study supports the importance of tailored healthcare delivery designed for homeless persons' needs, with such services potentially holding special relevance for persons with mental health conditions. To improve patient experience among the homeless, organizations may want to deliver services that are tailored to homelessness and offer a choice of providers

Site-specific associations of muscle thickness with bone mineral density in middle-aged and older men and women

It is unknown whether age-related site-specific muscle loss is associated with areal bone mineral density (aBMD) in older adults. To examine the relationships between aBMD and whole-body muscle thickness distribution, 97 healthy adults (46 women and 51 men) aged 50–78 years volunteered. Total and appendicular lean soft tissue mass, aBMD of the lumbar spine (LS-aBMD) and femoral neck (FN-aBMD) were determined using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Muscle thickness (MT) was measured by ultrasound at nine sites of the body (forearm, upper arm, trunk, upper leg, and lower leg). Relationships of each co-variate with aBMD were tested partialling out the effect of age. aBMD was not correlated with either MT of the trunk or anterior lower leg in either sex. In men, significant and relatively strong correlations were observed between anterior and posterior upper arms, posterior lower leg, and anterior upper leg MT and LS-aBMD or FN-aBMD. In women, significant correlations were observed between anterior and posterior upper legs, posterior lower leg, and anterior upper arm MT and FN-aBMD. LS-aBMD was only correlated with forearm and posterior upper leg MT in women. In conclusion, the site-specific association of MT and aBMD differs between sexes and may be associated with the participants’ daily physical activity profile

Real-world practice level data analysis confirms link between variability within Blood Glucose Monitoring Strip (BGMS) and glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) in Type 1 Diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Our aim was to quantify the impact of Blood Glucose Monitoring Strips variability (BGMSV) at GP practice level on the variability of reported glycated haemoglobin (HbA1cV) levels. METHODS: Overall GP Practice BGMSV and HbA1cV were calculated from the quantity of main types of BGMS being prescribed combined with the published accuracy, as % results within ±% bands from reference value for the selected strip type. The regression coefficient between the BGMSV and HbA1cV was calculated. To allow for the aggregation of estimated three tests/day over 13 weeks (ie, 300 samples) of actual Blood Glucose (BG) values up to the HbA1c, we multiplied HbA1cV coefficient by √300 to estimate an empirical value for impact of BGMSV on BGV. RESULTS: Four thousand five hundred and twenty-four practice years with 159 700 T1DM patient years where accuracy data were available for more than 80% of strips prescribed were included, with overall BGMSV 6.5% and HbA1c mean of 66.9 mmol/mol (8.3%) with variability of 13 mmol/mol equal to 19% of the mean. At a GP practice level, BGMSV and HbA1cV as % of mean HbA1c (in other words, the spread of HbA1c) were closely related with a regression coefficient of 0.176, P ±4.5 mmol/L from target, compared with the best performing BGMS with BG >±2.2 mmol/L from reference on 1/20 occasions. CONCLUSION: Use of more variable/less accurate BGMS is associated both theoretically and in practice with a larger variability in measured BG and HbA1c, with implications for patient confidence in their day-to-day monitoring experience

Edging your bets: advantage play, gambling, crime and victimisation

Consumerism, industrial development and regulatory liberalisation have underpinned the ascendance of gambling to a mainstream consumption practice. In particular, the online gambling environment has been marketed as a site of ‘safe risks’ where citizens can engage in a multitude of different forms of aleatory consumption. This paper offers a virtual ethnography of an online ‘advantage play’ subculture. It demonstrates how advantage players have reinterpreted the online gambling landscape as an environment saturated with crime and victimisation. In this virtual world, advantage play is no longer simply an instrumental act concerned with profit accumulation to finance consumer desires. Rather, it acts as an opportunity for individuals to engage in a unique form of edgework, whereby the threat to one’s well-being is tested through an ability to avoid crime and victimisation. This paper demonstrates how mediated environments may act as sites for edgeworking and how the potential for victimisation can be something that is actively engaged with

A feasibility trial to examine the social norms approach for the prevention and reduction of licit and illicit drug use in European University and college students.

Background: Incorrect perceptions of high rates of peer alcohol and tobacco use are predictive of increased personal use in student populations. Correcting misperceptions by providing feedback has been shown to be an effective intervention for reducing licit drug use. It is currently unknown if social norms interventions are effective in preventing and reducing illicit drug use in European students. The purpose of this paper is to describe the design of a multi-site cluster controlled trial of a web-based social norms intervention aimed at reducing licit and preventing illicit drug use in European university students. Methods/Design: An online questionnaire to assess rates of drug use will be developed and translated based on existing social norms surveys. Students from sixteen universities in seven participating European countries will be invited to complete the questionnaire. Both intervention and control sites will be chosen by convenience. In each country, the intervention site will be the university that the local principal investigator is affiliated with. We aim to recruit 1000 students per site (baseline assessment). All participants will complete the online questionnaire at baseline. Baseline data will be used to develop social norms messages that will be included in a web-based intervention. The intervention group will receive individualized social norms feedback. The website will remain online during the following 5 months. After five months, a second survey will be conducted and effects of the intervention on social norms and drug use will be measured in comparison to the control site. Discussion: This project is the first cross-national European collaboration to investigate the feasibility of a social norms intervention to reduce licit and prevent illicit drug use among European university students. Final trial registration number DRKS00004375 on the ‘German Clinical Trials Register’.This study is funded by the European Commission, Directorate General Justice, Freedom and Security (JLS/2009-2010/DPIP/AG

Hysteresis phenomenon in turbulent convection

Coherent large-scale circulations of turbulent thermal convection in air have been studied experimentally in a rectangular box heated from below and cooled from above using Particle Image Velocimetry. The hysteresis phenomenon in turbulent convection was found by varying the temperature difference between the bottom and the top walls of the chamber (the Rayleigh number was changed within the range of $10^7 - 10^8$). The hysteresis loop comprises the one-cell and two-cells flow patterns while the aspect ratio is kept constant ($A=2 - 2.23$). We found that the change of the sign of the degree of the anisotropy of turbulence was accompanied by the change of the flow pattern. The developed theory of coherent structures in turbulent convection (Elperin et al. 2002; 2005) is in agreement with the experimental observations. The observed coherent structures are superimposed on a small-scale turbulent convection. The redistribution of the turbulent heat flux plays a crucial role in the formation of coherent large-scale circulations in turbulent convection.Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures, REVTEX4, Experiments in Fluids, 2006, in pres

Validation of the SCID-hu Thy/Liv mouse model with four classes of licensed antiretrovirals.

BackgroundThe SCID-hu Thy/Liv mouse model of HIV-1 infection is a useful platform for the preclinical evaluation of antiviral efficacy in vivo. We performed this study to validate the model with representatives of all four classes of licensed antiretrovirals.Methodology/principal findingsEndpoint analyses for quantification of Thy/Liv implant viral load included ELISA for cell-associated p24, branched DNA assay for HIV-1 RNA, and detection of infected thymocytes by intracellular staining for Gag-p24. Antiviral protection from HIV-1-mediated thymocyte depletion was assessed by multicolor flow cytometric analysis of thymocyte subpopulations based on surface expression of CD3, CD4, and CD8. These mice can be productively infected with molecular clones of HIV-1 (e.g., the X4 clone NL4-3) as well as with primary R5 and R5X4 isolates. To determine whether results in this model are concordant with those found in humans, we performed direct comparisons of two drugs in the same class, each of which has known potency and dosing levels in humans. Here we show that second-generation antiretrovirals were, as expected, more potent than their first-generation predecessors: emtricitabine was more potent than lamivudine, efavirenz was more potent than nevirapine, and atazanavir was more potent than indinavir. After interspecies pharmacodynamic scaling, the dose ranges found to inhibit viral replication in the SCID-hu Thy/Liv mouse were similar to those used in humans. Moreover, HIV-1 replication in these mice was genetically stable; treatment of the mice with lamivudine did not result in the M184V substitution in reverse transcriptase, and the multidrug-resistant NY index case HIV-1 retained its drug-resistance substitutions.ConclusionGiven the fidelity of such comparisons, we conclude that this highly reproducible mouse model is likely to predict clinical antiviral efficacy in humans

Evaluating the Quality of Research into a Single Prognostic Biomarker: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of 83 Studies of C-Reactive Protein in Stable Coronary Artery Disease

Background Systematic evaluations of the quality of research on a single prognostic biomarker are rare. We sought to evaluate the quality of prognostic research evidence for the association of C-reactive protein (CRP) with fatal and nonfatal events among patients with stable coronary disease. Methods and Findings We searched MEDLINE (1966 to 2009) and EMBASE (1980 to 2009) and selected prospective studies of patients with stable coronary disease, reporting a relative risk for the association of CRP with death and nonfatal cardiovascular events. We included 83 studies, reporting 61,684 patients and 6,485 outcome events. No study reported a prespecified statistical analysis protocol; only two studies reported the time elapsed (in months or years) between initial presentation of symptomatic coronary disease and inclusion in the study. Studies reported a median of seven items (of 17) from the REMARK reporting guidelines, with no evidence of change over time. The pooled relative risk for the top versus bottom third of CRP distribution was 1.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.78–2.17), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 79.5). Only 13 studies adjusted for conventional risk factors (age, sex, smoking, obesity, diabetes, and low-density lipoprotein [LDL] cholesterol) and these had a relative risk of 1.65 (95% CI 1.39–1.96), I2 = 33.7. Studies reported ten different ways of comparing CRP values, with weaker relative risks for those based on continuous measures. Adjusting for publication bias (for which there was strong evidence, Egger's p<0.001) using a validated method reduced the relative risk to 1.19 (95% CI 1.13–1.25). Only two studies reported a measure of discrimination (c-statistic). In 20 studies the detection rate for subsequent events could be calculated and was 31% for a 10% false positive rate, and the calculated pooled c-statistic was 0.61 (0.57–0.66). Conclusion Multiple types of reporting bias, and publication bias, make the magnitude of any independent association between CRP and prognosis among patients with stable coronary disease sufficiently uncertain that no clinical practice recommendations can be made. Publication of prespecified statistical analytic protocols and prospective registration of studies, among other measures, might help improve the quality of prognostic biomarker research