Maintaining credibility when communicating uncertainty: The role of communication format

Research into risk communication has commonly highlighted the disparity between the meaning intended by the communicator and what is understood by the recipient. Such miscommunications will have implications for perceived trust and expertise of the communicator, but it is not known whether this differs according to the communication format. We examined the effect of using verbal, numerical and mixed communication formats on perceptions of credibility and correctness, as well as whether they influenced a decision to evacuate, both before and after an ‘erroneous’ prediction (i.e. an ‘unlikely’ event occurs, or a ‘likely’ event does not occur). We observed no effect of communication format on any of the measures pre-outcome, but found the numerical format was perceived as less incorrect, as well as more credible than the other formats after an ‘erroneous’ prediction, but only when low probability expressions were used. Our findings suggest numbers should be used in consequential risk communications

Factors associated with poor self-reported health within the UK military and comparisons with the general population: a cohort study

Objective: To investigate the self-rated health of the UK military and explore factors associated with poor self-rated health. Compare self-rated health of the military to the general population. / Design: A cohort study. / Participants: A total of 7626 serving and ex-serving UK military personnel, aged between 25 and 49; 19,452,300 civilians from England and Wales. / Setting: United Kingdom (military), England and Wales (civilians). / Main outcome measures: Self rated health for both populations. Additional data for the military sample included measures of symptoms of common mental disorder (General Health Questionnaire-12), probable post-traumatic stress disorder (post-traumatic stress disorder checklist Civilian Version), alcohol use (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test), smoking behaviour, history of self-harm and body mass index. / Results: In the military sample, poor self-rated health was significantly associated with: common mental disorders and post-traumatic stress disorder symptomology, a history of self-harm, being obese, older age (ages 35–49) and current smoking status. However, the majority of military personnel report good health, with levels of poor self-rated health (13%) not significantly different to those reported by the general population (12.1%). / Conclusions: Self-rated health appears to relate to aspects of both physical and psychological health. The link between poor self-rated health and psychological ill-health emphasises the need for military support services to continue addressing mental health problems

Tolerance of high-intensity focused ultrasound ablation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: High-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) ablation is a relatively new, noninvasive way of ablation for treating hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Emerging evidence has shown that it is effective for the treatment of HCC, even in patients with poor liver function. There is currently no data on the safety limit of HIFU ablation in patients with cirrhosis. However, this information is vital for the selection of appropriate patients for the procedure. We analyzed HCC patients who had undergone HIFU ablation and determined the lower limit of liver function and other patient factors with which HCC patients can tolerate this treatment modality. METHODS: Preoperative variables of 100 patients who underwent HIFU ablation for HCC were analyzed to identify the risk factors in HIFU intolerance in terms of stress-induced complications. Factors that may contribute to postablation complications were compared. RESULTS: Thirteen (13 %) patients developed a total of 18 complications. Morbidity was mainly due to skin and subcutaneous tissue injuries (n = 9). Five patients had first-degree skin burn, one had second-degree skin burn, and three had third-degree skin burn. Four complications were grade 3a in the Clavien classification and 14 were below this grade. Univariate analysis showed that age (p = 0.022) was the only independent factor in HIFU intolerance. CONCLUSIONS: HIFU ablation is generally well tolerated in HCC patients with cirrhosis. It is safe for Child-Pugh A and B patients and selected Child-Pugh C patients. With this new modality, HCC patients who were deemed unsalvageable by other surgical means in the past because of simultaneous Child-Pugh B or C disease now have a new hope.published_or_final_versio

The case for inclusive area profiling applied in geographic information systems

This paper introduces the history and role of consultation processes of contemporary planning and, after presenting the popularity and criticisms of different practices including communities in urban decision making, it explores how rational planning tools like the geographic information system (GIS) could be exploited to reshape consultation and formally include subjective data in traditional area profiling. Focusing on the popular consultation tool of community mapping, primary and secondary research methods (a literature review, seven interviews to planners and two observational studies) identified seven different problems with contemporary community mapping: spatial and temporal scale, generalisation, integration, representativeness, accessibility, relatedness and visualisation. The conceptualisation, physical modelling and testing of a new community mapping procedure ‘Submap’ is then used to address these problems and discuss (a) the strengths and limitations of formalising community mapping activities for area profiling in GIS and (b) the role of pragmatic research in promoting inclusive practices in contemporary planning

Understanding ‘Unlikely (20% Likelihood)’ or ‘20% Likelihood (Unlikely)’ Outcomes: The Robustness of the Extremity Effect

Calls to communicate uncertainty using mixed, verbal‐numerical formats (‘unlikely [0–33%]’) have stemmed from research comparing mixed with solely verbal communications. Research using the new ‘which outcome’ approach to investigate understanding of verbal probability expressions suggests, however, that mixed formats might convey disadvantages compared with purely numerical communications. When asked to indicate an outcome that is ‘unlikely’, participants have been shown to often indicate outcomes with a value exceeding the maximum value shown, equivalent to a 0% probability —an ‘extremity effect’. Recognising the potential consequences of communication recipients expecting an ‘unlikely’ event to never occur, we extend the ‘which outcome’ work across four experiments, using verbal, numerical, and verbal‐numerical communication formats, as well as a previously unconsidered numerical‐verbal format. We examine how robust the effect is in the context of consequential outcomes and over non‐normal distributions. We also investigate whether participants are aware of the inconsistency in their responses from a traditional ‘how likely’ and ‘which outcome’ task. We replicate and extend previous findings, with preference for extreme outcomes (including above maximum values) observed in both verbal and verbal‐numerical formats. Our results suggest caution in blanket usage of recently recommended verbal‐numerical formats for the communication of uncertainty

Dynamic variation of supernatant quality in a dairy shed waste stabilisation pond system

An intensive monitoring program of a standard two-stage dairy shed waste stabilisation pond system was undertaken to determine the incidence and extent of spatial and temporal variation of basic physio-chemical parameters, and to shed light on the longer term dynamic nature of in-pond conditions. The anaerobicâfacultative pond system, located in a remote rural area, treats wastewater from the hosing down and hydraulic flushing of the milking parlour and holding yard at the farm dairy shed. A number of multi-parameter water quality field monitoring probes were permanently deployed at various locations within the two ponds to enable continuous measurement of temperature, pH, conductivity and dissolved oxygen. In addition, profiling of the supernatant of both ponds was undertaken at different times of the year to examine vertical variation of the same parameters. Continuous monitoring revealed spatial homogeneity in EC and pH levels in the upper metre of both ponds. Physio-chemical parameters also appear to change uniformly across the ponds in response to external stimuli such as rainfall. Neither pond, however, exhibits homogeneity down the profile of the supernatant. Seasonal stratification is prevalent in the facultative pond suggesting poor vertical mixing, while the anaerobic pond is notably affected by sludge accumulation. A long-term pattern of rising conductivity in both ponds indicated accumulation of dissolved salt species in the system due to recirculation of reclaimed effluent for hydraulic flushing of the dairy shed. In the facultative pond, diurnal fluctuations in dissolved oxygen, oxidation-reduction potential and turbidity during warmer months of the year closely followed temperature swings. The extensive data collected in this study provides a detailed picture of the physio-chemical dynamics of two-stage stabilisation pond systems treating dairy shed wastewater

Noninterventional statistical comparison of BTS and CHEST guidelines for size and severity in primary pneumothorax.

Hilar rather than apical interpleural distance more accurately predicts need for intercostal chest drain insertion http://ow.ly/JvKFYThe study was funded by the East Anglian Thoracic Society. M.Z. Nikolić is a Wellcome Trust PhD Programme for Clinicians Fellow at the University of Cambridge. S.J. Marciniak is a Medical Research Council Senior Clinical Fellow. J. Wason is funded by the Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre. Funding information for this article has been deposited with FundRef.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the European Respiratory Society via http://dx.doi.org/10.1183/09031936.0011861

Evidence of an active volcanic heat source beneath the Pine Island Glacier

Tectonic landforms reveal that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) lies atop a major volcanic rift system. However, identifying subglacial volcanism is challenging. Here we show geochemical evidence of a volcanic heat source upstream of the fast-melting Pine Island Ice Shelf, documented by seawater helium isotope ratios at the front of the Ice Shelf cavity. The localization of mantle helium to glacial meltwater reveals that volcanic heat induces melt beneath the grounded glacier and feeds the subglacial hydrological network crossing the grounding line. The observed transport of mantle helium out of the Ice Shelf cavity indicates that volcanic heat is supplied to the grounded glacier at a rate of ~ 2500 ± 1700 MW, which is ca. half as large as the active Grimsvötn volcano on Iceland. Our finding of a substantial volcanic heat source beneath a major WAIS glacier highlights the need to understand subglacial volcanism, its hydrologic interaction with the marine margins, and its potential role in the future stability of the WAIS

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns