Projections of annual rainfall and surface temperature from CMIP5 models over the BIMSTEC countries

Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand brings together 21% of the world population. Thus the impact of climate change in this region is a major concern for all. To study the climate change, fifth phase of Climate Model Inter-comparison Project models have been used to project the climate for the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 over the BIMSTEC countries for the period 1901 to 2100 (initial 105 years are historical period and the later 95 years are projected period). Climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the historical period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall has been compared with observations from multiple sources and temperature has been compared with the data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) during the historical period. Comparison reveals that ensemble mean of the models is able to represent the observed spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over the BIMSTEC countries. Therefore, data from these models may be used to study the future changes in the 21st century. Four out of six models show that the rainfall over India, Thailand and Myanmar has decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka show an increasing trend in both the RCP scenarios. In case of temperature, all the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both the scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. The rate of increase/decrease in rainfall and temperature are relatively more in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 over all these countries. Inter-model comparison show that there are uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections. More similar studies are required to be done for better understanding the model uncertainties in climate projections over this region

Impact of vegetation on the simulation of seasonal monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent using a regional model

The change in the type of vegetation fraction can induce major changes in the local effects such as local evaporation, surface radiation, etc., that in turn induces changes in the model simulated outputs. The present study deals with the effects of vegetation in climate modeling over the Indian region using the MM5 mesoscale model. The main objective of the present study is to investigate the impact of vegetation dataset derived from SPOT satellite by ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) versus that of USGS (United States Geological Survey) vegetation dataset on the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon. The present study has been conducted for five monsoon seasons (1998-2002), giving emphasis over the two contrasting southwest monsoon seasons of 1998 (normal) and 2002 (deficient). The study reveals mixed results on the impact of vegetation datasets generated by ISRO and USGS on the simulations of the monsoon. Results indicate that the ISRO data has a positive impact on the simulations of the monsoon over northeastern India and along the western coast. The MM5- USGS has greater tendency of overestimation of rainfall. It has higher standard deviation indicating that it induces a dispersive effect on the rainfall simulation. Among the five years of study, it is seen that the RMSE of July and JJAS (June-July-August-September) for All India Rainfall is mostly lower for MM5-ISRO. Also, the bias of July and JJAS rainfall is mostly closer to unity for MM5-ISRO. The wind fields at 850 hPa and 200 hPa are also better simulated by MM5 using ISRO vegetation. The synoptic features like Somali jet and Tibetan anticyclone are simulated closer to the verification analysis by ISRO vegetation. The 2 m air temperature is also better simulated by ISRO vegetation over the northeastern India, showing greater spatial variability over the region. However, the JJAS total rainfall over north India and Deccan coast is better simulated using the USGS vegetation. Sensible heat flux over north-west India is also better simulated by MM5-USGS

Seasonal prediction skill of winter temperature over North India

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Tiwari, P.R., Kar, S.C., Mohanty, U.C. et al. Theor Appl Climatol (2016) 124: 15. The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1397-y. © Springer-Verlag Wien 2015.The climatology, amplitude error, phase error, and mean square skill score (MSSS) of temperature predictions from five different state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) have been examined for the winter (December–January– February) seasons over North India. In this region, temperature variability affects the phenological development processes of wheat crops and the grain yield. The GCM forecasts of temperature for a whole season issued in November from various organizations are compared with observed gridded temperature data obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 1982–2009. The MSSS indicates that the models have skills of varying degrees. Predictions of maximum and minimum temperature obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system model (NCEP_CFSv2) are compared with station level observations from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE). It has been found that when the model temperatures are corrected to account the bias in the model and actual orography, the predictions are able to delineate the observed trend compared to the trend without orography correction.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Cdc25A phosphatase: a key cell cycle protein that regulates neuron death in disease and development

Cell cycle molecules are mostly dormant in differentiated neurons that are post-mitotic and in the G0 state of the cell cycle. However, a wealth of evidence strongly suggests that in response to a wide variety of apoptotic stimuli, including trophic factor deprivation, exposure to β-amyloid (Aβ) and DNA damage, neurons emerge from theG0 state with aberrant expression/activation of cell cycle proteins.1 This emergence is characterized by a consistent set of events related to the cell cycle that culminate in neuron death. Initial responses include activation of G1/S cyclin-dependent kinases (Cdks), such as Cdk4 that in turn phosphorylate retinoblastoma (pRb) family proteins and lead to dissociation of repressor complexes comprising E2F and pRb proteins, so that E2F-binding genes are de-repressed. Among genes that are de-repressed by loss of E2F-Rb family complexes are the B- and C-myb transcription factors that in turn transactivate Bim, a pro-apoptotic protein that promotes caspase activation and subsequent neuron death.1–4 This set of events has been termed the ‘apoptotic cell cycle pathway’.Cell division cycle 25A (Cdc25A), a member of a family comprising Cdc25A, B and C, is a dual specificity phosphatase that dephosphorylates inhibitory phosphates on adjacent threonine and tyrosine residues of Cdks such as Cdk4.5 This step is essential for initiation of cell cycle in proliferating cells. However, it was not known whether in the non-dividing neurons, the same events would activate the apoptotic cell cycle pathway. In our recent paper published in Cell Death Discovery,6 we report several novel findings regarding the potential role of Cdc25A in neuron death. First, Cdc25A is required for activation of the apoptotic cell cycle pathway and neuron death in response to nerve growth factor (NGF) deprivation and Aβ treatment. Second, Cdc25A acts upstream of Cdk-mediated Rb phosphorylation and caspase-3 cleavage. Third, NGF deprivation and Aβ lead to rapid increases in Cdc25A mRNA and protein levels. NGF withdrawal causes an increase in Cdc25A activity as well. These events occur at about the same time that apoptotic insults lead to Cdk4 activation and Rb phosphorylation in our experimental systems and well precede evident signs of neuron death

Seizures as the first manifestation of chromosome 22q11.2 deletion syndrome in a 40-year old man: a case report

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

Sensitivity of the Himalayan orography representation in simulation of winter precipitation using Regional Climate Model (RegCM) nested in a GCM

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Tiwari, P.R., Kar, S.C., Mohanty, U.C., Climate Dynamics (2017). The final publication is available at Springer via https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-017-3567-3. The Accepted Manuscript is under embargo. Embargo end date: 24 February 2018.The role of the Himalayan orography representationin a Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) nested inNCMRWF global spectral model is examined in simulatingthe winter circulation and associated precipitation over theNorthwest India (NWI; 23°–37.5°N and 69°–85°E) region.For this purpose, nine different set of orography representationsfor nine distinct precipitation years (three years eachfor wet, normal and dry) have been considered by increasing(decreasing) 5, 10, 15, and 20% from the mean height(CNTRL) of the Himalaya in RegCM4 model. Validationwith various observations revealed a good improvementin reproducing the precipitation intensity and distributionwith increased model height compared to the resultsobtained from CNTRL and reduced orography experiments.Further it has been found that, increase in heightby 10% (P10) increases seasonal precipitation about 20%,while decrease in height by 10% (M10) results around 28%reduction in seasonal precipitation as compared to CNTRLexperiment over NWI region. This improvement in precipitationsimulation comes due to better representation ofvertical pressure velocity and moisture transport as thesefactors play an important role in wintertime precipitationprocesses over NWI region. Furthermore, a comparison of model-simulated precipitation with observed precipitationat 17 station locations has been also carried out. Overall,the results suggest that when the orographic increment of10% (P10) is applied on RegCM4 model, it has better skillin simulating the precipitation over the NWI region andthis model is a useful tool for further regional downscalingstudies.Peer reviewe

Immunological and molecular epidemiological characteristics of acute and fulminant viral hepatitis A

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hepatitis A virus is an infection of liver; it is hyperendemic in vast areas of the world including India. In most cases it causes an acute self limited illness but rarely fulminant. There is growing concern about change in pattern from asymptomatic childhood infection to an increased incidence of symptomatic disease in the adult population.</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>In-depth analysis of immunological, viral quantification and genotype of acute and fulminant hepatitis A virus.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Serum samples obtained from 1009 cases of suspected acute viral hepatitis was employed for different biochemical and serological examination. RNA was extracted from blood serum, reverse transcribed into cDNA and amplified using nested PCR for viral quantification, sequencing and genotyping. Immunological cell count from freshly collected whole blood was carried out by fluorescence activated cell sorter.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Fulminant hepatitis A was mostly detected with other hepatic viruses. CD8⁺T cells count increases in fulminant hepatitis to a significantly high level (P = 0.005) compared to normal healthy control. The immunological helper/suppressor (CD4⁺/CD8⁺) ratio of fulminant hepatitis was significantly lower compared to acute cases. The serologically positive patients were confirmed by RT-PCR and total of 72 (69.2%) were quantified and sequenced. The average quantitative viral load of fulminant cases was significantly higher (<it>P </it>< 0.05). There was similar genotypic distribution in both acute and fulminant category, with predominance of genotype IIIA (70%) compared to IA (30%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Immunological factors in combination with viral load defines the severity of the fulminant hepatitis A. Phylogenetic analysis of acute and fulminant hepatitis A confirmed genotypes IIIA as predominant against IA with no preference of disease severity.</p

The cost of severe haemophilia in Europe: the CHESS study

Background Severe haemophilia is associated with major psychological and economic burden for patients, caregivers, and the wider health care system. This burden has been quantified and documented for a number of European countries in recent years. However, few studies have taken a standardised methodology across multiple countries simultaneously, and sought to amalgamate all three levels of burden for severe disease. The overall aim of the ‘Cost of Haemophilia in Europe: a Socioeconomic Survey’ (CHESS) study was to capture the annualised economic and psychosocial burden of severe haemophilia in five European countries. A cross-section of haemophilia specialists (surveyed between January and April 2015) provided demographic and clinical information and 12-month ambulatory and secondary care activity for patients via an online survey. In turn, patients provided corresponding direct and indirect non-medical cost information, including work loss and out-of-pocket expenses, as well as information on quality of life and adherence. The direct and indirect costs for the patient sample were calculated and extrapolated to population level. Results Clinical reports for a total of 1,285 patients were received. Five hundred and fifty-two patients (43% of the sample) provided information on indirect costs and health-related quality of life via the PSC. The total annual cost of severe haemophilia across the five countries for 2014 was estimated at EUR 1.4 billion, or just under EUR 200,000 per patient. The highest per-patient costs were in Germany (mean EUR 319,024) and the lowest were in the United Kingdom (mean EUR 129,365), with a study average of EUR 199,541. As expected, consumption of clotting factor replacement therapy represented the vast majority of costs (up to 99%). Indirect costs are driven by patient and caregiver work loss. Conclusions The results of the CHESS study reflect previous research findings suggesting that costs of factor replacement therapy account for the vast majority of the cost burden in severe haemophilia. However, the importance of the indirect impact of haemophilia on the patient and family should not be overlooked. The CHESS study highlights the benefits of observational study methodologies in capturing a ‘snapshot’ of information for patients with rare diseases

Studying the Underlying Event in Drell-Yan and High Transverse Momentum Jet Production at the Tevatron

We study the underlying event in proton-antiproton collisions by examining the behavior of charged particles (transverse momentum pT > 0.5 GeV/c, pseudorapidity |\eta| < 1) produced in association with large transverse momentum jets (~2.2 fb-1) or with Drell-Yan lepton-pairs (~2.7 fb-1) in the Z-boson mass region (70 < M(pair) < 110 GeV/c2) as measured by CDF at 1.96 TeV center-of-mass energy. We use the direction of the lepton-pair (in Drell-Yan production) or the leading jet (in high-pT jet production) in each event to define three regions of \eta-\phi space; toward, away, and transverse, where \phi is the azimuthal scattering angle. For Drell-Yan production (excluding the leptons) both the toward and transverse regions are very sensitive to the underlying event. In high-pT jet production the transverse region is very sensitive to the underlying event and is separated into a MAX and MIN transverse region, which helps separate the hard component (initial and final-state radiation) from the beam-beam remnant and multiple parton interaction components of the scattering. The data are corrected to the particle level to remove detector effects and are then compared with several QCD Monte-Carlo models. The goal of this analysis is to provide data that can be used to test and improve the QCD Monte-Carlo models of the underlying event that are used to simulate hadron-hadron collisions.Comment: Submitted to Phys.Rev.

Measurement of Lifetime and Decay-Width Difference in B0s -> J/psi phi Decays

We measure the mean lifetime, tau=2/(Gamma_L+Gamma_H), and the width difference, DeltaGamma=Gamma_L-Gamma_H, of the light and heavy mass eigenstates of the B0s meson, B0sL and B0sH, in B0s -> J/psi phi decays using 1.7 fb^-1 of data collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron ppbar collider. Assuming CP conservation, a good approximation for the B0s system in the Standard Model, we obtain DeltaGamma = 0.076^+0.059_-0.063 (stat.) +- 0.006 (syst.) ps^-1 and tau = 1.52 +- 0.04 (stat.) +- 0.02 (syst.) ps, the most precise measurements to date. Our constraints on the weak phase and DeltaGamma are consistent with CP conservation. Dedicated to the memory of our dear friend and colleague, Michael P. Schmid